Alior Bank S.A. (ALR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Alior Bank S.A. PLN 185, price PLN 140, upside +31.7%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 18.67 PLN – 143.70 PLN · fair‑value band 138.39 PLN – 230.64 PLN · the 140.15 PLN price screens below the 184.51 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Alior Bank S.A. provides various banking products and services for individuals, businesses, and enterprises in Poland. The company operates through three segments: Retail, Corporate, and Treasury Activities.
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Alior Bank S.A. provides various banking products and services for individuals, businesses, and enterprises in Poland. The company operates through three segments: Retail, Corporate, and Treasury Activities. It offers retail products, including cash loans, credit cards, current account overdraft facilities, and mortgage loans; term and savings deposits; brokerage products and investment funds; personal accounts; cash deposits, withdrawals, and transfers; and currency exchange transactions. The company also provides corporate products, such as overdraft limits in current accounts, working capital loans, investment loans, and credit cards; current and subsidiary accounts; term deposits; cash deposits and withdrawals and transfers; FX exchange transactions; derivative instruments; and leasing and factoring. In addition, it offers bills, trade finance, internet banking, and operating and financial leasing services, as well as issues commercial bonds. In addition, it offers retirement pension products and investments fund services, as well as operates currency trading platforms. Further, it provides stock broking, financial advisory, intermediation, and other financial services. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Warsaw, Poland.
Stock analysis
Alior Bank S.A. (ALR) currently trades at 140.15 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 184.51 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 24.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of 151.31 PLN per share, and 2 of the 4 models we run sit above the 140.15 PLN price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 66.63 PLN, and 2 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 138.39 PLN (bear) to 230.64 PLN (bull), the price of 140.15 PLN sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Alior Bank S.A. reported revenue of 6.2B PLN in FY2025 versus 3.8B PLN in FY2021, a compound +13.1%/yr. Reported net income was 2.4B PLN in FY2025, compounding +48.9%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 18.3B PLN (≈ $4.8B) · P/E ratio 8.0 · P/S ratio 3.05 · EPS (TTM) 17.57 PLN · Net margin 38.2% · Return on equity 18.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.8% · Operating margin 46.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 56 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at 32%, ALR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 138.39 PLNFair Value 184.51 PLNBull 230.64 PLN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (12.85 PLN per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.86/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.1% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+45.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+45.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.45% vs 18%, picking up
Profit margin 2009 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−95% → 47%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−20.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Poland: IMF forecast 3.1% a year to 2030, 4.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −23.2% a year for the price and −0.9% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Diversified · 47 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Below median
Fair Value upside+32% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)19% · Top 25%
Return on assets2% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)40% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)47% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.15× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alior Bank S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALR
Frequently asked questions
Is Alior Bank S.A. (ALR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 184.51 PLN versus a price of 140.15 PLN, about +32% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ALR?
Our model-based fair value for Alior Bank S.A. is 184.51 PLN (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 140.15 PLN.
What is the quality score of ALR?
Alior Bank S.A. has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alior Bank S.A. (ALR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 184.51 PLN (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario 138.39 PLN, optimistic scenario 230.64 PLN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alior Bank S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 184.51 PLN, about +32% upside versus a price of 140.15 PLN (undervalued). Cautious scenario 138.39 PLN, optimistic scenario 230.64 PLN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alior Bank S.A. (ALR)?
Alior Bank S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 5.7B PLN (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Alior Bank S.A. (ALR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Alior Bank S.A. would have to grow free cash flow by -20.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ALR use?
Our models discount Alior Bank S.A. at 10.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.83, country premium for Poland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Alior Bank S.A. that is -20.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Alior Bank S.A. (ALR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Alior Bank S.A. grew +10.4 % a year. The price currently implies -20.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Alior Bank S.A. (ALR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Alior Bank S.A. (-20.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Alior Bank S.A. (ALR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 23.35 %: that much free cash flow Alior Bank S.A. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Alior Bank S.A. (ALR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alior Bank S.A. it is 184.51 PLN per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 140.15 PLN. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alior Bank S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ALR trades below its calculated fair value: price 140.15 PLN, fair value 184.51 PLN, a gap of about +32% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALR?
No. The price is what the market pays today (140.15 PLN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (184.51 PLN). For Alior Bank S.A. the two are 44.36 PLN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alior Bank S.A. worth?
The market values Alior Bank S.A. at about 18.3B PLN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 140.15 PLN; our models calculate a fair value of 184.51 PLN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALR?
Our models span a range for Alior Bank S.A.: cautious scenario 138.39 PLN, base 184.51 PLN, optimistic 230.64 PLN per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 140.15 PLN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ALR?
Alior Bank S.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 184.51 PLN is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.4, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 0.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alior Bank S.A. (ALR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alior Bank S.A. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 18.9%, debt of 0.15 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALR from its 52-week high?
Alior Bank S.A. trades at 140.15 PLN, about 2% below its 52-week high of 143.70 PLN and 51% above the low of 92.51 PLN (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 184.51 PLN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alior Bank S.A.?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value JPMorgan Chase & Co, Bank of America Corporation, China Construction Bank Corporation, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alior Bank S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 140.15 PLN, calculated fair value 184.51 PLN (+32%), Quality Score 56/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALR calculated?
We run Alior Bank S.A. through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 184.51 PLN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Alior Bank S.A. currently trades 32 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alior Bank S.A. (ALR)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 140.15 PLN. Our model-based fair value is 184.51 PLN, about +32% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alior Bank S.A. right now?
Solid quality (56/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Alior Bank S.A. (ALR) come from?
Earnings per share at Alior Bank S.A. grew +17.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.9 %, EBIT margin +1.9 %, tax rate −0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +7.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Alior Bank S.A.
How large is the market capitalisation of Alior Bank S.A. (ALR)?
The market capitalisation of Alior Bank S.A. is 18.3B PLN (≈ $4.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alior Bank S.A. (ALR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alior Bank S.A. is 3.05 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alior Bank S.A. (ALR)?
Earnings per share at Alior Bank S.A. are 17.57 PLN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Alior Bank S.A. (ALR)?
The net margin of Alior Bank S.A. is 38.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alior Bank S.A. (ALR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alior Bank S.A. is 18.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alior Bank S.A. (ALR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alior Bank S.A. is 2.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alior Bank S.A. (ALR)?
The operating margin of Alior Bank S.A. is 46.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alior Bank S.A. (ALR)?
Revenue at Alior Bank S.A. is growing +3.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alior Bank S.A. (ALR)?
Earnings per share at Alior Bank S.A. are growing −15.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Alior Bank S.A. (ALR) hold?
Alior Bank S.A. holds more cash than debt, 766M PLN net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026