Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 28, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Ardagh Metal Packaging SA stock $6.77, price $4.50, upside +50.4%, quality 52 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.86 – $7.53 · fair‑value band $2.27 – $12.70 · the $4.50 price screens below the $6.77 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 27, 2026.
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Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a metal beverage can company in Europe, North America, and Brazil.
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It offers a range of beverage cans for use in sparkling water, soft drinks, beer, wine, flavored malt beverages, energy drinks, and teas, as well as flavored alcoholic beverages to beverage producers. The company was founded in 1932 and is based in Luxembourg, Luxembourg.
Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Ardagh Group S.A.
Stock analysis
Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP) currently trades at $4.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.77, implying the stock looks roughly 33.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $7.01 per share, and 8 of the 17 models we run sit above the $4.50 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $2.12, and 9 of the 17 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $2.27 (bear) to $12.70 (bull), the price of $4.50 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Ardagh Metal Packaging SA reported revenue of $5.5B in FY2025 versus $4.1B in FY2021, a compound +7.9%/yr. Reported net income was $11.0M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $2.7B Mid · P/E ratio 56.3 · P/S ratio 0.43 · EPS (TTM) $0.0800 · Dividend yield 8.9% · Net margin 0.9% · Return on equity −63.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 25 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 45% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at 50%, AMBP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$2.27Fair Value $6.77Bull$12.70
Price $4.50 · Upside +50.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.75/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.4%
’18
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−32.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−41.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)8.9%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 5%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.8% a year for the price and +2.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: The company benefits from positive cash flow yet shows weak profitability, high leverage and negative equity that limit any durable advantage in a commoditized sector.
Main risk: High leverage with negative equity remains the biggest risk to the company's business, threatening its capacity to fund and maintain the network of beverage can plants.
Ardagh Metal Packaging operates amid a halted sales process after a Luxembourg court blocked its parent's planned divestiture of the unit. Our models currently see the company as undervalued even as this ownership uncertainty lingers over its network of beverage can plants. Will the injunction merely postpone any transaction or expose deeper structural issues in how value gets allocated across the group?
Compare Ardagh Metal Packaging SA with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaging & Containers · 257 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Below median
Fair Value upside+50.4% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets0.2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)0.9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)6.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)18.6% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)8.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)56.3× · Priciest 25%
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)0.43× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow10.2× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA8.3× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100· sector 23
FUTURE (revenue growth)93· sector 43
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 53
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ardagh Metal Packaging SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AMBP
Frequently asked questions
Is Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $6.77 versus a price of $4.50, about +50% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AMBP?
Our model-based fair value for Ardagh Metal Packaging SA is $6.77 (as of Oct 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.50.
What is the quality score of AMBP?
Ardagh Metal Packaging SA has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $6.77 (as of Oct 27, 2026) from 20 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.27, optimistic scenario $12.70. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ardagh Metal Packaging SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $6.77, about +50% upside versus a price of $4.50 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $2.27, optimistic scenario $12.70. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP)?
Ardagh Metal Packaging SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $6.3B (latest available figure, as of Oct 27, 2026).
Does Ardagh Metal Packaging SA pay a dividend?
Ardagh Metal Packaging SA currently shows a dividend yield of 8.89% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ardagh Metal Packaging SA would have to grow free cash flow by +10.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.8 % per year. As of Oct 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AMBP use?
Our models discount Ardagh Metal Packaging SA at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.53, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ardagh Metal Packaging SA that is +10.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA grew +9.8 % a year. The price currently implies +10.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (+10.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.85 %: that much free cash flow Ardagh Metal Packaging SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ardagh Metal Packaging SA it is $6.77 per share (as of Oct 27, 2026), against a price of $4.50. It is the blended result of 20 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ardagh Metal Packaging SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 27, 2026, AMBP trades below its calculated fair value: price $4.50, fair value $6.77, a gap of about +50% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AMBP?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($6.77). For Ardagh Metal Packaging SA the two are $2.27 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ardagh Metal Packaging SA worth?
The market values Ardagh Metal Packaging SA at about $2.7B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 27, 2026). Per share that is $4.50; our models calculate a fair value of $6.77 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AMBP?
Our models span a range for Ardagh Metal Packaging SA: cautious scenario $2.27, base $6.77, optimistic $12.70 per share (as of Oct 27, 2026, price $4.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AMBP?
Ardagh Metal Packaging SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 56.3 (as of Oct 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $6.77 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 8.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (as of Oct 27, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AMBP from its 52-week high?
Ardagh Metal Packaging SA trades at $4.50, about 14% below its 52-week high of $5.25 and 45% above the low of $3.10 (as of Oct 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $6.77 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ardagh Metal Packaging SA?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Packaging Corporation, Smurfit Westrock Plc,, Amcor plc, International Paper Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ardagh Metal Packaging SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 27, 2026: price $4.50, calculated fair value $6.77 (+50%), Quality Score 52/100, from 20 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AMBP calculated?
We run Ardagh Metal Packaging SA through 20 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $6.77, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Ardagh Metal Packaging SA currently trades 34 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP)?
The closing price on Oct 28, 2026 was $4.50. Our model-based fair value is $6.77, about +50% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ardagh Metal Packaging SA right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($2.27 to $12.70). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (52/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Ardagh Metal Packaging SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP)?
The market capitalisation of Ardagh Metal Packaging SA is $2.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ardagh Metal Packaging SA is 0.43 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP)?
Earnings per share at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA are $0.0800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 56.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP)?
The dividend yield of Ardagh Metal Packaging SA is 8.9%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP)?
The net margin of Ardagh Metal Packaging SA is 0.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ardagh Metal Packaging SA is −63.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ardagh Metal Packaging SA is 2.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP)?
The operating margin of Ardagh Metal Packaging SA is 6.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP)?
Revenue at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA is growing +18.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP)?
Earnings per share at Ardagh Metal Packaging SA are growing +110% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Ardagh Metal Packaging SA (AMBP) carry?
The net debt of Ardagh Metal Packaging SA is $3.9B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 14.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Oct 27, 2026