Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk (AMRT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk IDR 1,414, price IDR 1,310, upside +7.9%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 809.59 IDR – 3,417 IDR · fair‑value band 959.54 IDR – 1,764 IDR · the 1,310 IDR price screens below the 1,414 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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PT Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk engages in the retail distribution of consumer products in Indonesia. The company offers food and non-food products. It also operates minimarket networks and franchise services under the Alfamart brand.
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PT Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk engages in the retail distribution of consumer products in Indonesia. The company offers food and non-food products. It also operates minimarket networks and franchise services under the Alfamart brand. In addition, the company engages in the retail distribution of cosmetics; retail and wholesale distribution of consumer products through internet; and pharmacy business. The company was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Tangerang, Indonesia. PT Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk operates as a subsidiary of PT. Sigmantara Alfindo.
Stock analysis
Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk (AMRT) currently trades at 1,310 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1,414 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 7.3% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 1,880 IDR per share, and 17 of the 24 models we run sit above the 1,310 IDR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 293.84 IDR, and 7 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 959.54 IDR (bear) to 1,764 IDR (bull), the price of 1,310 IDR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk reported revenue of 127T IDR in FY2025 versus 84.9T IDR in FY2021, a compound +10.5%/yr. Reported net income was 3.4T IDR in FY2025, compounding +15.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 54.4T IDR (≈ $5.4B) · P/E ratio 15.5 · P/S ratio 0.42 · EPS (TTM) 84.77 IDR · Net margin 2.7% · Return on equity 19.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.7% · Operating margin 4.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at 8%, AMRT screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 959.54 IDRFair Value 1,414 IDRBull 1,764 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (62.01 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.83/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.1% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+25.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+25.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.25% vs 19%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Indonesia: IMF forecast 2.6% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.0% a year for the price and +5.1% for the forecasts.
Compare Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Grocery Stores · 79 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Below median
Fair Value upside+8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)19% · Top 25%
Return on assets6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)3% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth8% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.04× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Grocery Stores median · lower = cheaper
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Is Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk (AMRT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 1,414 IDR versus a price of 1,310 IDR, about +8% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of AMRT?
Our model-based fair value for Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk is 1,414 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 1,310 IDR.
What is the quality score of AMRT?
Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk (AMRT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 1,414 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 959.54 IDR, optimistic scenario 1,764 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 1,414 IDR, about +8% upside versus a price of 1,310 IDR (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 959.54 IDR, optimistic scenario 1,764 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk (AMRT)?
Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 129T IDR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk (AMRT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk would have to grow free cash flow by +12.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AMRT use?
Our models discount Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk that is +12.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk (AMRT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk grew +10.8 % a year. The price currently implies +12.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk (AMRT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk (+12.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk (AMRT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.16 %: that much free cash flow Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk (AMRT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk it is 1,414 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 1,310 IDR. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, AMRT trades below its calculated fair value: price 1,310 IDR, fair value 1,414 IDR, a gap of about +8% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AMRT?
No. The price is what the market pays today (1,310 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (1,414 IDR). For Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk the two are 103.69 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk worth?
The market values Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk at about 54.4T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 1,310 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 1,414 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AMRT?
Our models span a range for Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk: cautious scenario 959.54 IDR, base 1,414 IDR, optimistic 1,764 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 1,310 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AMRT?
Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 1,414 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 6.3, P/B 3.0, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 7.5.
What is the PEG ratio of AMRT?
The PEG ratio of Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk is 6.28 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk (AMRT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 19.1%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AMRT from its 52-week high?
Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk trades at 1,310 IDR, about 40% below its 52-week high of 2,182 IDR and 17% above the low of 1,115 IDR (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 1,414 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Loblaw Companies Limited, Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V, The Kroger Co, Woolworths Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 1,310 IDR, calculated fair value 1,414 IDR (+8%), Quality Score 57/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AMRT calculated?
We run Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 1,414 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk currently trades 8 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk (AMRT)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 1,310 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 1,414 IDR, about +8% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (959.54 IDR to 1,764 IDR) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk (AMRT) come from?
Earnings per share at Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk grew +22.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.7 %, EBIT margin +3.5 %, tax rate +0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +6.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk (AMRT)?
The market capitalisation of Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk is 54.4T IDR (≈ $5.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk (AMRT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk is 0.42 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk (AMRT)?
Earnings per share at Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk are 84.77 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk (AMRT)?
The net margin of Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk is 2.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk (AMRT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk is 19.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk (AMRT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk is 10.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk (AMRT)?
The operating margin of Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk is 4.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk (AMRT)?
Revenue at Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk is growing +7.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk (AMRT)?
Earnings per share at Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk are growing +11.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk (AMRT) hold?
Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk holds more cash than debt, 2.0T IDR net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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