Arena REIT (ARF) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · AU · Market cap A$1.3B
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price +1.5% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 27% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (A$1.84 to A$3.62) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$2.58 – A$4.08 · fair‑value band A$1.84 – A$3.62 · the A$3.28 price screens above the A$2.40 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Arena REIT (ARF) currently trades at A$3.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$2.40, implying the stock looks roughly 26.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at A$116M. Revenue grew 12.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.9%. Net debt stands at A$420M. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$1.84 (bear case) to A$3.62 (bull case); at A$3.28, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -50% fair-value upside, at -27%, ARF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (A$3.24) versus Dividend Discount (A$1.57). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Arena REIT is an ASX200 listed property group that develops, owns and manages social infrastructure properties across Australia. Our current portfolio of social infrastructure properties is leased to a diversified tenant base in the growing childcare and healthcare sectors. Arena REIT was established on August 27, 2003 and incorporated in Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Arena REIT reported revenue of A$110M in FY2025 versus A$70.8M in FY2021, a compound +11.7%/yr. Reported net income was A$81.5M in FY2025, compounding −16.2%/yr from FY2021.
ARF screens 27% overvalued. Compare with Equinix, Inc →
Peer Group
REIT - Specialty · 34 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Specialty median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Specialty stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Equinix, Inc EQIX | $1,009 | $232.70 | -77% |
| American Tower Corporation AMT | $164.65 | $92.31 | -44% |
| Digital Realty Trust, Inc DLR | $199.08 | $63.31 | -68% |
| Iron Mountain Incorporated IRM | $128.31 | $40.43 | -68% |
| Crown Castle Inc CCI | $74.90 | $37.67 | -50% |
| SBA Communications Corporation SBAC | $173.57 | $143.83 | -17% |
| Weyerhaeuser Company WY | $23.94 | $8.62 | -64% |
| Lamar Advertising Company LAMR | $159.46 | $102.70 | -36% |
| Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc GLPI | $45.17 | $36.60 | -19% |
| Rayonier Inc RYN | $21.58 | $9.96 | -54% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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