Rayonier Inc (RYN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Rayonier Inc stock $10.23, price $21.55, that is 52.5% below the price, quality 59 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $17.99 – $33.52 · fair‑value band $7.36 – $13.60 · the $21.55 price screens above the $10.23 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Rayonier Inc. is a land resources real estate investment trust (REIT) with a portfolio comprising over four million acres in the U.S. South and U.S. Northwest.
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The company is focused on managing its timberlands on a sustainable basis while optimizing its overall portfolio value by delivering land to its highest and best use.
Rayonier also operates six sawmills, an industrial-grade plywood mill, residential and commercial real estate developments, and a rural land sales program.
Rayonier is committed to corporate responsibility, third-party forest certification, and supporting climate change mitigation through its land-based solutions business. Rayonier Inc. was incorporated in 1926 in North Carolina and is based in Yulee, Florida.
Stock analysis
Rayonier Inc (RYN) currently trades at $21.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.23, 53% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $12.35 per share, and 0 of the 16 models we run sit above the $21.55 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $4.97, and 16 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $7.36 (bear) to $13.60 (bull), the price of $21.55 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Rayonier Inc reported revenue of $485M in FY2025 versus $1.1B in FY2021, a compound −18.7%/yr. Reported net income was $474M in FY2025, compounding +32.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $6.0B Mid · P/E ratio 46.6 · P/S ratio 45.6 · EPS (TTM) $0.4600 · Dividend yield 4.9% · Net margin 97.9% · Return on equity 2.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.3% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at −53%, RYN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$7.36Fair Value $10.23Bull$13.60
Price $21.55 · Downside -52.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors sold shares worth $124,088 and none bought.
SaleRyan M. DanielsSVP, Wood Products2× since Sep 30, 2026: 901 shares, avg. $18.55$16,718Oct 2, 2026
SaleMark R BridwellEVP, GC and Secretary5,318 shares at $20.19$107,370Sep 10, 2026
SaleWayne WasechekEVP and CFO2,920 shares at $21.17$61,816Apr 20, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleEric J CremersExecutive Chairman, Director169,200 shares at $21.44$3.6MFeb 27, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleChristopher T CorrSVP, Real Estate Development14,255 shares at $21.12$301,066Nov 19, 2025
Plus 10 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.77/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.2%
Revenue growth 31 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
≈ +66.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year≈ +61.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.9%
Per share before 2014divided by the spin-off factor 1.339
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 45.6% / 14.7%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 17%
2025 sits 160% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
⚠ Base effect: the rate starts in the earnings trough around 2020 (starting value 0.46 per share, median 0.98 in 2015 to 2018). It measures the recovery from the trough, not lasting growth.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.5% a year for the price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Converting timberlands into development projects and solar leases offers potential for higher real estate margins, yet weak moat and lumber price volatility constrain durable advantage overall.
Main risk: Weyerhaeuser, a larger integrated rival, is deploying AI across logging, replanting and mill operations to raise yields and cut costs without higher lumber prices, which could erode Rayonier's timber margins and market position in wood products.
Bull case: Successful integration after the PotlatchDeltic merger combined with accelerated land-based solutions such as solar options could strengthen Rayonier's position relative to pure timber peers and offset competitive pressures in harvesting.
Bear case: If Weyerhaeuser's AI-driven cost advantages widen or regulatory delays stall real estate and solar projects, Rayonier could remain heavily exposed to volatile timber and lumber markets with limited margin uplift from land conversion.
Rayonier is converting parts of its timberlands into higher-value development projects and solar leases while maintaining core harvesting operations. These steps could lift real estate margins substantially, yet most revenue and cash flow still come from timber segments exposed to lumber prices. Will the gains from land conversion outpace the returns from traditional timber management?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Specialty · 29 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside−52.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)2.0% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets13.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)7.8% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)11.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)272.1% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)4.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.38× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Specialty median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Rayonier Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/RYN
Frequently asked questions
Is Rayonier Inc (RYN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $10.23 versus a price of $21.55, about 53% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of RYN?
Our model-based fair value for Rayonier Inc is $10.23 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $21.55.
What is the quality score of RYN?
Rayonier Inc has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Rayonier Inc (RYN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $10.23 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $7.36, optimistic scenario $13.60. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Rayonier Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $10.23, about 53% lower versus a price of $21.55 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $7.36, optimistic scenario $13.60. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Rayonier Inc (RYN)?
Rayonier Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $968M (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Rayonier Inc pay a dividend?
Rayonier Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 4.94% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Rayonier Inc (RYN) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Rayonier Inc pays a dividend of $1.07 per share a year, a dividend yield of 4.9%. The next ex-dividend date is Dec 17, 2026, with payment on Dec 31, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1994. Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.65 times. Our assessment: Pays more than it earns. The company pays out more in dividends than it earns, and free cash flow clearly does not cover the dividend either. It may need to be cut unless profits recover.
What growth is priced into Rayonier Inc (RYN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Rayonier Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +7.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -10.8 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of RYN use?
Our models discount Rayonier Inc at 9.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.91, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Rayonier Inc that is +7.0 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Rayonier Inc (RYN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Rayonier Inc grew -10.8 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +7.0 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Rayonier Inc (RYN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Rayonier Inc (+7.0 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Rayonier Inc (RYN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.91 %: that much free cash flow Rayonier Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Rayonier Inc (RYN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Rayonier Inc it is $10.23 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $21.55. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Rayonier Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, RYN trades above its calculated fair value: price $21.55, fair value $10.23, a gap of about −53% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RYN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($21.55); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($10.23). For Rayonier Inc the two are $11.32 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Rayonier Inc worth?
The market values Rayonier Inc at about $6.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $21.55; our models calculate a fair value of $10.23 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RYN?
Our models span a range for Rayonier Inc: cautious scenario $7.36, base $10.23, optimistic $13.60 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $21.55). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of RYN?
Rayonier Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 46.6 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $10.23 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 37.8 (reported for FY2025: 7.4). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 36.6. Other multiples: PEG 23.2, P/B 2.7, P/S 6.2, EV/EBITDA 17.7.
What is the PEG ratio of RYN?
The PEG ratio of Rayonier Inc is 23.24 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Rayonier Inc (RYN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Rayonier Inc (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 2.0%, debt of 0.38 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RYN from its 52-week high?
Rayonier Inc trades at $21.55, about 9% below its 52-week high of $23.73 and 20% above the low of $17.99 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $10.23 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Rayonier Inc?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Equinix, Inc, American Tower Corporation, Digital Realty Trust, Inc, Crown Castle Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Rayonier Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $21.55, calculated fair value $10.23 (−53%), Quality Score 59/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RYN calculated?
We run Rayonier Inc through 16 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $10.23 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Rayonier Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Rayonier Inc (RYN)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $21.55. Our model-based fair value is $10.23, about 53% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Rayonier Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($13.60). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($7.36 to $13.60) leaves room in how you read the outcome. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Rayonier Inc (RYN) come from?
Earnings per share at Rayonier Inc grew +9.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.0 %, EBIT margin +1.2 %, tax rate −0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +6.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Rayonier Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Rayonier Inc (RYN)?
The market capitalisation of Rayonier Inc is $6.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Rayonier Inc (RYN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Rayonier Inc is 45.6 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Rayonier Inc (RYN)?
Earnings per share at Rayonier Inc are $0.4600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 46.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Rayonier Inc (RYN)?
The dividend yield of Rayonier Inc is 4.9%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Rayonier Inc (RYN)?
The net margin of Rayonier Inc is 97.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Rayonier Inc (RYN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Rayonier Inc is 2.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Rayonier Inc (RYN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Rayonier Inc is 6.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Rayonier Inc (RYN)?
The operating margin of Rayonier Inc is 11.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Rayonier Inc (RYN)?
Revenue at Rayonier Inc is growing +272% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Rayonier Inc (RYN)?
Earnings per share at Rayonier Inc are growing −97.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Rayonier Inc (RYN) carry?
The net debt of Rayonier Inc is $230M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026