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Alligator Energy Limited (ALGEF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Alligator Energy Limited $0.03, price $0.03, upside -3.0%, quality 20 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Energy · US · Home Australia

AE Alligator Energy Limited logo Thin data Sep 13, 2026

Alligator Energy Limited

ALGEF · US

Low PriorityFair Value upside is limited and quality is weak.

·Fair value $0.0252 · Fairly valued (−3.0%)
!Quality 20/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 3y +225.1 %/yr)
!negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (3/6)
!Narrow moat 8/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$0.0950 $0.0120 Fair Value $0.0252 Sep 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.0120 – $0.0950 · the $0.0260 price screens above the $0.0252 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

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Company profile

Alligator Energy Limited engages in uranium and other energy mineral exploration and potential future development activities in Australia. The company explores uranium, nickel, cobalt, and copper. Its flagship properties are the Samphire Uranium Project; Big Lake Uranium Project; and Alligator Rivers Uranium Province, located in South Australia.

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Alligator Energy Limited engages in uranium and other energy mineral exploration and potential future development activities in Australia. The company explores uranium, nickel, cobalt, and copper. Its flagship properties are the Samphire Uranium Project; Big Lake Uranium Project; and Alligator Rivers Uranium Province, located in South Australia. Alligator Energy Limited was incorporated in 2009 and is based in Spring Hill, Australia.

Stock analysis

Alligator Energy Limited (ALGEF) currently trades at $0.0260, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.0252, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 3.0%).

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 20/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Alligator Energy Limited reported revenue of $1.1M in FY2025 versus $11.7K in FY2019, a compound +113.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$5.9M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $120M · Return on equity −8.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −4.1% · Operating margin −227,173% · Revenue (TTM) $1.1M · Revenue growth (YoY) −0.4% · Free cash flow −$13.1M · Net cash $30.0M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high and 117% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −61% fair-value upside, at −3%, ALGEF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $0.0100 $0.0100 $0.0100 53
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.0100 $0.0100 $0.0100 53

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 20/100

Of which business quality 27 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55

Profitability 1
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 28
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 40
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 56
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 69
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 20
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 24/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+225.1%
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+113.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−57,298.3% (2019) → −242.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Uranium · 22 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/5 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 27 · Below median
Fair Value upside −28.1% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets −4.7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −0.4% · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Uranium median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.55× · Cheaper than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Uranium stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Cameco Corporation CCJ $87.04 $10.11 −88%
Centrus Energy Corp LEU $138.18 $55.95 −60%
CGN Mining Company 1164 HK$2.12 HK$1.38 −35%
Uranium Royalty Corp UROY $3.97 $1.62 −59%
Deep Yellow Limited DYL A$1.17 A$0.4300 −63%
Boss Energy Limited BOE A$1.54 A$0.6000 −61%
Atha Energy Corp SASK C$1.07 C$0.4100 −62%
enCore Energy Corp EU C$1.45 C$1.12 −23%
Berkeley Energia Limited BKY A$0.4500 A$0.1600 −64%
Anfield Energy Inc AEC C$5.18 C$1.57 −70%

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Alligator Energy Limited · Fair Value
$0.0252 −3%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alligator Energy Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALGEF

Frequently asked questions

Is Alligator Energy Limited (ALGEF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.0252 versus a price of $0.0260, about −3% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of ALGEF?
Our model-based fair value for Alligator Energy Limited is $0.0252 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.0260.
What is the quality score of ALGEF?
Alligator Energy Limited has a Quality Score of 20/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alligator Energy Limited (ALGEF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.0252 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 1 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alligator Energy Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.0252, about −3% upside versus a price of $0.0260 (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alligator Energy Limited (ALGEF)?
Alligator Energy Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.1M (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Alligator Energy Limited (ALGEF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alligator Energy Limited it is $0.0252 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of $0.0260. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alligator Energy Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, ALGEF trades above its calculated fair value: price $0.0260, fair value $0.0252, a gap of about −3% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALGEF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.0260); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.0252). For Alligator Energy Limited the two are $0.0008 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alligator Energy Limited worth?
The market values Alligator Energy Limited at about $120M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is $0.0260; our models calculate a fair value of $0.0252 per share.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alligator Energy Limited (ALGEF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alligator Energy Limited (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity −8.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 20/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALGEF from its 52-week high?
Alligator Energy Limited trades at $0.0260, about 47% below its 52-week high of $0.0492 and 117% above the low of $0.0120 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.0252 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alligator Energy Limited?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Cameco Corporation, Centrus Energy Corp, CGN Mining Company, Uranium Royalty Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alligator Energy Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price $0.0260, calculated fair value $0.0252 (−3%), Quality Score 20/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALGEF calculated?
We run Alligator Energy Limited through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.0252, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Alligator Energy Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alligator Energy Limited (ALGEF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $0.0260. Our model-based fair value is $0.0252, about −3% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alligator Energy Limited right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of Alligator Energy Limited

How large is the market capitalisation of Alligator Energy Limited (ALGEF)?
The market capitalisation of Alligator Energy Limited is $120M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the return on equity of Alligator Energy Limited (ALGEF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alligator Energy Limited is −8.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alligator Energy Limited (ALGEF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alligator Energy Limited is −4.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alligator Energy Limited (ALGEF)?
The operating margin of Alligator Energy Limited is −227,173% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alligator Energy Limited (ALGEF)?
Revenue at Alligator Energy Limited is growing −0.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +225%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Alligator Energy Limited (ALGEF) generate?
The free cash flow of Alligator Energy Limited is −$13.1M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Alligator Energy Limited (ALGEF) hold?
Alligator Energy Limited holds more cash than debt, $30.0M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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