Alupar Investimento S.A (ALUP11) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · BR · Market cap R$16.1B
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Share price −1.1% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 71% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (R$37.53). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (65/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range (R$37.53 to R$77.55) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$16.88 – R$36.54 · fair‑value band R$37.53 – R$77.55 · the R$32.06 price screens below the R$54.81 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
Alupar Investimento S.A (ALUP11) currently trades at R$32.06, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$54.81, implying the stock looks roughly 71.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Alupar Investimento S.A generated revenue of R$4.4B at a net margin of 25.2%. Revenue grew 2.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.7%. Net debt stands at R$11.9B. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from R$37.53 (bear case) to R$77.55 (bull case); at R$32.06, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -30% fair-value upside, at 71%, ALUP11 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (R$66.80) versus Asset-Based (R$18.63). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Alupar Investimento S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the transmission, generation, and commercialization of energy in Brazil, Colombia, Peru, and Chile. It operates through Transmission and Generation segments.
Full company description
Alupar Investimento S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the transmission, generation, and commercialization of energy in Brazil, Colombia, Peru, and Chile. It operates through Transmission and Generation segments. The company holds a stake in concessions for 44 electric power transmission systems totaling 9,999 kilometers of transmission lines; and operates overhead lines and substations. It is also involved in the generation of renewable energy through hydroelectric plants, wind farms, and photovoltaic plants, which have an installed capacity of 798.5 MW. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil. Alupar Investimento S.A. is a subsidiary of Guarupart Participações Ltda.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Alupar Investimento S.A reported revenue of R$4.4B in FY2025 versus R$5.2B in FY2021, a compound −4.3%/yr. Reported net income was R$1.2B in FY2025, compounding +2.2%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Utilities - Renewable · 220 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Renewable stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Yangtze Power Co 600900 | ¥27.99 | ¥25.13 | -10% |
| Ørsted A/S ORSTED | kr 149.70 | kr 31.40 | -79% |
| Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc 600025 | ¥9.81 | ¥5.57 | -43% |
| Adani Green Energy Limited ADANIGREEN | ₹1,537 | ₹170.50 | -89% |
| AXIA Energia SA AXIAP | $10.74 | $9.65 | -10% |
| VERBUND AG OEWA | €58.65 | €66.19 | +13% |
| BEP BEP | $32.33 | $73.35 | +127% |
| BEPUN BEPUN | C$44.56 | C$10.15 | -77% |
| Fortum Oyj FORTUM | €19.89 | €13.90 | -30% |
| China Longyuan Power Group 001289 | ¥16.21 | ¥8.23 | -49% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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