Aspo Oyj (ASPO) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · FI · Market cap €196M
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 11 valuation models · updated 29 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from €11.68 to €12.52 (+7.2%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price +14.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 75% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (€9.39). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (47/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €4.42 – €10.56 · fair‑value band €9.39 – €15.64 · the €7.16 price screens below the €12.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
Aspo Oyj (ASPO) currently trades at €7.16, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €12.52, implying the stock looks roughly 74.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Aspo Oyj generated revenue of €467M at a net margin of 7.6%. Revenue declined 1.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.7%. Net debt stands at €201M. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €9.39 (bear case) to €15.64 (bull case); at €7.16, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -14% fair-value upside, at 75%, ASPO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 11 models by family
Widest divergence: Earnings-Based (€13.36) versus Dividend Discount (€1.87). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 69
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Aspo Oyj provides shipping services in Finland, Scandinavia, the Baltic countries, other European countries, and internationally. It operates through ESL Shipping and Telko segments. The ESL Shipping segment conducts sea transportation of raw materials for industry and the energy sector; and offers related services.
Full company description
Aspo Oyj provides shipping services in Finland, Scandinavia, the Baltic countries, other European countries, and internationally. It operates through ESL Shipping and Telko segments. The ESL Shipping segment conducts sea transportation of raw materials for industry and the energy sector; and offers related services. The Telko segment acquires and supplies plastic raw materials, chemicals, and lubricants to industries. This segment also provides technical support services; and engages in the development of production processes. Aspo Oyj was founded in 1929 and is based in Espoo, Finland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Aspo Oyj reported revenue of €469M in FY2025 versus €573M in FY2021, a compound −4.9%/yr. Reported net income was €23.5M in FY2025, compounding −1.8%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +1.6 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.5 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Conglomerates · 369 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Conglomerates stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CITIC Limited 0267 | HK$11.28 | HK$22.56 | +100% |
| SK Inc 034730 | 580,000 KRW | 497,919 KRW | -14% |
| PT Astra International Tbk, ASII | 4,810 IDR | 9,620 IDR | +100% |
| The Siam Cement Public Company SCC | 254.00 THB | 199.40 THB | -21% |
| SRF Limited SRF | ₹2,875 | ₹1,053 | -63% |
| Empresas Copec S.A COPEC | 6,330 CLP | 10,879 CLP | +72% |
| Posco International Corporation 047050 | 50,900 KRW | 61,248 KRW | +20% |
| Tube Investments of India Limited TIINDIA | ₹2,940 | ₹559.30 | -81% |
| Doosan Corporation 000155 | 464,000 KRW | 75,620 KRW | -84% |
| Thermax Limited THERMAX | ₹4,809 | ₹1,087 | -77% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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