Agung Podomoro Land Tbk (APLN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Agung Podomoro Land Tbk IDR 85, price IDR 122, upside -30.7%, quality 42 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 80.00 IDR – 216.00 IDR · fair‑value band 63.38 IDR – 105.64 IDR · the 122.00 IDR price screens above the 84.51 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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PT Agung Podomoro Land Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, owns, develops, and manages retail, commercial, and residential real estate properties in Indonesia.
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PT Agung Podomoro Land Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, owns, develops, and manages retail, commercial, and residential real estate properties in Indonesia. The company involved in the land acquisition and sourcing, design and development, project management, commercial leasing, and marketing; and operation and management of superblock developments, shophouses, shopping malls, offices, hotels, and residential apartments and houses. It offers management and business consultancy services; and operates trade centers. The company was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia. PT Agung Podomoro Land Tbk is a subsidiary of PT Indofica.
Stock analysis
Agung Podomoro Land Tbk (APLN) currently trades at 122.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 84.51 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 44.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 340.65 IDR per share, and 4 of the 7 models we run sit above the 122.00 IDR price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at 84.51 IDR, and 3 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 63.38 IDR (bear) to 105.64 IDR (bull), the price of 122.00 IDR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Agung Podomoro Land Tbk reported revenue of 3.6T IDR in FY2025 versus 4.3T IDR in FY2021, a compound −4.3%/yr. Reported net income was 113B IDR in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 2.8T IDR (≈ $155M) · P/E ratio 7.1 · P/S ratio 0.22 · EPS (TTM) 17.28 IDR · Net margin 3.2% · Return on equity 5.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.1% · Operating margin 23.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 54% fair-value upside, at −31%, APLN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 63.38 IDRFair Value 84.51 IDRBull 105.64 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (12.64 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.14/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−36.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−25.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −5.0% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−7.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−7.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−7% vs −19%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.20% → 10%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.2%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Compare Agung Podomoro Land Tbk with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 577 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score43 · Below median
Fair Value upside−31% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6% · Above median
Return on assets3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)7% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)23% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth232% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.38× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)7.1× · Cheaper than median
P/B0.24× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)0.50× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA4.7× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 48
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)24· sector 12
HEALTH (low debt)81· sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 56
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Agung Podomoro Land Tbk Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/APLN
Frequently asked questions
Is Agung Podomoro Land Tbk (APLN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 84.51 IDR versus a price of 122.00 IDR, about −31% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of APLN?
Our model-based fair value for Agung Podomoro Land Tbk is 84.51 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 122.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of APLN?
Agung Podomoro Land Tbk has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Agung Podomoro Land Tbk (APLN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 84.51 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario 63.38 IDR, optimistic scenario 105.64 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Agung Podomoro Land Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 84.51 IDR, about −31% upside versus a price of 122.00 IDR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 63.38 IDR, optimistic scenario 105.64 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Agung Podomoro Land Tbk (APLN)?
Agung Podomoro Land Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 5.6T IDR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Agung Podomoro Land Tbk (APLN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Agung Podomoro Land Tbk it is 84.51 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 122.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Agung Podomoro Land Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, APLN trades above its calculated fair value: price 122.00 IDR, fair value 84.51 IDR, a gap of about −31% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of APLN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (122.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (84.51 IDR). For Agung Podomoro Land Tbk the two are 37.49 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Agung Podomoro Land Tbk worth?
The market values Agung Podomoro Land Tbk at about 2.8T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 122.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 84.51 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about APLN?
Our models span a range for Agung Podomoro Land Tbk: cautious scenario 63.38 IDR, base 84.51 IDR, optimistic 105.64 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 122.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of APLN?
Agung Podomoro Land Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 84.51 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.2, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 4.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Agung Podomoro Land Tbk (APLN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Agung Podomoro Land Tbk (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 5.9%, debt of 0.38 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is APLN from its 52-week high?
Agung Podomoro Land Tbk trades at 122.00 IDR, about 44% below its 52-week high of 216.00 IDR and 28% above the low of 95.00 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 84.51 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Agung Podomoro Land Tbk?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, China Resources Land Limited, Vinhomes Joint Stock Company, CK Asset Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Agung Podomoro Land Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 122.00 IDR, calculated fair value 84.51 IDR (−31%), Quality Score 42/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of APLN calculated?
We run Agung Podomoro Land Tbk through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 84.51 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Agung Podomoro Land Tbk itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Agung Podomoro Land Tbk (APLN)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 122.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 84.51 IDR, about −31% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Agung Podomoro Land Tbk right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (105.64 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Agung Podomoro Land Tbk (APLN) come from?
Earnings per share at Agung Podomoro Land Tbk grew −4.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −3.9 %, EBIT margin −0.6 %, tax rate +0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Agung Podomoro Land Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of Agung Podomoro Land Tbk (APLN)?
The market capitalisation of Agung Podomoro Land Tbk is 2.8T IDR (≈ $155M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Agung Podomoro Land Tbk (APLN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Agung Podomoro Land Tbk is 0.22 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Agung Podomoro Land Tbk (APLN)?
Earnings per share at Agung Podomoro Land Tbk are 17.28 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Agung Podomoro Land Tbk (APLN)?
The net margin of Agung Podomoro Land Tbk is 3.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Agung Podomoro Land Tbk (APLN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Agung Podomoro Land Tbk is 5.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Agung Podomoro Land Tbk (APLN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Agung Podomoro Land Tbk is 5.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Agung Podomoro Land Tbk (APLN)?
The operating margin of Agung Podomoro Land Tbk is 23.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Agung Podomoro Land Tbk (APLN)?
Revenue at Agung Podomoro Land Tbk is growing +232% versus a year earlier (3y avg −25.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Agung Podomoro Land Tbk (APLN)?
Earnings per share at Agung Podomoro Land Tbk are growing −74.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Agung Podomoro Land Tbk (APLN) generate?
The free cash flow of Agung Podomoro Land Tbk is −68.0B IDR (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Agung Podomoro Land Tbk (APLN) carry?
The net debt of Agung Podomoro Land Tbk is 4.5T IDR (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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