Alm. Brand (ALMB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Alm. Brand DKK 7.87, price DKK 16.58, upside -52.5%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 7.96 – kr 18.10 · fair‑value band kr 5.90 – kr 9.83 · the kr 16.58 price screens above the kr 7.87 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Alm. Brand A/S, together with its subsidiaries, provides non-life insurance products and services in Denmark.
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Alm. Brand A/S, together with its subsidiaries, provides non-life insurance products and services in Denmark. It offers car, travel, home, contents, accident, and holiday home insurance; as well as salary security, dog, health, change of ownership, seller's liability, veteran vehicle, motorcycle, moped, boat, youth, drone, horse, caravan, and child accident insurance. In addition, the company provides business, workers' compensation, professional liability, electric car, truck, construction, building, and cyber insurance. Further, it offers other direct insurance products to private households, agricultural, small and medium-sized enterprises, and corporates through its sales channels and partnerships. The company was founded in 1792 and is headquartered in Copenhagen, Denmark.
Stock analysis
Alm. Brand (ALMB) currently trades at kr 16.58, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 7.87, implying the stock looks roughly 110.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of kr 12.27 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the kr 16.58 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 5.87, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 5.90 (bear) to kr 9.83 (bull), the price of kr 16.58 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Alm. Brand reported revenue of 13.4B DKK in FY2025 versus 5.2B DKK in FY2021, a compound +26.3%/yr. Reported net income was 1.4B DKK in FY2025, compounding +22.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 24.2B DKK (≈ $3.7B) · P/E ratio 18.4 · P/S ratio 1.86 · EPS (TTM) kr 0.9000 · Dividend yield 4.0% · Net margin 10.1% · Return on equity 9.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −53%, ALMB screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 5.90Fair Value kr 7.87Bull kr 9.83
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 0.1756 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.73/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.8% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+2.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−1.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−1% vs 2%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 12%
2025 sits 133% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+13.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Denmark: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.0% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +11.0% a year for the price and −0.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (44 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Diversified · 83 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−53% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10% · Below median
Return on assets4% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)9% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)11% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−8% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)4.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.09× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)18.4× · Pricier than median
P/B2.02× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)1.76× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF3.7× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA8.8× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 5
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 31
PAST (return on equity)39· sector 49
HEALTH (low debt)95· sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)80· sector 72
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alm. Brand Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALMB
Frequently asked questions
Is Alm. Brand (ALMB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 7.87 versus a price of kr 16.58, about −53% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ALMB?
Our model-based fair value for Alm. Brand is kr 7.87 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 16.58.
What is the quality score of ALMB?
Alm. Brand has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alm. Brand (ALMB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 7.87 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 5.90, optimistic scenario kr 9.83. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alm. Brand stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 7.87, about −53% upside versus a price of kr 16.58 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 5.90, optimistic scenario kr 9.83. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alm. Brand (ALMB)?
Alm. Brand reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 13.8B DKK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Alm. Brand pay a dividend?
Alm. Brand currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.98% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Alm. Brand (ALMB)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Alm. Brand would have to grow free cash flow by +13.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ALMB use?
Our models discount Alm. Brand at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.08, country premium for Denmark. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Alm. Brand that is +13.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Alm. Brand (ALMB) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Alm. Brand grew +11.4 % a year. The price currently implies +13.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Alm. Brand (ALMB) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Alm. Brand (+13.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Alm. Brand (ALMB)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.17 %: that much free cash flow Alm. Brand produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Alm. Brand (ALMB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alm. Brand it is kr 7.87 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of kr 16.58. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alm. Brand stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ALMB trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 16.58, fair value kr 7.87, a gap of about −53% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALMB?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 16.58); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 7.87). For Alm. Brand the two are kr 8.71 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alm. Brand worth?
The market values Alm. Brand at about 24.2B DKK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is kr 16.58; our models calculate a fair value of kr 7.87 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALMB?
Our models span a range for Alm. Brand: cautious scenario kr 5.90, base kr 7.87, optimistic kr 9.83 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price kr 16.58). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ALMB?
Alm. Brand trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 7.87 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.0, P/S 1.8, EV/EBITDA 8.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alm. Brand (ALMB)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alm. Brand (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 9.8%, debt of 0.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALMB from its 52-week high?
Alm. Brand trades at kr 16.58, about 8% below its 52-week high of kr 18.09 and 13% above the low of kr 14.66 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 7.87 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alm. Brand?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Allianz SE, Zurich Insurance Group, AXA SA, Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alm. Brand stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price kr 16.58, calculated fair value kr 7.87 (−53%), Quality Score 64/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALMB calculated?
We run Alm. Brand through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 7.87, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Alm. Brand itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alm. Brand (ALMB)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was kr 16.58. Our model-based fair value is kr 7.87, about −53% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alm. Brand right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 9.83). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Alm. Brand (ALMB) come from?
Earnings per share at Alm. Brand grew −3.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −1.6 %, EBIT margin −1.3 %, tax rate −1.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Alm. Brand
How large is the market capitalisation of Alm. Brand (ALMB)?
The market capitalisation of Alm. Brand is 24.2B DKK (≈ $3.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alm. Brand (ALMB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alm. Brand is 1.86 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alm. Brand (ALMB)?
Earnings per share at Alm. Brand are kr 0.9000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Alm. Brand (ALMB)?
The dividend yield of Alm. Brand is 4.0% (payout 73.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Alm. Brand (ALMB)?
The net margin of Alm. Brand is 10.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alm. Brand (ALMB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alm. Brand is 9.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alm. Brand (ALMB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alm. Brand is 2.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alm. Brand (ALMB)?
The operating margin of Alm. Brand is 11.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alm. Brand (ALMB)?
Revenue at Alm. Brand is growing −7.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alm. Brand (ALMB)?
Earnings per share at Alm. Brand are growing −29.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Alm. Brand (ALMB) carry?
The net debt of Alm. Brand is 1.4B DKK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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