Amgen Inc (AMGN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Amgen Inc stock $507, price $460, upside +10.2%, quality 65 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $171.65 – $478.48 · fair‑value band $347.16 – $659.61 · the $460.28 price screens below the $507.39 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Amgen Inc. discovers, develops, manufactures, and delivers human therapeutics worldwide.
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The company's principal products include Enbrel for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis, plaque psoriasis, and psoriatic arthritis; Otezla for the treatment of adult patients with plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, and oral ulcers associated with Behçet's disease; Prolia to treat postmenopausal women with osteoporosis; XGEVA for skeletal-related events prevention; Repatha, which reduces the risks of myocardial infarction, stroke, and coronary revascularization; Nplate for the treatment of patients with immune thrombocytopenia; KYPROLIS to treat patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma; Aranesp to treat a lower-than-normal number of red blood cells and anemia; EVENITY for the treatment of osteoporosis in postmenopausal for women; Vectibix to treat patients with wild-type RAS metastatic colorectal cancer; BLINCYTO for the treatment of patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia; TEPEZZA to treat thyroid eye disease; and KRYSTEXXA for the treatment of chronic refractory gout.
It also markets other products, including PROLIA, REPATHA, OTEZLA, ENBREL, EVENITY, XGEVA, TEPEZZA, BLINCYTO, NPLATE, TEZSPIRE, KYPROLIS, ARANESP, KRYSTEXXA AND VECTIBIX, MVASI, PAVBLU, UPLIZNA, IMDELLTRA/IMDYLLTRA, AMJEVITA/AMGEVITA, TAVNEOS, NEULASTA, LUMAKRAS/LUMYKRAS, RAVICTI, PARSABIV, AIMOVIG, WEZLANA/WEZENLA, AND PROCYSBI. The company serves healthcare providers, including physicians or their clinics, dialysis centers, hospitals, and pharmacies.
It distributes its products through pharmaceutical wholesale distributors.
The company has collaboration agreements with AstraZeneca plc for the development and commercialization of TEZSPIRE; BEONE MEDICINES LTD. to develop and commercialize Aimovig; UCB for the development and commercialization of EVENITY; Kyowa Kirin Co., Ltd. for rocatinlimab development and commercialization; and BeiGene, Ltd. for oncology products expansion and development.
The company was incorporated in 1980 and is he
Stock analysis
Amgen Inc (AMGN) currently trades at $460.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $507.39, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 9.3%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $338.22 per share, and 3 of the 24 models we run sit above the $460.28 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $84.82, and 21 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $347.16 (bear) to $659.61 (bull), the price of $460.28 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Amgen Inc reported revenue of $36.7B in FY2025 versus $26.0B in FY2021, a compound +9.1%/yr. Reported net income was $7.7B in FY2025, compounding +7.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $250B Mega · P/E ratio 28.6 · P/S ratio 6.57 · EPS (TTM) $16.10 · Dividend yield 2.1% · Net margin 23.0% · Return on equity 91.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 88 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 50% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at 10%, AMGN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$347.16Fair Value $507.39Bull$659.61
Price $460.28 · Upside +10.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($5.35 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 3 officers or directors sold shares worth $4.1M and none bought.
SaleRachna KhoslaSVP, Business Development2× since Nov 12, 2025: 4,142 shares, avg. $397.34$1.6MAug 13, 2026
SaleNancy A. GrygielSVP & CCO3× since Nov 20, 2025: 7,346 shares, avg. $361.22$2.7MAug 6, 2026
SaleDerek MillerSVP, Human Resources3,890 shares at $402.54$1.6MAug 6, 2026
SaleEsteban SantosEVP, Operations54,792 shares at $379.12$20.8MFeb 26, 2026
SaleMatthew C. BuschVP, Finance & CAO1,000 shares at $375.79$375,790Feb 19, 2026
SaleMurdo GordonEVP, Global Commercial Ops6,879 shares at $336.83$2.3MNov 12, 2025
Plus 29 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.4% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+1.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−0.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.2.9% vs 4.6%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.36% → 29%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+14.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +11.7% a year for the price and +1.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
AI conclusion: Patent-protected drugs deliver high gross margins and ROE through strong pricing power, yet elevated leverage with debt far above equity caps overall business resilience.
Main risk: Biosimilar launches by Sandoz, Celltrion and others after denosumab and etanercept patent expiries could cut prices and share for Prolia, Xgeva and Enbrel.
Bull case: Amgen could offset biosimilar and IRA pressure by accelerating its AI-enhanced pipeline in oncology and obesity to launch differentiated new products with strong patent protection.
Bear case: If biosimilar erosion and Medicare price cuts intensify without sufficient new launches, Amgen could face sustained revenue declines and margin compression on its largest legacy franchises.
Amgen's tarlatamab delivered a striking 58 percent reduction in death risk when added to durvalumab as first-line maintenance in extensive-stage small cell lung cancer, with median survival reaching 21 months versus under 13. The data bring clear progress in a tough indication yet also highlight higher rates of cytokine release syndrome and the need for initial monitoring. Our models currently see the stock as undervalued. Will the survival benefit drive broad adoption fast enough to offset those practical hurdles?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - General · 74 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Above median
Fair Value upside+10.2% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)91.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets8.5% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)23.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)35.6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)9.5% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity5.78× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - General median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)28.6× · Pricier than median
P/B28.92× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Amgen Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AMGN
Frequently asked questions
Is Amgen Inc (AMGN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $507.39 versus a price of $460.28, about +10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of AMGN?
Our model-based fair value for Amgen Inc is $507.39 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $460.28.
What is the quality score of AMGN?
Amgen Inc has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Amgen Inc (AMGN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $507.39 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $347.16, optimistic scenario $659.61. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Amgen Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $507.39, about +10% upside versus a price of $460.28 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $347.16, optimistic scenario $659.61. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Amgen Inc (AMGN)?
Amgen Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $38.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does Amgen Inc pay a dividend?
Amgen Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 2.13% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Amgen Inc (AMGN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Amgen Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +14.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 7.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.6 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AMGN use?
Our models discount Amgen Inc at 7.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 0.42, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Amgen Inc that is +14.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (7.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Amgen Inc (AMGN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Amgen Inc grew +7.6 % a year. The price currently implies +14.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Amgen Inc (AMGN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Amgen Inc (+14.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Amgen Inc (AMGN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.23 %: that much free cash flow Amgen Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (7.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Amgen Inc (AMGN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Amgen Inc it is $507.39 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $460.28. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Amgen Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, AMGN trades below its calculated fair value: price $460.28, fair value $507.39, a gap of about +10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AMGN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($460.28); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($507.39). For Amgen Inc the two are $47.11 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Amgen Inc worth?
The market values Amgen Inc at about $250B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $460.28; our models calculate a fair value of $507.39 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AMGN?
Our models span a range for Amgen Inc: cautious scenario $347.16, base $507.39, optimistic $659.61 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $460.28). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AMGN?
Amgen Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 28.6 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $507.39 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 37.8 (reported for FY2025: 32.4). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2017, FY2024, FY2025 ex one-offs: 21.8. Other multiples: PEG 2.8, P/B 28.9, P/S 6.6, EV/EBITDA 16.9.
What is the PEG ratio of AMGN?
The PEG ratio of Amgen Inc is 2.78 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Amgen Inc (AMGN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Amgen Inc (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 91.5%, debt of 5.78 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AMGN from its 52-week high?
Amgen Inc trades at $460.28, about 4% below its 52-week high of $478.48 and 50% above the low of $307.07 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $507.39 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Amgen Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Eli Lilly and Company, Johnson & Johnson,, AbbVie Inc, Roche Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Amgen Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $460.28, calculated fair value $507.39 (+10%), Quality Score 65/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AMGN calculated?
We run Amgen Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $507.39, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Amgen Inc currently trades 9% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Amgen Inc (AMGN)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $460.28. Our model-based fair value is $507.39, about +10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Amgen Inc right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($347.16 to $659.61) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Amgen Inc (AMGN) come from?
Earnings per share at Amgen Inc grew +3.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.9 %, EBIT margin −4.0 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Amgen Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Amgen Inc (AMGN)?
The market capitalisation of Amgen Inc is $250B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Amgen Inc (AMGN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Amgen Inc is 6.57 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Amgen Inc (AMGN)?
Earnings per share at Amgen Inc are $16.10 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 28.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Amgen Inc (AMGN)?
The dividend yield of Amgen Inc is 2.1% (payout 71.1%, on adjusted earnings, reported 60.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Amgen Inc (AMGN)?
The net margin of Amgen Inc is 23.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Amgen Inc (AMGN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Amgen Inc is 91.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Amgen Inc (AMGN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Amgen Inc is 11.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Amgen Inc (AMGN)?
The operating margin of Amgen Inc is 35.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Amgen Inc (AMGN)?
Revenue at Amgen Inc is growing +9.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Amgen Inc (AMGN)?
Earnings per share at Amgen Inc are growing +64.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Amgen Inc (AMGN) carry?
The net debt of Amgen Inc is $45.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 4, 2026