Alzinova AB (ALZ) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · SE · Market cap 136M SEK (≈ $14.2M) · ISIN SE0007413455
Risks
Fair value as of: Jul 20, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 39 days ago
Share price −14.1% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and trading another 147% above our fair value.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 0.5100). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (20/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range (kr 0.2550 to kr 0.5100) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 0.3995 – kr 9.75 · fair‑value band kr 0.2550 – kr 0.5100 · the kr 0.8400 price screens above the kr 0.3400 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.
Analysis
Alzinova AB (ALZ) currently trades at kr 0.8400, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 0.3400, implying the stock looks roughly 59.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 20/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at 25.7M SEK. Revenue declined 18.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -19.9%. Fundamentals as of Jul 20, 2026
Our scenario range runs from kr 0.2550 (bear case) to kr 0.5100 (bull case); at kr 0.8400, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 63% below its 52-week high and 120% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -49% fair-value upside, at -60%, ALZ screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 22 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Alzinova AB (publ), a clinical-stage biopharma company, develops immunotherapies treatment for Alzheimer's disease in Sweden. The company's lead product candidate is the ALZ-101, a therapeutic vaccine for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease, which has completed phase 1b clinical trial.
Full company description
Alzinova AB (publ), a clinical-stage biopharma company, develops immunotherapies treatment for Alzheimer's disease in Sweden. The company's lead product candidate is the ALZ-101, a therapeutic vaccine for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease, which has completed phase 1b clinical trial. It also develops ALZ-201, a monoclonal antibody that target and neutralize the neurotoxic forms of the peptide Aß42, called oligomers, which are considered to be the underlying cause of Alzheimer's disease; and a humanized version of ALZ-201 in patients with Alzheimer's disease that is in phase 1 clinical study. It has a research collaboration with Amsterdam University Medical Center to develop a blood based test that measures naturally occurring antibodies against toxic amyloid ß oligomers. Alzinova AB (publ) was incorporated in 2011 and is based in Mölndal, Sweden.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Alzinova AB reported revenue of kr 0 in FY2025 versus kr 17.3M in FY2021. Reported net income was −kr 26.3M in FY2025.
ALZ screens 60% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →
Peer Group
Biotechnology · 636 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 20, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX | $547.29 | $278.78 | -49% |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN | $814.79 | $594.40 | -27% |
| argenx SE ARGX | €877.60 | €292.84 | -67% |
| Samsung Biologics Co 207940 | 1,594,000 KRW | 1,055,793 KRW | -34% |
| Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY | $228.61 | $51.70 | -77% |
| Royalty Pharma plc RPRX | $60.58 | $24.22 | -60% |
| Celltrion, Inc 068270 | 202,000 KRW | 74,519 KRW | -63% |
| BeOne Medicines AG ONC | $362.51 | $111.35 | -69% |
| BioNTech SE 22UA | €80.60 | €52.92 | -34% |
| Incyte Corporation INCY | $128.12 | $115.79 | -10% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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