Align Technology, Inc (ALGN) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $12.8B
Align Technology, Inc
ALGN · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Share price −8.7% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 25% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($157.57). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $124.88 – $729.92 · fair‑value band $94.54 – $157.57 · the $169.08 price screens above the $126.05 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Align Technology, Inc (ALGN) currently trades at $169.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $126.05, implying the stock looks roughly 25.5% overvalued today. We read business quality at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Align Technology, Inc generated revenue of $4.1B at a net margin of 10.5%. Revenue grew 6.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $965M. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $94.54 (bear case) to $157.57 (bull case); at $169.08, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -43% fair-value upside, at -25%, ALGN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($200.72) versus Asset-Based ($37.88). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 71 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Align Technology, Inc. provides Invisalign clear aligners, Vivera retainers, and iTero intraoral scanners and services in the United States, Switzerland, and internationally.
Full company description
Align Technology, Inc. provides Invisalign clear aligners, Vivera retainers, and iTero intraoral scanners and services in the United States, Switzerland, and internationally. The company's Clear Aligner segment offers Invisalign comprehensive package to treat adults and teens malocclusion and features, and orthodontic needs of teenage or younger patients; and Invisalign First Phase I and Invisalign First Comprehensive Phase 2 package for younger patients between the ages of six and ten years with a mixture of primary/baby and permanent teeth. This segment also provides Invisalign express, Invisalign lite, and Invisalign moderate; Invisalign Go, Invisalign Go express, and Invisalign Go Plus; retention products, Invisalign training, adjusting tools used by dental professionals during treatment, ancillary Invisalign accessory products, and other oral health products; Invisalign Professional Whitening system; Invisalign Palatal Expander, a 3D printed orthodontic device; and 3D printing solutions. Its Imaging Systems and CAD/CAM Services segment offers iTero intraoral scanning system, a single hardware platform for restorative or orthodontic procedures; exocad, a computer-aided design and computer-aided manufacturing software; orthodontist software for digital records storage, orthodontic diagnosis, and fabrication of printed models and retainers; and restorative software for general practitioner dentists, prosthodontists, periodontists, and oral surgeons. This segment also offers Invisalign outcome simulator, a chair-side and cloud-based application for the iTero scanner; Invisalign progress assessment tool; Align Oral Health Suite, a digital interface for dental consultations; iTero TimeLapse technology for doctors or practitioners to compare a patient's historic 3D scans to the present-day scan; and subscription software, disposables, rents scanners, and pay per scan services. Align Technology, Inc. was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Tempe, Arizona.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Align Technology, Inc reported revenue of $4.0B in FY2025 versus $4.0B in FY2021, a compound +0.5%/yr. Reported net income was $410M in FY2025, compounding −14.6%/yr from FY2021.
ALGN screens 25% overvalued. Compare with Intuitive Surgical, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- ALGN Q2 Deep Dive: Clear Aligner Volumes Grow, Guidance Flags Scanner Mix Shift
- Align Technology (ALGN) Reports Record Q2 Revenue, Is The Stock Still Below Fair Value?
- ALGN Stock Up Post Q2 Earnings and Revenue Beat, Margins Rise
- ALGN Q2 Earnings Call Highlights Digital Growth Push
Peer Group
Medical Instruments & Supplies · 204 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Medical Instruments & Supplies median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Medical Instruments & Supplies stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Intuitive Surgical, Inc ISRG | $402.33 | $150.04 | -63% |
| EssilorLuxottica Société anonyme 1EL | €175.00 | €70.52 | -60% |
| Medline Inc MDLN | $41.11 | $30.15 | -27% |
| Becton, Dickinson and Company BDX | $150.65 | $103.53 | -31% |
| Alcon Inc ALC | $70.26 | $39.78 | -43% |
| ResMed Inc RMD | $203.87 | $187.89 | -8% |
| West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc WST | $353.71 | $143.97 | -59% |
| Straumann Holding STMN | CHF 106.00 | CHF 47.31 | -55% |
| Sartorius Stedim Biotech S.A DIM | €188.50 | €51.16 | -73% |
| Coloplast A/S COLOB | kr 414.00 | kr 382.22 | -8% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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