Antero Resources Corporation (AR) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $10.4B
Antero Resources Corporation
AR · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Share price −1.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 33% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- Our model range runs from $21.23 (bear) to $36.48 (bull), base $23.29. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 66/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.79 – $48.31 · fair‑value band $21.23 – $36.48 · the $34.90 price screens above the $23.29 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Antero Resources Corporation (AR) currently trades at $34.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $23.29, implying the stock looks roughly 33.3% overvalued today. We read business quality at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Antero Resources Corporation generated revenue of $5.6B at a net margin of 17.1%. Revenue grew 34.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.8%. Net debt stands at $4.9B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $21.23 (bear case) to $36.48 (bull case); at $34.90, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -26% fair-value upside, at -33%, AR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($83.39) versus Dividend Discount ($6.51). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 69 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Antero Resources Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the development, production, exploration, and acquisition of natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and oil properties in the United States. It operates in three segments: Exploration and Production; Marketing; and Equity Method Investment in Antero Midstream.
Full company description
Antero Resources Corporation, an independent oil and natural gas company, engages in the development, production, exploration, and acquisition of natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and oil properties in the United States. It operates in three segments: Exploration and Production; Marketing; and Equity Method Investment in Antero Midstream. As of December 31, 2025, the company had approximately 537,000 net acres in the Appalachian Basin; and approximately 168,000 net acres in the Upper Devonian Shale. Its gathering and compression systems also comprise 731 miles of gas gathering pipelines in the Appalachian Basin. The company was formerly known as Antero Resources Appalachian Corporation and changed its name to Antero Resources Corporation in June 2013. Antero Resources Corporation was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Antero Resources Corporation reported revenue of $5.0B in FY2025 versus $5.8B in FY2021, a compound −3.5%/yr. Reported net income was $634M in FY2025.
AR screens 33% overvalued. Compare with CNOOC Limited →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Antero Resources (AR) Could Be 25% Undervalued On Higher 2026 Production Guidance
- Antero Resources Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
- How Record Q2 Results, Raised Guidance and Buybacks At Antero Resources (AR) Have Changed Its Investment Story
- Antero Resources’ (AR) Strategic Role in AI Infrastructure Expansion
Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 316 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥28.97 | ¥32.55 | +12% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $109.04 | $91.79 | -16% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | $42.86 | $31.54 | -26% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $139.89 | $130.19 | -7% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $54.86 | $30.68 | -44% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $183.39 | $106.12 | -42% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $43.83 | $27.06 | -38% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$30.46 | A$20.71 | -32% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $48.85 | $42.85 | -12% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $415.70 | $79.20 | -81% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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