Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARWR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.99 – $90.32 · fair‑value band $10.29 – $29.19 · the $66.48 price screens above the $19.81 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. develops medicines for the treatment of intractable diseases in the United States.
Show more
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. develops medicines for the treatment of intractable diseases in the United States. Its pipeline includes Plozasiran to reduce production of apolipoprotein C-III in Phase 3 studies; Zodasiran to reduce production of angiopoietin-like protein 3 in Phase 3 clinical trials; ARO-DIMER-PA, a dual functional RNAi molecule in a Phase 1/2a clinical trials; and ARO-PNPLA3, an investigational RNAi therapeutic in Phase 1 clinical trials. The company also develops ARO-INHBE, to reduce the hepatic expression of the INHBE gene and its secreted gene product, Activin E in Phase 1/2a clinical trials; ARO-ALK7 to silence adipocyte expression of the ACVR1C gene in Phase 1/2a clinical trials; ARO-RAGE to reduce production of the receptor for advanced glycation end products in Phase 1/2a clinical trials; and ARO-MAPT, an investigational RNAi-based therapy. In addition, it is developing ARO-C3 to reduce production of C3 in Phase 1/2a clinical trials; and ARO-CFB to reduce hepatic expression of CFB in a Phase 1/2a clinical trials. The company has collaboration and license Agreements with Glaxosmithkline Intellectual Property (No. 3) Limited; Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited; Amgen Inc.; and Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Pasadena, California.
Stock analysis
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARWR) currently trades at $66.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $19.81, implying the stock looks roughly 235.6% overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $24.70 per share, and 0 of the 13 models we run sit above the $66.48 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.22, and 13 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $10.29 (bear) to $29.19 (bull), the price of $66.48 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc reported revenue of $829M in FY2025 versus $138M in FY2021, a compound +56.5%/yr. Reported net income was −$1.6M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $10.1B · P/S ratio 17.0 · EPS (TTM) $−2.27 · Net margin −0.2% · Return on equity −42.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −23.8% · Operating margin −192% · Revenue (TTM) $622M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 365% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −7% fair-value upside, at −70%, ARWR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($2.22 to $35.08). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear $10.29Fair Value $19.81Bull $29.19
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.59/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+50.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+56.6%
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+39.3%
’13
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−105.9% (2020) → 11.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+28.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−27.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Compare Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 653 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Above median
Fair Value upside−89% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−7% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)−48% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−192% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−86% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.46× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
P/B21.57× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)16.16× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF64.1× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)77· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 23
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARWR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $19.81 versus a price of $66.48, about −70% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ARWR?
Our model-based fair value for Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc is $19.81 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $66.48.
What is the quality score of ARWR?
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARWR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $19.81 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.29, optimistic scenario $29.19. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $19.81, about −70% upside versus a price of $66.48 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $10.29, optimistic scenario $29.19. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARWR)?
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $622M (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
What growth is priced into Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARWR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +28.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +56.6 % per year. As of Sep 18, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ARWR use?
Our models discount Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc at 9.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.29, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc that is +28.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARWR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc grew +56.6 % a year. The price currently implies +28.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARWR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (+28.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARWR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.76 %: that much free cash flow Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARWR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc it is $19.81 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of $66.48. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, ARWR trades above its calculated fair value: price $66.48, fair value $19.81, a gap of about −70% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ARWR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($66.48); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($19.81). For Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc the two are $46.67 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc worth?
The market values Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc at about $10.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is $66.48; our models calculate a fair value of $19.81 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ARWR?
Our models span a range for Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc: cautious scenario $10.29, base $19.81, optimistic $29.19 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price $66.48). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARWR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity −42.4%, debt of 0.46 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ARWR from its 52-week high?
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc trades at $66.48, about 19% below its 52-week high of $82.26 and 365% above the low of $14.30 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $19.81 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, BeOne Medicines AG, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price $66.48, calculated fair value $19.81 (−70%), Quality Score 51/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ARWR calculated?
We run Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $19.81, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARWR)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $66.48. Our model-based fair value is $19.81, about −70% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($29.19). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($10.29 to $29.19). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARWR)?
The market capitalisation of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc is $10.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARWR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc is 17.0 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARWR)?
Earnings per share at Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc are $−2.27. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARWR)?
The net margin of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc is −0.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARWR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc is −42.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARWR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc is −23.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARWR)?
The operating margin of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc is −192% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARWR)?
Revenue at Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc is growing −86.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +50.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARWR)?
Earnings per share at Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc are growing +9.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARWR) carry?
The net debt of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc is $140M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc in the live analysis
One click puts Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Thin data
Sep 18, 2026