Alm. Brand A/S (ALMB) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · DK · Market cap 22.6B DKK
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from kr 12.85 to kr 12.87 (+0.2%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price +3.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 25% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 16.09). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 7.96 – kr 18.10 · fair‑value band kr 9.66 – kr 16.09 · the kr 17.10 price screens above the kr 12.87 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Alm. Brand A/S (ALMB) currently trades at kr 17.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 12.87, implying the stock looks roughly 24.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Alm. Brand A/S generated revenue of 13.8B DKK at a net margin of 8.9%. Revenue declined 7.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.8%. Net debt stands at 1.4B DKK. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from kr 9.66 (bear case) to kr 16.09 (bull case); at kr 17.10, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -12% fair-value upside, at -25%, ALMB screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (kr 12.27) versus Asset-Based (kr 5.87). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Alm. Brand A/S, together with its subsidiaries, provides non-life insurance products and services in Denmark. It offers car, travel, home, contents, accident, and holiday home insurance; as well as salary security, dog, health, change of ownership, seller's liability, veteran vehicle, motorcycle, moped, boat, youth, drone, horse, caravan, and child accident …
Full company description
Alm. Brand A/S, together with its subsidiaries, provides non-life insurance products and services in Denmark. It offers car, travel, home, contents, accident, and holiday home insurance; as well as salary security, dog, health, change of ownership, seller's liability, veteran vehicle, motorcycle, moped, boat, youth, drone, horse, caravan, and child accident insurance. In addition, the company provides business, workers' compensation, professional liability, electric car, truck, construction, building, and cyber insurance. Further, it offers other direct insurance products to private households, agricultural, small and medium-sized enterprises, and corporates through its sales channels and partnerships. The company was founded in 1792 and is headquartered in Copenhagen, Denmark.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Alm. Brand A/S reported revenue of kr 13.4B in FY2025 versus kr 5.2B in FY2021, a compound +26.3%/yr. Reported net income was kr 1.4B in FY2025, compounding +22.6%/yr from FY2021.
ALMB screens 25% overvalued. Compare with Berkshire Hathaway Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Alm. Brand A/S – Weekly report on share buybacks
- Alm Brand AS (OCSE:ALMB) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Insurance Service Result and ...
- Alm. Brand A/S - Interim report for Q2
- Alm. Brand A/S - Capital reduction by cancellation of treasury shares
Peer Group
Insurance - Diversified · 84 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Berkshire Hathaway Inc BRKB | 8,562 MXN | 10,844 MXN | +27% |
| Allianz SE ALV | €421.00 | €369.31 | -12% |
| Zurich Insurance Group ZURN | CHF 624.40 | CHF 619.80 | -1% |
| AXA SA AXAN | 888.28 MXN | 1,249 MXN | +41% |
| Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A G | €42.90 | €12.18 | -72% |
| Sun Life Financial Inc SLF | C$114.20 | C$87.83 | -23% |
| BB Seguridade Participações S.A BBSE3 | R$40.71 | R$60.39 | +48% |
| Tryg A/S TRYG | kr 154.00 | kr 116.45 | -24% |
| PT Sinar Mas Multiartha Tbk SMMA | 20,625 IDR | 4,176 IDR | -80% |
| Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A CXSE3 | R$21.77 | R$18.60 | -15% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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