Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARWR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc stock $10.85, price $57.46, that is 81.1% below the price, quality 52 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 13 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.99 – $89.59 · fair‑value band $7.89 – $13.81 · the $57.46 price screens above the $10.85 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 1, 2026.
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Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. develops medicines for the treatment of intractable diseases in the United States.
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Its pipeline includes Plozasiran to reduce production of apolipoprotein C-III in Phase 3 studies; Zodasiran to reduce production of angiopoietin-like protein 3 in Phase 3 clinical trials; ARO-DIMER-PA, a dual functional RNAi molecule in a Phase 1/2a clinical trials; and ARO-PNPLA3, an investigational RNAi therapeutic in Phase 1 clinical trials.
The company also develops ARO-INHBE, to reduce the hepatic expression of the INHBE gene and its secreted gene product, Activin E in Phase 1/2a clinical trials; ARO-ALK7 to silence adipocyte expression of the ACVR1C gene in Phase 1/2a clinical trials; ARO-RAGE to reduce production of the receptor for advanced glycation end products in Phase 1/2a clinical trials; and ARO-MAPT, an investigational RNAi-based therapy.
In addition, it is developing ARO-C3 to reduce production of C3 in Phase 1/2a clinical trials; and ARO-CFB to reduce hepatic expression of CFB in a Phase 1/2a clinical trials.
The company has collaboration and license Agreements with Glaxosmithkline Intellectual Property (No. 3) Limited; Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited; Amgen Inc.; and Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Pasadena, California.
Stock analysis
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARWR) currently trades at $57.46, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.85, 81% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $14.01 per share, and 0 of the 13 models we run sit above the $57.46 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $5.29, and 13 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $7.89 (bear) to $13.81 (bull), the price of $57.46 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc reported revenue of $829M in FY2025 versus $138M in FY2021, a compound +56.5%/yr. Reported net income was −$1.6M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $8.2B Mid · P/S ratio 12.3 · EPS (TTM) $−2.28 · Net margin −47.8% · Return on equity −55.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −23.8% · Operating margin −226% · Revenue (TTM) $669M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 17 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 8% fair-value upside, at −81%, ARWR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($0.2200 to $18.39). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear$7.89Fair Value $10.85Bull$13.81
Price $57.46 · Downside -81.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 3 officers or directors sold shares worth $1.4M and none bought.
SaleAdeoye Y OlukotunDirector2× since Dec 19, 2025: 12,000 shares, avg. $70.88$850,543Aug 18, 2026
SaleMichael S PerryDirector2× since Dec 5, 2025: 27,850 shares, avg. $71.97$2.0MAug 18, 2026
SaleHongbo LuDirector2,970 shares at $76.88$228,334May 12, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleJames C HamiltonChief Medical Officer3× since Jan 5, 2026: 60,164 shares, avg. $65.26$3.9MApr 23, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleDaniel Joseph ApelChief Financial Officer13,095 shares at $71.35$934,285Apr 22, 202610b5-1 plan
SalePatrick O'BrienCOO49,493 shares at $63.11$3.1MJan 5, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleChristopher Richard AnzaloneChief Executive Officer, Director5× since Dec 15, 2025: 360,242 shares, avg. $66.65$24.0MJan 2, 2026
SaleMauro FerrariDirector2× since Nov 28, 2025: 16,280 shares, avg. $62.69$1.0MDec 26, 2025
SaleWilliam D. WaddillDirector8,367 shares at $67.65$566,038Dec 19, 202510b5-1 plan
SaleVictoria VakienerDirector10,040 shares at $67.68$679,491Dec 19, 202510b5-1 plan
Plus one other filing such as a grant, option exercise or tax withholding. It is not a market purchase or sale.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.59/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+50.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+56.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +115.6% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+51.7%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−105.9% (2020) → 11.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+28.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−31.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +25.5% a year for the price and −33.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Average positioning with limited evidence of a durable moat in biotechnology is offset by the main weakness of negative net income and thin margins.
Main risk: Oral small molecules from Merck or Lilly could reset payer expectations for chronic lipid management and force lower prices or reduced market share for Arrowhead’s siRNA therapies in cardiometabolic indications.
Bull case: Arrowhead could leverage superior adherence data from infrequent dosing and expand into extra-hepatic indications to maintain differentiation against oral competitors.
Bear case: If oral small molecules gain broad payer preference, Arrowhead’s siRNA products could face sharply lower uptake and pricing pressure in large cardiometabolic markets.
Arrowhead just secured FDA entry for plozasiran into the STAR pilot program, opening a faster review track for the planned sNDA in severe hypertriglyceridemia while preserving the company’s priority review voucher. Submission is targeted by year end, which could speed access to a larger patient group. Our models still see the stock as overvalued. Does this regulatory tailwind reduce the risks of clinical and commercial execution enough to close the gap?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 566 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Above median
Fair Value upside−81.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−0.1% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)−47.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)171.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.46× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
P/B17.68× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)12.31× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow52.5× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)77· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 22
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARWR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $10.85 versus a price of $57.46, about 81% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ARWR?
Our model-based fair value for Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc is $10.85 (as of Nov 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $57.46.
What is the quality score of ARWR?
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARWR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $10.85 (as of Nov 1, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $7.89, optimistic scenario $13.81. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $10.85, about 81% lower versus a price of $57.46 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $7.89, optimistic scenario $13.81. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARWR)?
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $669M (latest available figure, as of Nov 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARWR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +28.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +56.6 % per year. As of Nov 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ARWR use?
Our models discount Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc at 10.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.30, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc that is +28.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARWR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc grew +56.6 % a year. The price currently implies +28.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARWR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (+28.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARWR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.90 % in the last fiscal year (free cash flow was negative over the last twelve months): that much free cash flow Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARWR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc it is $10.85 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026), against a price of $57.46. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 1, 2026, ARWR trades above its calculated fair value: price $57.46, fair value $10.85, a gap of about −81% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ARWR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($57.46); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($10.85). For Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc the two are $46.61 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc worth?
The market values Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc at about $8.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 1, 2026). Per share that is $57.46; our models calculate a fair value of $10.85 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ARWR?
Our models span a range for Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc: cautious scenario $7.89, base $10.85, optimistic $13.81 per share (as of Nov 1, 2026, price $57.46). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARWR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (as of Nov 1, 2026): return on equity −55.2%, debt of 0.46 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ARWR from its 52-week high?
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc trades at $57.46, about 36% below its 52-week high of $89.59 and 51% above the low of $38.09 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $10.85 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, CSL Limited, argenx SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 1, 2026: price $57.46, calculated fair value $10.85 (−81%), Quality Score 52/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ARWR calculated?
We run Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $10.85, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARWR)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $57.46. Our model-based fair value is $10.85, about 81% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($13.81). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARWR)?
The market capitalisation of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc is $8.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARWR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc is 12.3 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARWR)?
Earnings per share at Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc are $−2.28. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARWR)?
The net margin of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc is −47.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARWR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc is −55.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARWR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc is −23.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARWR)?
The operating margin of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc is −226% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARWR)?
Revenue at Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc is growing +171% versus a year earlier (3y avg +50.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARWR)?
Earnings per share at Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc are growing +9.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc (ARWR) carry?
The net debt of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc is $140M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 1, 2026