Arena REIT (ARF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Arena REIT A$2.31, price A$2.02, upside +14.4%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$2.02 – A$4.00 · fair‑value band A$1.54 – A$3.08 · the A$2.02 price screens below the A$2.31 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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Arena REIT is an ASX200 listed property group that develops, owns and manages social infrastructure properties across Australia. Our current portfolio of social infrastructure properties is leased to a diversified tenant base in the growing childcare and healthcare sectors. Arena REIT was established on August 27, 2003 and incorporated in Australia.
Stock analysis
Arena REIT (ARF) currently trades at A$2.02, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$2.31, implying the stock looks roughly 12.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of A$3.78 per share, and 5 of the 9 models we run sit above the A$2.02 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at A$1.69, and 4 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: A$1.54 (bear) to A$3.08 (bull), the price of A$2.02 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Arena REIT reported revenue of A$117M in FY2026 versus A$81.2M in FY2022, a compound +9.6%/yr. Reported net income was A$122M in FY2026, compounding −22.3%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$821M (≈ $571M) · P/E ratio 6.1 · P/S ratio 6.36 · EPS (TTM) A$0.3300 · Dividend yield 9.6% · Net margin 104% · Return on equity 9.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at 14%, ARF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$1.54Fair Value A$2.31Bull A$3.08
Price A$2.02 · Upside +14.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 3 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0357 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.49/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.6%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +13.3% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+18.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)9.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−9.1% vs −0.5%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.91% → 98%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Specialty · 32 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+14.4% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9.3% · Above median
Return on assets3.4% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)112.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)89.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth1.8% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)9.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.34× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Specialty median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Arena REIT Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ARF
Frequently asked questions
Is Arena REIT (ARF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$2.31 versus a price of A$2.02, about +14% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ARF?
Our model-based fair value for Arena REIT is A$2.31 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$2.02.
What is the quality score of ARF?
Arena REIT has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Arena REIT (ARF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$2.31 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$1.54, optimistic scenario A$3.08. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Arena REIT stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$2.31, about +14% upside versus a price of A$2.02 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$1.54, optimistic scenario A$3.08. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Arena REIT (ARF)?
Arena REIT reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$117M (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Arena REIT pay a dividend?
Arena REIT currently shows a dividend yield of about 9.55% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Arena REIT (ARF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Arena REIT it is A$2.31 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of A$2.02. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Arena REIT stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, ARF trades below its calculated fair value: price A$2.02, fair value A$2.31, a gap of about +14% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ARF?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$2.02); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$2.31). For Arena REIT the two are A$0.2900 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Arena REIT worth?
The market values Arena REIT at about A$821M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is A$2.02; our models calculate a fair value of A$2.31 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ARF?
Our models span a range for Arena REIT: cautious scenario A$1.54, base A$2.31, optimistic A$3.08 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price A$2.02). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ARF?
Arena REIT trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.1 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$2.31 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.6, P/S 7.0, EV/EBITDA 11.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Arena REIT (ARF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Arena REIT (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 9.3%, debt of 0.34 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ARF from its 52-week high?
Arena REIT trades at A$2.02, about 45% below its 52-week high of A$3.67 and at the low of A$2.02 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$2.31 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Arena REIT?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Equinix, Inc, American Tower Corporation, Digital Realty Trust, Inc, Iron Mountain Incorporated, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Arena REIT stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price A$2.02, calculated fair value A$2.31 (+14%), Quality Score 47/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ARF calculated?
We run Arena REIT through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$2.31, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Arena REIT currently trades 13 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Arena REIT (ARF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was A$2.02. Our model-based fair value is A$2.31, about +14% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Arena REIT right now?
A fairly wide model range (A$1.54 to A$3.08) leaves room in how you read the outcome. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Arena REIT
How large is the market capitalisation of Arena REIT (ARF)?
The market capitalisation of Arena REIT is A$821M (≈ $571M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Arena REIT (ARF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Arena REIT is 6.36 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Arena REIT (ARF)?
Earnings per share at Arena REIT are A$0.3300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Arena REIT (ARF)?
The dividend yield of Arena REIT is 9.6% (payout 58.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Arena REIT (ARF)?
The net margin of Arena REIT is 104% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Arena REIT (ARF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Arena REIT is 9.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Arena REIT (ARF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Arena REIT is 5.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Arena REIT (ARF)?
The operating margin of Arena REIT is 89.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Arena REIT (ARF)?
Revenue at Arena REIT is growing +1.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Arena REIT (ARF)?
Earnings per share at Arena REIT are growing −51.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Arena REIT (ARF) generate?
The free cash flow of Arena REIT is −A$78.5M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Arena REIT (ARF) carry?
The net debt of Arena REIT is A$488M (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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