Astellas Pharma Inc (ALPMY) Fair Value & Analysis

Healthcare · US · Market cap $23.8B

A solid business, screening 57% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

• The rarer combination: high quality (74/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
• The price is below even our cautious bear case ($17.37). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $8.26 – $16.77 · fair‑value band $17.37 – $28.94 · the $14.79 price screens below the $23.16 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.

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Analysis

Astellas Pharma Inc (ALPMY) currently trades at $14.79, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $23.16, implying the stock looks roughly 56.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Astellas Pharma Inc generated revenue of $2.1T at a net margin of 13.6%. Revenue grew 20.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 17.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $35.8B. Fundamentals as of Jul 24, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $17.37 (bear case) to $28.94 (bull case); at $14.79, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 68% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -25% fair-value upside, at 57%, ALPMY screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($27.10) versus Asset-Based ($4.59). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Astellas Pharma Inc. manufactures, markets, imports, and exports pharmaceuticals in Japan and internationally. The company offers XTANDI, a treatment for prostate cancer; XOSPATA, a treatment for acute myeloid leukemia; VYLOY, a treatment for gastric cancer; and PADCEV, a treatment for patients with metastatic urothelial cancer.

Full company description

Astellas Pharma Inc. manufactures, markets, imports, and exports pharmaceuticals in Japan and internationally. The company offers XTANDI, a treatment for prostate cancer; XOSPATA, a treatment for acute myeloid leukemia; VYLOY, a treatment for gastric cancer; and PADCEV, a treatment for patients with metastatic urothelial cancer. It also provides VEOZAH, a treatment for vasomotor symptoms due to menopause; IZERVAY, a treatment for geographic atrophy secondary to age-related macular degeneration; EVRENZO, a treatment for anemia associated with chronic kidney disease; Betanis/Myrabetriq/BETMIGA, a treatment for overactive bladder; and Prograf, an immunosuppressant. It has a research collaboration with xFOREST Therapeutics to develop RNA-targeted therapies and a partnership agreement with Roche Diabetes Care Japan Co., Ltd. to develop and commercialize an integrated diabetes self-management solution. It offers its products to oncology, ophthalmology, urology, immunology, and women's health areas. The company was formerly known as Yamanouchi Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd. and changed its name to Astellas Pharma Inc. in April 2005. Astellas Pharma Inc. was founded in 1923 and is headquartered in Chuo, Japan.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Astellas Pharma Inc reported revenue of $2.3T in FY2026 versus $1.3T in FY2022, a compound +15.0%/yr. Reported net income was $309B in FY2026, compounding +25.6%/yr from FY2022.

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Peer Group

Drug Manufacturers - General · 76 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Drug Manufacturers - General median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.