Alupar Investimento SA (ALUP11) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Alupar Investimento SA BRL 64.43, price BRL 32.25, upside +99.8%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$16.88 – R$36.54 · fair‑value band R$43.60 – R$83.77 · the R$32.25 price screens below the R$64.43 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Alupar Investimento S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the transmission, generation, and commercialization of energy in Brazil, Colombia, Peru, and Chile. It operates through Transmission and Generation segments.
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Alupar Investimento S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the transmission, generation, and commercialization of energy in Brazil, Colombia, Peru, and Chile. It operates through Transmission and Generation segments. The company holds a stake in concessions for 44 electric power transmission systems totaling 9,999 kilometers of transmission lines; and operates overhead lines and substations. It is also involved in the generation of renewable energy through hydroelectric plants, wind farms, and photovoltaic plants, which have an installed capacity of 798.5 MW. The company was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil. Alupar Investimento S.A. is a subsidiary of Guarupart Participações Ltda.
Stock analysis
Alupar Investimento SA (ALUP11) currently trades at R$32.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$64.43, implying the stock looks roughly 49.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of R$92.97 per share, and 23 of the 26 models we run sit above the R$32.25 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R$18.63, and 3 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R$43.60 (bear) to R$83.77 (bull), the price of R$32.25 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Alupar Investimento SA reported revenue of R$4.4B in FY2025 versus R$5.2B in FY2021, a compound −4.3%/yr. Reported net income was R$1.2B in FY2025, compounding +2.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap R$16.1B (≈ $3.1B) · P/E ratio 8.1 · P/S ratio 2.24 · EPS (TTM) R$4.17 · Dividend yield 2.4% · Net margin 27.6% · Return on equity 12.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at 100%, ALUP11 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$43.60Fair Value R$64.43Bull R$83.77
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$2.50 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.4% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in BRL (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in BRL: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+7.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.30% vs 24%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.54% → 64%
2025 sits 267% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Brazil: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 5.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −3.1% a year for the price and −0.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (8 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Renewable · 210 stocks
Beats the industry median on 14/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+100% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)13% · Top 25%
Return on assets5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)25% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)58% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth3% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.4% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.22× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alupar Investimento SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALUP11
Frequently asked questions
Is Alupar Investimento SA (ALUP11) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$64.43 versus a price of R$32.25, about +100% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ALUP11?
Our model-based fair value for Alupar Investimento SA is R$64.43 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$32.25.
What is the quality score of ALUP11?
Alupar Investimento SA has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alupar Investimento SA (ALUP11)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$64.43 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$43.60, optimistic scenario R$83.77. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alupar Investimento SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$64.43, about +100% upside versus a price of R$32.25 (undervalued). Cautious scenario R$43.60, optimistic scenario R$83.77. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alupar Investimento SA (ALUP11)?
Alupar Investimento SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$4.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Alupar Investimento SA pay a dividend?
Alupar Investimento SA currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.35% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Alupar Investimento SA (ALUP11)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Alupar Investimento SA would have to grow free cash flow by +0.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -6.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ALUP11 use?
Our models discount Alupar Investimento SA at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.18, country premium for Brazil. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Alupar Investimento SA that is +0.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Alupar Investimento SA (ALUP11) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Alupar Investimento SA grew -6.5 % a year. The price currently implies +0.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Alupar Investimento SA (ALUP11) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +0.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Alupar Investimento SA (+0.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Alupar Investimento SA (ALUP11)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 18.88 %: that much free cash flow Alupar Investimento SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Alupar Investimento SA (ALUP11)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alupar Investimento SA it is R$64.43 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of R$32.25. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alupar Investimento SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ALUP11 trades below its calculated fair value: price R$32.25, fair value R$64.43, a gap of about +100% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALUP11?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$32.25); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$64.43). For Alupar Investimento SA the two are R$32.18 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alupar Investimento SA worth?
The market values Alupar Investimento SA at about R$16.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is R$32.25; our models calculate a fair value of R$64.43 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALUP11?
Our models span a range for Alupar Investimento SA: cautious scenario R$43.60, base R$64.43, optimistic R$83.77 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price R$32.25). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ALUP11?
Alupar Investimento SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$64.43 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.3, P/B 0.3, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 4.7.
What is the PEG ratio of ALUP11?
The PEG ratio of Alupar Investimento SA is 0.26 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alupar Investimento SA (ALUP11)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alupar Investimento SA (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 12.7%, debt of 1.22 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALUP11 from its 52-week high?
Alupar Investimento SA trades at R$32.25, about 12% below its 52-week high of R$36.54 and 8% above the low of R$29.94 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$64.43 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alupar Investimento SA?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value China Yangtze Power Co, Ørsted A/S, Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc, Adani Green Energy Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alupar Investimento SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price R$32.25, calculated fair value R$64.43 (+100%), Quality Score 65/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALUP11 calculated?
We run Alupar Investimento SA through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$64.43, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Alupar Investimento SA currently trades 100 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alupar Investimento SA (ALUP11)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was R$32.25. Our model-based fair value is R$64.43, about +100% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alupar Investimento SA right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (R$43.60). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (65/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (R$43.60 to R$83.77) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Alupar Investimento SA (ALUP11) come from?
Earnings per share at Alupar Investimento SA grew +14.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.7 %, EBIT margin −1.1 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +4.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Alupar Investimento SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Alupar Investimento SA (ALUP11)?
The market capitalisation of Alupar Investimento SA is R$16.1B (≈ $3.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alupar Investimento SA (ALUP11)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alupar Investimento SA is 2.24 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alupar Investimento SA (ALUP11)?
Earnings per share at Alupar Investimento SA are R$4.17 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Alupar Investimento SA (ALUP11)?
The dividend yield of Alupar Investimento SA is 2.4% (payout 18.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Alupar Investimento SA (ALUP11)?
The net margin of Alupar Investimento SA is 27.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alupar Investimento SA (ALUP11)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alupar Investimento SA is 12.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alupar Investimento SA (ALUP11)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alupar Investimento SA is 10.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alupar Investimento SA (ALUP11)?
The operating margin of Alupar Investimento SA is 58.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alupar Investimento SA (ALUP11)?
Revenue at Alupar Investimento SA is growing +2.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alupar Investimento SA (ALUP11)?
Earnings per share at Alupar Investimento SA are growing −33.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Alupar Investimento SA (ALUP11) carry?
The net debt of Alupar Investimento SA is R$11.9B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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