Alefarm Brewing AS (ALEFRM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Alefarm Brewing AS is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 1.18 – kr 5.35 · fair‑value band kr 0.3500 – kr 0.5400 · the kr 2.95 price screens above the kr 0.4500 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 12, 2026.
Alefarm Brewing A/S, a craft brewery, produces, markets, and sells beers to consumers and distributors worldwide. It offers non-alcoholic, natural, and barrel-aged beers, as well as beers in can. The company was incorporated in 2015 and is based in Greve, Denmark.
Stock analysis
Alefarm Brewing AS (ALEFRM) currently trades at kr 2.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 0.4500, implying the stock looks roughly 555.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of kr 0.9500 per share, and 0 of the 10 models we run sit above the kr 2.95 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 0.3800, and 10 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: kr 0.3500 (bear) to kr 0.5400 (bull), the price of kr 2.95 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Alefarm Brewing AS reported revenue of 11.5M DKK in FY2025 versus 8.6M DKK in FY2021, a compound +7.5%/yr. Reported net income was −1.5M DKK in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 38.5M DKK (≈ $6.0M) · P/S ratio 3.09 · EPS (TTM) kr −0.1100 · Net margin −13.2% · Return on equity −17.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −21.3% · Operating margin −8.1% · Revenue (TTM) 11.5M DKK.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 154% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at −85%, ALEFRM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Alefarm Brewing AS reported revenue of 11.5M DKK in FY2025 versus 8.6M DKK in FY2021, a compound +7.5%/yr. Reported net income was −1.5M DKK in FY2025.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.48/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
11.5M DKK
Latest YoY
+16.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (7Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.3%
EBIT margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−50.7% (2020) → −10.3% (2025)
Value creation/yr ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alefarm Brewing AS Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALEFRM
Peer Group
Beverages - Brewers · 58 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation
Quality Score66 · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−7% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−13% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth14% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Brewers median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.73× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.47× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF8.5× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA10.9× · Pricier than median
What the price implies (reverse DCF)
The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Alefarm Brewing AS deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.
Implied FCF growth, 10 years+26.4 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+12.4 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+2.9 %
FCF yield on price1.65 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models11.5 %
The price demands an acceleration versus past growth: a high bar the company still has to clear. Ranking of the largest stocks →
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE0· sector 32
FUTURE71· sector 0
PAST0· sector 35
HEALTH100· sector 97
DIVIDEND0· sector 65
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Alcohol
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Brewers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 12, 2026).
Is Alefarm Brewing AS (ALEFRM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 0.4500 versus a price of kr 2.95, about −85% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ALEFRM?
Our model-based fair value for Alefarm Brewing AS is kr 0.4500 (as of Sep 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 2.95.
What is the quality score of ALEFRM?
Alefarm Brewing AS has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alefarm Brewing AS (ALEFRM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 0.4500 (as of Sep 12, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 0.3500, optimistic scenario kr 0.5400. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alefarm Brewing AS stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 0.4500, about −85% upside versus a price of kr 2.95 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 0.3500, optimistic scenario kr 0.5400. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alefarm Brewing AS (ALEFRM)?
Alefarm Brewing AS reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 11.5M DKK (latest available figure, as of Sep 12, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of ALEFRM?
The net profit margin of Alefarm Brewing AS is about −13.2%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.
What growth is priced into Alefarm Brewing AS (ALEFRM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Alefarm Brewing AS would have to grow free cash flow by +26.4 % per year for ten years (discount rate 11.5 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.4 % per year. As of Sep 12, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ALEFRM use?
Our models discount Alefarm Brewing AS at 11.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.67, country premium for Denmark. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is the intrinsic value of Alefarm Brewing AS (ALEFRM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alefarm Brewing AS it is kr 0.4500 per share (as of Sep 12, 2026), against a price of kr 2.95. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alefarm Brewing AS stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 12, 2026, ALEFRM trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 2.95, fair value kr 0.4500, a gap of about −85% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALEFRM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 2.95); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 0.4500). For Alefarm Brewing AS the two are kr 2.50 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alefarm Brewing AS worth?
The market values Alefarm Brewing AS at about 38.5M DKK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 12, 2026). Per share that is kr 2.95; our models calculate a fair value of kr 0.4500 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALEFRM?
Our models span a range for Alefarm Brewing AS: cautious scenario kr 0.3500, base kr 0.4500, optimistic kr 0.5400 per share (as of Sep 12, 2026, price kr 2.95). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alefarm Brewing AS (ALEFRM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alefarm Brewing AS (as of Sep 12, 2026): return on equity −17.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALEFRM from its 52-week high?
Alefarm Brewing AS trades at kr 2.95, about 40% below its 52-week high of kr 4.88 and 154% above the low of kr 1.16 (as of Sep 12, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 0.4500 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alefarm Brewing AS?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Anheuser-Busch InBev SA, Heineken N.V, Ambev S.A, Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A., among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alefarm Brewing AS stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 12, 2026: price kr 2.95, calculated fair value kr 0.4500 (−85%), Quality Score 66/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALEFRM calculated?
We run Alefarm Brewing AS through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 0.4500, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 31.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Alefarm Brewing AS itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on <a href="/is-it-worth-investing-now/">is it worth investing now</a>.
What should I pay attention to with Alefarm Brewing AS right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 0.5400). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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