Alefarm Brewing AS (ALEFRM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 26, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Alefarm Brewing AS stock DKK 1.41, price DKK 2.87, upside -50.9%, quality 65 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value above price?No
Good quality?Yes
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 1.18 – kr 5.15 · fair‑value band kr 0.8300 – kr 2.20 · the kr 2.87 price screens above the kr 1.41 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 24, 2026.
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Alefarm Brewing A/S, a craft brewery, produces, markets, and sells beers to consumers and distributors worldwide. It offers non-alcoholic, natural, and barrel-aged beers, as well as beers in can. The company was incorporated in 2015 and is based in Greve, Denmark.
Stock analysis
Alefarm Brewing AS (ALEFRM) currently trades at kr 2.87, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 1.41, 50.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of kr 1.41 per share, and 0 of the 10 models we run sit above the kr 2.87 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 0.3200, and 10 of the 10 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: kr 0.8300 (bear) to kr 2.20 (bull), the price of kr 2.87 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Alefarm Brewing AS reported revenue of 11.5M DKK in FY2025 versus 8.6M DKK in FY2021, a compound +7.5%/yr. Reported net income was −1.5M DKK in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 37.4M DKK (≈ $5.6M) Micro · P/E ratio 287.0 · P/S ratio 2.99 · EPS (TTM) kr 0.0100 · Net margin −13.2% · Return on equity −6.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −21.3% · Operating margin 3.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 15 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 72% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −2% fair-value upside, at −51%, ALEFRM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bearkr 0.8300Fair Value kr 1.41Bullkr 2.20
Price kr 2.87 · Upside -50.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 0.0082 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.48/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.3%
’18
’19
’20
’21
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’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−50.7% (2020) → −10.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+26.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Denmark: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.0% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +24.1% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Brewers · 56 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Above median
Fair Value upside−50.9% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−17.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−4.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)3.6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)12.8% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Beverages - Brewers median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)287.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B5.12× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)3.06× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow59.1× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA35.6× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 32
FUTURE (revenue growth)64· sector 13
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 33
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 63
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alefarm Brewing AS Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALEFRM
Frequently asked questions
Is Alefarm Brewing AS (ALEFRM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 1.41 versus a price of kr 2.87, about −51% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ALEFRM?
Our model-based fair value for Alefarm Brewing AS is kr 1.41 (as of Oct 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 2.87.
What is the quality score of ALEFRM?
Alefarm Brewing AS has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alefarm Brewing AS (ALEFRM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 1.41 (as of Oct 24, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 0.8300, optimistic scenario kr 2.20. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alefarm Brewing AS stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 1.41, about −51% upside versus a price of kr 2.87 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 0.8300, optimistic scenario kr 2.20. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alefarm Brewing AS (ALEFRM)?
Alefarm Brewing AS reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 12.2M DKK (latest available figure, as of Oct 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Alefarm Brewing AS (ALEFRM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Alefarm Brewing AS would have to grow free cash flow by +26.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.4 % per year. As of Oct 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ALEFRM use?
Our models discount Alefarm Brewing AS at 8.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.69, country premium for Denmark. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Alefarm Brewing AS that is +26.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Alefarm Brewing AS (ALEFRM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Alefarm Brewing AS grew +12.4 % a year. The price currently implies +26.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Alefarm Brewing AS (ALEFRM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Alefarm Brewing AS (+26.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Alefarm Brewing AS (ALEFRM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.69 %: that much free cash flow Alefarm Brewing AS produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Alefarm Brewing AS (ALEFRM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alefarm Brewing AS it is kr 1.41 per share (as of Oct 24, 2026), against a price of kr 2.87. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alefarm Brewing AS stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 24, 2026, ALEFRM trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 2.87, fair value kr 1.41, a gap of about −51% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALEFRM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 2.87); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 1.41). For Alefarm Brewing AS the two are kr 1.46 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alefarm Brewing AS worth?
The market values Alefarm Brewing AS at about 37.4M DKK (market capitalisation, as of Oct 24, 2026). Per share that is kr 2.87; our models calculate a fair value of kr 1.41 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALEFRM?
Our models span a range for Alefarm Brewing AS: cautious scenario kr 0.8300, base kr 1.41, optimistic kr 2.20 per share (as of Oct 24, 2026, price kr 2.87). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ALEFRM?
Alefarm Brewing AS trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 287.0 (as of Oct 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 1.41 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 5.1, P/S 3.1, EV/EBITDA 35.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alefarm Brewing AS (ALEFRM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alefarm Brewing AS (as of Oct 24, 2026): return on equity −6.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALEFRM from its 52-week high?
Alefarm Brewing AS trades at kr 2.87, about 36% below its 52-week high of kr 4.48 and 72% above the low of kr 1.67 (as of Oct 26, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 1.41 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alefarm Brewing AS?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Anheuser-Busch InBev SA, Heineken N.V, Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A., Constellation Brands, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alefarm Brewing AS stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 24, 2026: price kr 2.87, calculated fair value kr 1.41 (−51%), Quality Score 65/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALEFRM calculated?
We run Alefarm Brewing AS through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 1.41, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Alefarm Brewing AS itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alefarm Brewing AS (ALEFRM)?
The closing price on Oct 26, 2026 was kr 2.87. Our model-based fair value is kr 1.41, about −51% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alefarm Brewing AS right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 2.20). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide (kr 0.8300 to kr 2.20). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Alefarm Brewing AS
How large is the market capitalisation of Alefarm Brewing AS (ALEFRM)?
The market capitalisation of Alefarm Brewing AS is 37.4M DKK (≈ $5.6M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alefarm Brewing AS (ALEFRM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alefarm Brewing AS is 2.99 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alefarm Brewing AS (ALEFRM)?
Earnings per share at Alefarm Brewing AS are kr 0.0100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 287.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Alefarm Brewing AS (ALEFRM)?
The net margin of Alefarm Brewing AS is −13.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alefarm Brewing AS (ALEFRM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alefarm Brewing AS is −6.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alefarm Brewing AS (ALEFRM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alefarm Brewing AS is −21.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alefarm Brewing AS (ALEFRM)?
The operating margin of Alefarm Brewing AS is 3.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alefarm Brewing AS (ALEFRM)?
Revenue at Alefarm Brewing AS is growing +12.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does Alefarm Brewing AS (ALEFRM) hold?
Alefarm Brewing AS holds more cash than debt, 1.0M DKK net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Oct 24, 2026