Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Ardagh Metal Packaging SA is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.90 – $7.68 · fair‑value band $0.3580 – $5.88 · the $4.84 price screens above the $1.79 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a metal beverage can company in Europe, North America, and Brazil. It offers a range of beverage cans for use in sparkling water, soft drinks, beer, wine, flavored malt beverages, energy drinks, and teas, as well as flavored alcoholic beverages to beverage producers.
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Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a metal beverage can company in Europe, North America, and Brazil. It offers a range of beverage cans for use in sparkling water, soft drinks, beer, wine, flavored malt beverages, energy drinks, and teas, as well as flavored alcoholic beverages to beverage producers. The company was founded in 1932 and is based in Luxembourg, Luxembourg. Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Ardagh Group S.A.
Stock analysis
Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP) currently trades at $4.84, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.79, implying the stock looks roughly 170.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $6.24 per share, and 4 of the 18 models we run sit above the $4.84 price.
Bear case: the Growth Earnings group reads lowest at $0.2800, and 14 of the 18 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.3580 (bear) to $5.88 (bull), the price of $4.84 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Ardagh Metal Packaging SA reported revenue of $5.5B in FY2025 versus $4.1B in FY2021, a compound +7.9%/yr. Reported net income was $11.0M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $2.9B · P/S ratio 0.50 · EPS (TTM) $−0.0100 · Dividend yield 8.3% · Net margin 0.2% · Return on equity −63.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.8% · Operating margin 3.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −63%, AMBP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($0.1200 to $7.67). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear $0.3580Fair Value $1.79Bull $5.88
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.75/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.8%
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.4%
’18
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’20
’21
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−32.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−41.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)8.3%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 5%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Compare Ardagh Metal Packaging SA with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaging & Containers · 275 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Below median
Fair Value upside−94% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth19% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)8.3% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
P/S (TTM)0.50× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF10.7× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA8.8× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 13
FUTURE (revenue growth)93· sector 6
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 21
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 43
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ardagh Metal Packaging SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AMBP
Frequently asked questions
Is Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.79 versus a price of $4.84, about −63% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AMBP?
Our model-based fair value for Ardagh Metal Packaging SA is $1.79 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.84.
What is the quality score of AMBP?
Ardagh Metal Packaging SA has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.79 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 19 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.3580, optimistic scenario $5.88. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ardagh Metal Packaging SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.79, about −63% upside versus a price of $4.84 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.3580, optimistic scenario $5.88. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP)?
Ardagh Metal Packaging SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Ardagh Metal Packaging SA pay a dividend?
Ardagh Metal Packaging SA currently shows a dividend yield of about 8.26% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ardagh Metal Packaging SA would have to grow free cash flow by +10.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.8 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AMBP use?
Our models discount Ardagh Metal Packaging SA at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.53, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ardagh Metal Packaging SA that is +10.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA grew +9.8 % a year. The price currently implies +10.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (+10.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.16 %: that much free cash flow Ardagh Metal Packaging SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ardagh Metal Packaging SA it is $1.79 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of $4.84. It is the blended result of 19 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ardagh Metal Packaging SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, AMBP trades above its calculated fair value: price $4.84, fair value $1.79, a gap of about −63% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AMBP?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.84); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.79). For Ardagh Metal Packaging SA the two are $3.05 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ardagh Metal Packaging SA worth?
The market values Ardagh Metal Packaging SA at about $2.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is $4.84; our models calculate a fair value of $1.79 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AMBP?
Our models span a range for Ardagh Metal Packaging SA: cautious scenario $0.3580, base $1.79, optimistic $5.88 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price $4.84). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity −63.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AMBP from its 52-week high?
Ardagh Metal Packaging SA trades at $4.84, about 2% below its 52-week high of $4.91 and 51% above the low of $3.21 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.79 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ardagh Metal Packaging SA?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Smurfit Westrock Plc,, Packaging Corporation, International Paper Company, Amcor plc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ardagh Metal Packaging SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price $4.84, calculated fair value $1.79 (−63%), Quality Score 52/100, from 19 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AMBP calculated?
We run Ardagh Metal Packaging SA through 19 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.79, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Ardagh Metal Packaging SA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Ardagh Metal Packaging SA right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($0.3580 to $5.88). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Ardagh Metal Packaging SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP)?
The market capitalisation of Ardagh Metal Packaging SA is $2.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ardagh Metal Packaging SA is 0.50 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP)?
Earnings per share at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA are $−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP)?
The dividend yield of Ardagh Metal Packaging SA is 8.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP)?
The net margin of Ardagh Metal Packaging SA is 0.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ardagh Metal Packaging SA is −63.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ardagh Metal Packaging SA is 2.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP)?
The operating margin of Ardagh Metal Packaging SA is 3.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP)?
Revenue at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA is growing +18.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP)?
Earnings per share at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA are growing +75.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP) carry?
The net debt of Ardagh Metal Packaging SA is $3.9B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 14.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 13, 2026