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Data-driven stock valuation

Alior Bank S.A. (ALR) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Alior Bank S.A. stock PLN 144, price PLN 138, upside +4.8%, quality 55 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services PL · ISIN PLALIOR00045

AB Alior Bank S.A. logo Broad data Nov 9, 2026

Alior Bank S.A.

ALR · WAR
Fairly valued, in an uptrend

The stock costs about what our calculation considers fair.

Highly profitable · 35.1% net margin (TTM)
Ranks above peers (11/14)
Wide moat 74/100
Broad data
Costs just 9.3 times its yearly profit.
Fair value 144.43 PLN · Fairly valued
Quality 55/100
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +10.4 %/yr in PLN)
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

143.70 PLN 18.67 PLN Fair Value 144.43 PLN Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 18.67 PLN – 143.70 PLN · fair‑value band 107.86 PLN – 208.09 PLN · the 137.80 PLN price screens below the 144.43 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.

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Company profile

Alior Bank S.A. provides various banking products and services for individuals, businesses, and enterprises in Poland. The company operates through three segments: Retail, Corporate, and Treasury Activities.

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It offers retail products, including cash loans, credit cards, current account overdraft facilities, and mortgage loans; term and savings deposits; brokerage products and investment funds; personal accounts; cash deposits, withdrawals, and transfers; and currency exchange transactions.

The company also provides corporate products, such as overdraft limits in current accounts, working capital loans, investment loans, and credit cards; current and subsidiary accounts; term deposits; cash deposits and withdrawals and transfers; FX exchange transactions; derivative instruments; and leasing and factoring.

In addition, it offers bills, trade finance, internet banking, and operating and financial leasing services, as well as issues commercial bonds. In addition, it offers retirement pension products and investments fund services, as well as operates currency trading platforms.

Further, it provides stock broking, financial advisory, intermediation, and other financial services. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Warsaw, Poland.

Stock analysis

Alior Bank S.A. (ALR) currently trades at 137.80 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 144.43 PLN, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 4.6%).

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 169.46 PLN per share, and 2 of the 6 models we run sit above the 137.80 PLN price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 63.80 PLN, and 4 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: 107.86 PLN (bear) to 208.09 PLN (bull), the price of 137.80 PLN sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Alior Bank S.A. reported revenue of 6.2B PLN in FY2025 versus 3.8B PLN in FY2021, a compound +13.1%/yr. Reported net income was 2.4B PLN in FY2025, compounding +48.9%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.

Key figures

Market cap 18.0B PLN (≈ $4.6B) Mid · P/E ratio 9.3 · P/S ratio 3.27 · EPS (TTM) 14.79 PLN · Net margin 35.1% · Return on equity 15.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.8% (5-year average) · Operating margin 51.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 74 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 49% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at 5%, ALR screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 107.86 PLN Fair Value 144.43 PLN Bull 208.09 PLN
Price 137.80 PLN · Upside +4.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (12.68 PLN per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income 107.86 PLN 137.79 PLN 205.65 PLN 75
Gordon GGM 76.20 PLN 144.43 PLN 208.09 PLN 67
DDM Multi-Stage 76.20 PLN 128.37 PLN 153.40 PLN 67
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 76.20 PLN 144.43 PLN 208.09 PLN 67
DDM Multi-Stage 76.20 PLN 128.37 PLN 153.40 PLN 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple 176.78 PLN 235.70 PLN 294.63 PLN 63
P/B Multiple 77.42 PLN 103.22 PLN 129.03 PLN 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 47.61 PLN 63.80 PLN 95.22 PLN 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income 107.86 PLN 137.79 PLN 205.65 PLN 75

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 55/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 42
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 22
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 98
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 15
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 51
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 71
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 61
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 85
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 82
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 86/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.1% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.6%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+45.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+45.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.45.4% vs 17.5%, picking up
Profit margin 2009 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−95% → 47%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

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Note from the team Oct 26, 2026
AI conclusion: Stabilized business mix and stronger asset quality form the main strength, while the sharp year-over-year drop in net income remains the main weak point amid typical volatility.
Main risk: Ongoing volatility typical of diversified Polish banks threatens consistent returns through fluctuating net interest margins and asset quality.
Alior Bank earned its first investment-grade rating from Fitch after the agency highlighted a stabilized business mix, stronger asset quality and solid capitalization. This development stands out against the sharp year-over-year drop in second-quarter net income. Does the upgrade reflect deeper operational resilience that will support consistent returns, or does it overlook ongoing volatility typical of diversified Polish banks?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Diversified · 46 stocks

Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 55 · Below median
Fair Value upside +4.8% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 15.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets 2.3% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months) 35.1% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months) 51.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 2.6% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.15× · Lowest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Diversified median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 9.3× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 1.39× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months) 3.27× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 4.2× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 5.0× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)40 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)13 · sector 34
PAST (return on equity)62 · sector 47
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 68

HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Agricultural Bank of China Limited 601288 ¥7.28 ¥9.14 +26% vs ALR
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited 601398 ¥8.44 ¥10.52 +25% vs ALR
Bank of China Limited 601988 ¥6.85 ¥7.73 +13% vs ALR
China Construction Bank Corporation 601939 ¥11.91 ¥13.33 +12% vs ALR
Bank of America Corporation BAC $49.42 $42.16 −15% vs ALR
Citigroup Inc C $119.05 $96.55 −19% vs ALR
Wells Fargo & Company WFC $83.94 $66.59 −21% vs ALR
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group MUFG $20.97 $14.68 −30% vs ALR
Royal Bank of Canada RY $201.16 $132.82 −34% vs ALR
JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM $334.49 $187.04 −44% vs ALR

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Alior Bank S.A.: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alior Bank S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALR

Frequently asked questions

Is Alior Bank S.A. (ALR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 144.43 PLN versus a price of 137.80 PLN, about +5% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of ALR?
Our model-based fair value for Alior Bank S.A. is 144.43 PLN (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 137.80 PLN.
What is the quality score of ALR?
Alior Bank S.A. has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alior Bank S.A. (ALR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 144.43 PLN (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario 107.86 PLN, optimistic scenario 208.09 PLN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alior Bank S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 144.43 PLN, about +5% upside versus a price of 137.80 PLN (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 107.86 PLN, optimistic scenario 208.09 PLN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alior Bank S.A. (ALR)?
Alior Bank S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 5.5B PLN (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Alior Bank S.A. (ALR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alior Bank S.A. it is 144.43 PLN per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of 137.80 PLN. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Alior Bank S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, ALR trades below its calculated fair value: price 137.80 PLN, fair value 144.43 PLN, a gap of about +5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALR?
No. The price is what the market pays today (137.80 PLN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (144.43 PLN). For Alior Bank S.A. the two are 6.63 PLN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alior Bank S.A. worth?
The market values Alior Bank S.A. at about 18.0B PLN (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is 137.80 PLN; our models calculate a fair value of 144.43 PLN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALR?
Our models span a range for Alior Bank S.A.: cautious scenario 107.86 PLN, base 144.43 PLN, optimistic 208.09 PLN per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price 137.80 PLN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ALR?
Alior Bank S.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.3 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 144.43 PLN is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 9.8. Other multiples: P/B 1.4, P/S 3.3, EV/EBITDA 5.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alior Bank S.A. (ALR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alior Bank S.A. (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 15.6%, debt of 0.15 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALR from its 52-week high?
Alior Bank S.A. trades at 137.80 PLN, about 4% below its 52-week high of 143.70 PLN and 49% above the low of 92.51 PLN (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 144.43 PLN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alior Bank S.A.?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value JPMorgan Chase & Co, China Construction Bank Corporation, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited, Agricultural Bank of China Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alior Bank S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price 137.80 PLN, calculated fair value 144.43 PLN (+5%), Quality Score 55/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALR calculated?
We run Alior Bank S.A. through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 144.43 PLN builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Alior Bank S.A. currently trades 5% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alior Bank S.A. (ALR)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was 137.80 PLN. Our model-based fair value is 144.43 PLN, about +5% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alior Bank S.A. right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (107.86 PLN to 208.09 PLN) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Alior Bank S.A. (ALR) come from?
Earnings per share at Alior Bank S.A. grew +17.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.9 %, EBIT margin +1.9 %, tax rate −0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +7.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Alior Bank S.A.

How large is the market capitalisation of Alior Bank S.A. (ALR)?
The market capitalisation of Alior Bank S.A. is 18.0B PLN (≈ $4.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alior Bank S.A. (ALR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alior Bank S.A. is 3.27 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alior Bank S.A. (ALR)?
Earnings per share at Alior Bank S.A. are 14.79 PLN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Alior Bank S.A. (ALR)?
The net margin of Alior Bank S.A. is 35.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alior Bank S.A. (ALR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alior Bank S.A. is 15.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alior Bank S.A. (ALR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alior Bank S.A. is 2.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alior Bank S.A. (ALR)?
The operating margin of Alior Bank S.A. is 51.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alior Bank S.A. (ALR)?
Revenue at Alior Bank S.A. is growing +2.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alior Bank S.A. (ALR)?
Earnings per share at Alior Bank S.A. are growing −15.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Alior Bank S.A. (ALR) generate?
The free cash flow of Alior Bank S.A. is 4.3B PLN (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Alior Bank S.A. (ALR) hold?
Alior Bank S.A. holds more cash than debt, 766M PLN net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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