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ASR Nederland N.V (ASRNL) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · NL · Market cap €14.3B

AN ASR Nederland N.V ASRNL · AS
Price€70.84
Fair Value€36.99
Upside-47.8%
Quality43/100
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Mixed Growth
Thin margins · 3.2% net margin
Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
4.92% dividend yield
Trails peers (5/13)
Moderate moat 50/100
Evidence: High Range €27.74 – €46.23 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026

From 16 valuation models · updated 21 days ago

Share price +6.0% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 48% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€46.23). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
  • For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

€70.88 €23.97 Fair Value €36.99 Jun 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €23.97 – €70.88 · fair‑value band €27.74 – €46.23 · the €70.84 price screens above the €36.99 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

ASR Nederland N.V (ASRNL) currently trades at €70.84, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €36.99, implying the stock looks roughly 47.8% overvalued today. We read business quality at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, ASR Nederland N.V generated revenue of €17.1B at a net margin of 3.2%. Revenue grew 9.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.7%. Net debt stands at €7.7B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €27.74 (bear case) to €46.23 (bull case); at €70.84, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -12% fair-value upside, at -48%, ASRNL screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income €34.24 €36.12 €38.18 76
ROIC Compounder €0.3600 €4.19 72
Gordon GGM €29.94 €45.63 €62.48 70
All 16 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings €6.18 €21.25 €42.31 31
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €19.35 €41.06 €52.07 54
PEG = 1.0 €6.23 €8.91 €11.58 46
EPV €0.3600 €4.19 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €29.94 €45.63 €62.48 70
DDM Multi-Stage €29.94 €42.90 €57.65 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple €42.68 €56.90 €71.13 63
P/S Multiple €36.28 €48.37 €60.46 58
P/B Multiple €36.28 €48.37 €60.46 55
EV/EBIT €15.60 €30.91 €46.22 53
EV/EBITDA €9.99 €23.43 €36.87 54
EV/Revenue €0.6300 €13.90 €27.17 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €21.03 €28.18 €42.06 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income €34.24 €36.12 €38.18 76
ROIC Compounder €0.3600 €4.19 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €31.50 €45.00 €58.50 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (€45.00) versus Economic Profit (€0.3600). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) €17.1B
Revenue growth (YoY) +9.5%
Net margin 3.2%
Return on equity 5.7%
Free cash flow −€587M FY2025
P/E ratio 29.8
More key figures
Operating margin 34.9%
EPS (TTM) €2.16
Dividend yield 4.9%
EPS growth (YoY) -59.4%
Net debt €7.7B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 43/100

Of which business quality 26 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 77

Profitability 21
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 49
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 6
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 6
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 47
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 99
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 59
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 81
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 50
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

ASR Nederland N.V. provides insurance, pensions, and mortgages products and services for consumers, businesses, and employers in the Netherlands. The company operates through five segments: Non-Life, Life, Asset Management, Distribution and Services, and Holding and Other.

Full company description

ASR Nederland N.V. provides insurance, pensions, and mortgages products and services for consumers, businesses, and employers in the Netherlands. The company operates through five segments: Non-Life, Life, Asset Management, Distribution and Services, and Holding and Other. It offers individual and group disability, as well as sickness leave; property and casualty, including motor, fire, liability, legal aid, travel and recreation, pet, and transport insurance; and health insurance, such as basic and supplementary health insurance. The company also provides pension products; Individual term life insurance; and funeral capital insurance. In addition, it is involved in the provision of asset management services, including investment property management, as well as managing of corporate bonds, government bonds, and equities; investment solutions; manages non-listed sector funds, which invest in retail and residential properties, offices, real estate on science parks, agricultural land, and renewable energy sources comprising wind, solar farms, and energy storage; and develops investment strategies. Further, the company operates in the residential mortgage markets under a.s.r. and Aegon brands; and specialised products for first-time buyers, customers who want to finance sustainable home modifications and senior citizens. Additionally, it engages in the provision of distribution and services; involved in the group-related activities, real estate development business, and activities relating to private investments for customers; offers expert guidance, software and advice on creating healthy and safe working environments services under the ArboNed, Mensely, HumanCapitalCare, Focus, and IT&Care brands; and health and reintegration services. The company was formerly known as Fortis Verzekeringen Nederland N.V. and changed its name to ASR Nederland N.V. in October 2008. The company was founded in 1720 and is based in Utrecht, the Netherlands.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

ASR Nederland N.V reported revenue of €19.7B in FY2025 versus €9.8B in FY2021, a compound +19.0%/yr. Reported net income was €582M in FY2025, compounding −10.2%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 43/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€19.7B
Latest YoY
−4.4%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+21.3%
Avg. growth/yr (20Y)
+4.5%
Revenue +19.0%/yr
FY21 €9.8B
FY22 −€10.5B
FY23 €12.8B
FY24 €20.6B
FY25 €19.7B
Net income −10.2%/yr
FY21 €894M
FY22 −€1.8B
FY23 €1.0B
FY24 €883M
FY25 €582M

ASRNL screens 48% overvalued. Compare with Berkshire Hathaway Inc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ASR Nederland N.V Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ASRNL

Peer Group

Insurance - Diversified · 84 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 44 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −48% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 6% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 35% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 10% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.9% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 1.04× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Diversified median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 32.1× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 1.92× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.97× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 3.5× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 43
FUTURE 48 · sector 31
PAST 23 · sector 49
HEALTH 48 · sector 89
DIVIDEND 98 · sector 45

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 20/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Insurance - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Berkshire Hathaway Inc BRKB 8,562 MXN 10,844 MXN +27%
Allianz SE ALV €421.00 €369.31 -12%
Zurich Insurance Group ZURN CHF 624.40 CHF 619.80 -1%
AXA SA AXAN 888.28 MXN 1,249 MXN +41%
Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A G €42.90 €12.18 -72%
Sun Life Financial Inc SLF C$114.20 C$87.83 -23%
BB Seguridade Participações S.A BBSE3 R$40.71 R$60.39 +48%
Tryg A/S TRYG kr 154.00 kr 116.45 -24%
PT Sinar Mas Multiartha Tbk SMMA 20,625 IDR 4,176 IDR -80%
Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A CXSE3 R$21.77 R$18.60 -15%

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Frequently asked questions

Is ASR Nederland N.V (ASRNL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €36.99 versus a price of €70.84, about −48% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ASRNL?
Our model-based fair value for ASR Nederland N.V is €36.99 (as of Jul 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is €70.84.
What is the quality score of ASRNL?
ASR Nederland N.V has a Quality Score of 43/100. It combines two groups: business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength) and market factors (price momentum, distance to the 52-week high, volatility). Both subtotals are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of ASR Nederland N.V (ASRNL)?
ASR Nederland N.V reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €17.1B (latest available figure, as of Jul 18, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of ASRNL?
The net profit margin of ASR Nederland N.V is about 3.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 3.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does ASR Nederland N.V pay a dividend?
ASR Nederland N.V currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.28% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 18, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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