ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ANZ) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of ANZ Group Holdings Ltd stock A$27.91, price A$40.10, that is 30.4% below the price, quality 65 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$16.69 – A$40.81 · fair‑value band A$20.61 – A$34.89 · the A$40.10 price screens above the A$27.91 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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ANZ Group Holdings Limited engages in the provision of banking and financial products and services to retail and business customers in Australia and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Personal, Business & Agri, and Institutional.
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It offers banking and wealth management services to consumer and private banking customers; banking services to small and medium enterprises, and the agricultural business.
The company also provides loan products, loan syndication, specialized loan structuring and execution, project and export finance, debt structuring and acquisition finance, and finance solutions; working capital and liquidity solutions, including documentary trade, supply chain financing, commodity financing, as well as cash management solutions, deposits, payments, and clearing.
In addition, it offers risk management services in foreign exchange, interest rates, credit, commodities, and debt capital markets. The company provides its services through internet and app-based digital solutions, a network of branches, mortgage specialists, private bankers, and contact centers.
ANZ Group Holdings Limited was founded in 1835 and is based in Melbourne, Australia.
Stock analysis
ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ANZ) currently trades at A$40.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$27.91, 30% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of A$27.98 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the A$40.10 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$14.54, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$20.61 (bear) to A$34.89 (bull), the price of A$40.10 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
ANZ Group Holdings Ltd reported revenue of A$67.4B in FY2025 versus A$23.2B in FY2021, a compound +30.6%/yr. Reported net income was A$5.9B in FY2025, compounding −1.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap A$127B (≈ $89.1B) Large · P/E ratio 20.5 · P/S ratio 5.90 · EPS (TTM) A$1.97 · Dividend yield 4.1% · Net margin 27.4% · Return on equity 8.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 70 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at −30%, ANZ screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$20.61Fair Value A$27.91BullA$34.89
Price A$40.10 · Downside -30.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.3100 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.86/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+34.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.7% a year
Revenue growth 36 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+3.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−0.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−0.7% vs −2.9%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.0% → 13%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−4.5%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−35.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −7.3% a year for the price and −37.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
AI conclusion: Scale in Australian banking delivers a moderate moat with pricing power, yet limited innovation and standard governance expose the bank to sector regulatory risks.
Main risk: Ongoing ASIC penalties and unresolved class action settlements on fees and commissions could increase compliance expenses and reduce margins in retail and institutional banking.
Bull case: By strengthening governance and leveraging its scale plus digital platforms like ANZ Plus, ANZ could absorb regulatory costs while retaining market position against fintech challengers.
Bear case: Persistent legal liabilities and successful incursions by agile digital rivals could erode customer bases in key segments and constrain operational flexibility over multiple years.
ANZ is shifting selected home loans, foreign exchange and payments revenues into the divisions that manage those customer relationships ahead of its full-year 2026 reporting. The moves align reporting with how the bank allocates resources and tracks performance under its 2030 strategy, yet leave statutory profit, cash profit and capital unchanged. Will the clearer divisional accountability reveal stronger underlying momentum or simply restate the same pressures in new categories?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Diversified · 46 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−30.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)8.2% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets0.5% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)27.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)48.8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−2.1% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)4.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.38× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)20.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.79× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)5.90× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow4.9× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA17.7× · Pricier than median
PEG2.13× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 36
PAST (return on equity)33· sector 47
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 40
DIVIDEND (yield)83· sector 68
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ANZ Group Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ANZ
Frequently asked questions
Is ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ANZ) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$27.91 versus a price of A$40.10, about 30% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ANZ?
Our model-based fair value for ANZ Group Holdings Ltd is A$27.91 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$40.10.
What is the quality score of ANZ?
ANZ Group Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ANZ)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$27.91 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$20.61, optimistic scenario A$34.89. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ANZ Group Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$27.91, about 30% lower versus a price of A$40.10 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$20.61, optimistic scenario A$34.89. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does ANZ Group Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
ANZ Group Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 4.14% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ANZ)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ANZ Group Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -4.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +17.6 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ANZ use?
Our models discount ANZ Group Holdings Ltd at 8.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.56, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For ANZ Group Holdings Ltd that is -4.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ANZ) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at ANZ Group Holdings Ltd grew +17.6 % a year. The price currently implies -4.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ANZ) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (-4.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ANZ)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 20.56 %: that much free cash flow ANZ Group Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ANZ)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ANZ Group Holdings Ltd it is A$27.91 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of A$40.10. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ANZ Group Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, ANZ trades above its calculated fair value: price A$40.10, fair value A$27.91, a gap of about −30% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ANZ?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$40.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$27.91). For ANZ Group Holdings Ltd the two are A$12.19 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ANZ Group Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values ANZ Group Holdings Ltd at about A$127B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is A$40.10; our models calculate a fair value of A$27.91 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ANZ?
Our models span a range for ANZ Group Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario A$20.61, base A$27.91, optimistic A$34.89 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price A$40.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ANZ?
ANZ Group Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.5 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$27.91 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 14.7. Other multiples: PEG 2.1, P/B 1.8, P/S 5.9, EV/EBITDA 17.7.
What is the PEG ratio of ANZ?
The PEG ratio of ANZ Group Holdings Ltd is 2.13 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ANZ)?
Balance-sheet figures for ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 8.2%, debt of 2.38 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ANZ from its 52-week high?
ANZ Group Holdings Ltd trades at A$40.10, about 2% below its 52-week high of A$40.81 and 20% above the low of A$33.43 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$27.91 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ANZ Group Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value JPMorgan Chase & Co, China Construction Bank Corporation, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited, Agricultural Bank of China Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ANZ Group Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price A$40.10, calculated fair value A$27.91 (−30%), Quality Score 65/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ANZ calculated?
We run ANZ Group Holdings Ltd through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$27.91, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. ANZ Group Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ANZ)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was A$40.10. Our model-based fair value is A$27.91, about 30% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ANZ Group Holdings Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$34.89). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ANZ) come from?
Earnings per share at ANZ Group Holdings Ltd grew −1.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +12.5 %, EBIT margin −16.2 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +4.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of ANZ Group Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ANZ)?
The market capitalisation of ANZ Group Holdings Ltd is A$127B (≈ $89.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ANZ)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ANZ Group Holdings Ltd is 5.90 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ANZ)?
Earnings per share at ANZ Group Holdings Ltd are A$1.97 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ANZ)?
The dividend yield of ANZ Group Holdings Ltd is 4.1% (payout 84.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ANZ)?
The net margin of ANZ Group Holdings Ltd is 27.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ANZ)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ANZ Group Holdings Ltd is 8.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ANZ)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ANZ Group Holdings Ltd is 0.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ANZ)?
The operating margin of ANZ Group Holdings Ltd is 48.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ANZ)?
Revenue at ANZ Group Holdings Ltd is growing −2.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +34.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ANZ)?
Earnings per share at ANZ Group Holdings Ltd are growing +0.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ANZ) carry?
The net debt of ANZ Group Holdings Ltd is A$97.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 4, 2026