Aspo Oyj (ASPO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Aspo Oyj stock €7.50, price €6.62, upside +13.3%, quality 53 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 11 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €4.42 – €10.56 · fair‑value band €4.41 – €12.55 · the €6.62 price screens below the €7.50 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Aspo Oyj provides shipping services in Finland, Scandinavia, the Baltic countries, other European countries, and internationally. It operates through ESL Shipping and Telko segments.
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The ESL Shipping segment conducts sea transportation of raw materials for industry and the energy sector; and offers related services. The Telko segment acquires and supplies plastic raw materials, chemicals, and lubricants to industries.
This segment also provides technical support services; and engages in the development of production processes. Aspo Oyj was founded in 1929 and is based in Espoo, Finland.
Stock analysis
Aspo Oyj (ASPO) currently trades at €6.62, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €7.50, implying the stock looks roughly 12% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of €13.36 per share, and 4 of the 9 models we run sit above the €6.62 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €1.41, and 5 of the 9 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €4.41 (bear) to €12.55 (bull), the price of €6.62 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Aspo Oyj reported revenue of €469M in FY2025 versus €573M in FY2021, a compound −4.9%/yr. Reported net income was €23.5M in FY2025, compounding −1.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €207M Micro · P/E ratio 7.9 · P/S ratio 0.39 · EPS (TTM) €0.8400 · Dividend yield 3.8% · Net margin 5.0% · Return on equity 17.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.7% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 8% fair-value upside, at 13%, ASPO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€4.41Fair Value €7.50Bull€12.55
Price €6.62 · Upside +13.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.5059 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.2%
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +12.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.6.8% vs 1.7%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 7%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 256% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+23.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +20.9% a year for the price and +0.6% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 304 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Below median
Fair Value upside+13.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)17.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets4.6% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)8.0% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)4.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)24.1% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)3.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.35× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)7.9× · Cheapest 25%
P/B1.45× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)0.42× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)17.3× · Pricier than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Aspo Oyj Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ASPO
Frequently asked questions
Is Aspo Oyj (ASPO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €7.50 versus a price of €6.62, about +13% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ASPO?
Our model-based fair value for Aspo Oyj is €7.50 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €6.62.
What is the quality score of ASPO?
Aspo Oyj has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aspo Oyj (ASPO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €7.50 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario €4.41, optimistic scenario €12.55. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Aspo Oyj stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €7.50, about +13% upside versus a price of €6.62 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €4.41, optimistic scenario €12.55. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Aspo Oyj (ASPO)?
Aspo Oyj reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €499M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Aspo Oyj pay a dividend?
Aspo Oyj currently shows a dividend yield of 3.78% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Aspo Oyj (ASPO) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Aspo Oyj pays a dividend of €0.25 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.8%. The last ex-dividend date was Apr 20, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2000. The payout ratio is 29.8% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.53 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Aspo Oyj (ASPO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Aspo Oyj would have to grow free cash flow by +23.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.3 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ASPO use?
Our models discount Aspo Oyj at 11.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.55, country premium for Finland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Aspo Oyj that is +23.5 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Aspo Oyj (ASPO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Aspo Oyj grew -1.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +23.5 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Aspo Oyj (ASPO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Aspo Oyj (+23.5 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Aspo Oyj (ASPO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.78 %: that much free cash flow Aspo Oyj produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Aspo Oyj (ASPO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aspo Oyj it is €7.50 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of €6.62. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Aspo Oyj stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, ASPO trades below its calculated fair value: price €6.62, fair value €7.50, a gap of about +13% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ASPO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€6.62); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€7.50). For Aspo Oyj the two are €0.8800 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Aspo Oyj worth?
The market values Aspo Oyj at about €207M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is €6.62; our models calculate a fair value of €7.50 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ASPO?
Our models span a range for Aspo Oyj: cautious scenario €4.41, base €7.50, optimistic €12.55 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price €6.62). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ASPO?
Aspo Oyj trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.9 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €7.50 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 15.8. Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/B 1.5, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 8.8.
What is the PEG ratio of ASPO?
The PEG ratio of Aspo Oyj is 0.64 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Aspo Oyj (ASPO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Aspo Oyj (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 17.3%, debt of 1.35 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ASPO from its 52-week high?
Aspo Oyj trades at €6.62, about 14% below its 52-week high of €7.71 and 15% above the low of €5.74 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €7.50 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Aspo Oyj?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, Swire Pacific Limited, SGH Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Aspo Oyj stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price €6.62, calculated fair value €7.50 (+13%), Quality Score 53/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ASPO calculated?
We run Aspo Oyj through 11 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €7.50 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Aspo Oyj currently trades 12% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Aspo Oyj (ASPO)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was €6.62. Our model-based fair value is €7.50, about +13% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Aspo Oyj right now?
The model range is unusually wide (€4.41 to €12.55). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Aspo Oyj (ASPO) come from?
Earnings per share at Aspo Oyj grew −6.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.1 %, EBIT margin +0.5 %, tax rate −1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −6.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Aspo Oyj
How large is the market capitalisation of Aspo Oyj (ASPO)?
The market capitalisation of Aspo Oyj is €207M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Aspo Oyj (ASPO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Aspo Oyj is 0.39 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Aspo Oyj (ASPO)?
Earnings per share at Aspo Oyj are €0.8400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Aspo Oyj (ASPO)?
The dividend yield of Aspo Oyj is 3.8% (payout 29.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Aspo Oyj (ASPO)?
The net margin of Aspo Oyj is 5.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Aspo Oyj (ASPO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Aspo Oyj is 17.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Aspo Oyj (ASPO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aspo Oyj is 6.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Aspo Oyj (ASPO)?
The operating margin of Aspo Oyj is 4.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Aspo Oyj (ASPO)?
Revenue at Aspo Oyj is growing +24.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Aspo Oyj (ASPO)?
Earnings per share at Aspo Oyj are growing −29.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Aspo Oyj (ASPO) carry?
The net debt of Aspo Oyj is €201M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 16.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 8, 2026