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ASR Nederland NV (ASRNL) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of ASR Nederland NV stock €39.07, price €78.36, that is 50.1% below the price, quality 28 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services NL · ISIN NL0011872643

AN ASR Nederland NV logo Broad data Nov 6, 2026

ASR Nederland NV

ASRNL · AS
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 50% below what the stock costs today.

4.5% dividend yield · Sustainable
Positive coverage
Broad data
Revenue last quarter +18% vs. a year ago.
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +21.3 %/yr in EUR)
Thin margins · 6.6% net margin (TTM)
Moderate moat 54/100 · thin data
Fair value €39.07 · Strongly overvalued (−50.1%)
Quality 28/100
Trails peers (5/13)

Risks from the AI analysis

🚩AI lag could erode market position🚩AI agents could redirect distribution🚩AI Act and rules could raise costs
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€78.36 €25.56 Fair Value €39.07 Sep 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €25.56 – €78.36 · fair‑value band €29.30 – €48.84 · the €78.36 price screens above the €39.07 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.

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Company profile

ASR Nederland N.V. provides insurance, pensions, and mortgages products and services for consumers, businesses, and employers in the Netherlands. The company operates through five segments: Non-Life, Life, Asset Management, Distribution and Services, and Holding and Other.

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It offers individual and group disability, as well as sickness leave; property and casualty, including motor, fire, liability, legal aid, travel and recreation, pet, and transport insurance; and health insurance, such as basic and supplementary health insurance.

The company also provides pension products; Individual term life insurance; and funeral capital insurance.

In addition, it is involved in the provision of asset management services, including investment property management, as well as managing of corporate bonds, government bonds, and equities; investment solutions; manages non-listed sector funds, which invest in retail and residential properties, offices, real estate on science parks, agricultural land, and renewable energy sources comprising wind, solar farms, and energy storage; and develops investment strategies.

Further, the company operates in the residential mortgage markets under a.s.r. and Aegon brands; and specialised products for first-time buyers, customers who want to finance sustainable home modifications and senior citizens.

Additionally, it engages in the provision of distribution and services; involved in the group-related activities, real estate development business, and activities relating to private investments for customers; offers expert guidance, software and advice on creating healthy and safe working environments services under the ArboNed, Mensely, HumanCapitalCare, Focus, and IT&Care brands; and health and reintegration services.

The company was formerly known as Fortis Verzekeringen Nederland N.V. and changed its name to ASR Nederland N.V. in October 2008. The company was founded in 1720 and is based in Utrecht, the Netherlands.

Stock analysis

ASR Nederland NV (ASRNL) currently trades at €78.36, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €39.07, 50% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of €50.46 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the €78.36 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €25.93, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: €29.30 (bear) to €48.84 (bull), the price of €78.36 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 28/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

ASR Nederland NV reported revenue of €19.7B in FY2025 versus €9.8B in FY2021, a compound +19.0%/yr. Reported net income was €582M in FY2025, compounding −10.2%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap €17.4B Large · P/E ratio 15.3 · P/S ratio 0.94 · EPS (TTM) €5.12 · Dividend yield 4.5% · Net margin 6.6% · Return on equity 12.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.4%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 54 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades at its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −33% fair-value upside, at −50%, ASRNL screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €29.30 Fair Value €39.07 Bull €48.84
Price €78.36 · Downside -50.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€1.35 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income €35.91 €38.27 €42.09 76
Gordon GGM €33.74 €54.38 €79.40 68
DDM Multi-Stage €33.74 €50.46 €71.58 66
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €33.74 €54.38 €79.40 68
DDM Multi-Stage €33.74 €50.46 €71.58 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple €28.15 €37.54 €46.92 63
P/B Multiple €30.45 €40.60 €50.75 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €19.35 €25.93 €38.70 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income €35.91 €38.27 €42.09 76

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 28/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 21
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 49
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 6
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 6
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 47
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 99
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 68
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 90
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 35
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 48/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.6% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.5%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−8.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−13.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−13.0% vs −3.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 4%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

ASRNL screens overvalued: fair value 50% below the price. Compare with Allianz SE →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (30 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Note from the team Oct 11, 2026
AI conclusion: The business gains from rapid expansion of fee income in asset management as a second earnings stream, yet stays limited by ongoing pressures on insurance margins and negative cash flows.
Main risk: If ASR fails to adopt AI developments in a timely manner across customer service, claims and risk management, more innovative competitors could capture market share and reduce the company's relevance.
Bull case: By scaling AI tools effectively in claims handling, underwriting and customer processes while ensuring compliance, ASR could improve operational efficiency and strengthen its competitive position in the Dutch market.
Bear case: If ASR lags in AI adoption or faces heavy compliance burdens from new rules, competitors or AI-driven distribution models could erode its market share and make traditional insurance operations less competitive.
ASR has been expanding fee income from asset management and services at a fast clip, creating a second earnings stream next to its core insurance activities. Recent integrations add scale yet bring execution risks into focus. Our models see the stock as overvalued, so will the fee growth lift overall returns enough to overcome typical insurance margin pressures or will the traditional book remain the bottleneck?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Diversified · 72 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 28 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −50.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 12.2% · Below median
Return on assets 0.4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) 6.6% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) 42.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 17.7% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months) 4.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.04× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Diversified median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 15.3× · Pricier than median
P/B 2.02× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 0.94× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 3.2× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)89 · sector 36
PAST (return on equity)49 · sector 54
HEALTH (low debt)48 · sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)90 · sector 72

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Insurance - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Arch Capital Group ACGL $110.57 $133.22 +20% vs ASRNL
American International Group AIG $80.93 $72.63 −10% vs ASRNL
The Hartford Insurance Group HIG $137.09 $115.03 −16% vs ASRNL
AXA SA CS €45.71 €35.31 −23% vs ASRNL
Talanx AG TLX €134.70 €89.76 −33% vs ASRNL
Sun Life Financial Inc SLF $73.48 $40.74 −45% vs ASRNL
Zurich Insurance Group ZURN CHF 643.80 CHF 320.92 −50% vs ASRNL
Allianz SE ALV €465.10 €229.28 −51% vs ASRNL
Swiss Life Holding SLHN CHF 988.20 CHF 413.28 −58% vs ASRNL
Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A G €44.56 €15.32 −66% vs ASRNL

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ASR Nederland NV: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ASR Nederland NV Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ASRNL

Frequently asked questions

Is ASR Nederland NV (ASRNL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €39.07 versus a price of €78.36, about 50% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ASRNL?
Our model-based fair value for ASR Nederland NV is €39.07 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €78.36.
What is the quality score of ASRNL?
ASR Nederland NV has a Quality Score of 28/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ASR Nederland NV (ASRNL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €39.07 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario €29.30, optimistic scenario €48.84. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ASR Nederland NV stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €39.07, about 50% lower versus a price of €78.36 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €29.30, optimistic scenario €48.84. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ASR Nederland NV (ASRNL)?
ASR Nederland NV reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €18.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does ASR Nederland NV pay a dividend?
ASR Nederland NV currently shows a dividend yield of 4.50% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of ASR Nederland NV (ASRNL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ASR Nederland NV it is €39.07 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of €78.36. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ASR Nederland NV stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, ASRNL trades above its calculated fair value: price €78.36, fair value €39.07, a gap of about −50% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ASRNL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€78.36); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€39.07). For ASR Nederland NV the two are €39.29 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ASR Nederland NV worth?
The market values ASR Nederland NV at about €17.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is €78.36; our models calculate a fair value of €39.07 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ASRNL?
Our models span a range for ASR Nederland NV: cautious scenario €29.30, base €39.07, optimistic €48.84 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price €78.36). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ASRNL?
ASR Nederland NV trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.3 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €39.07 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 8.7. Other multiples: P/B 2.0, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 3.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of ASR Nederland NV (ASRNL)?
Balance-sheet figures for ASR Nederland NV (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 12.2%, debt of 1.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 28/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ASRNL from its 52-week high?
ASR Nederland NV trades at €78.36, at its 52-week high of €78.36 and 46% above the low of €53.78 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €39.07 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ASR Nederland NV?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Allianz SE, Zurich Insurance Group, AXA SA, Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ASR Nederland NV stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price €78.36, calculated fair value €39.07 (−50%), Quality Score 28/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ASRNL calculated?
We run ASR Nederland NV through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €39.07, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. ASR Nederland NV itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ASR Nederland NV (ASRNL)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was €78.36. Our model-based fair value is €39.07, about 50% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ASR Nederland NV right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€48.84). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (28/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of ASR Nederland NV (ASRNL) come from?
Earnings per share at ASR Nederland NV grew +1.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.6 %, EBIT margin +7.1 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −11.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of ASR Nederland NV

How large is the market capitalisation of ASR Nederland NV (ASRNL)?
The market capitalisation of ASR Nederland NV is €17.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ASR Nederland NV (ASRNL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ASR Nederland NV is 0.94 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ASR Nederland NV (ASRNL)?
Earnings per share at ASR Nederland NV are €5.12 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of ASR Nederland NV (ASRNL)?
The dividend yield of ASR Nederland NV is 4.5% (payout 68.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of ASR Nederland NV (ASRNL)?
The net margin of ASR Nederland NV is 6.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ASR Nederland NV (ASRNL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ASR Nederland NV is 12.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ASR Nederland NV (ASRNL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ASR Nederland NV is 1.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ASR Nederland NV (ASRNL)?
The operating margin of ASR Nederland NV is 42.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ASR Nederland NV (ASRNL)?
Revenue at ASR Nederland NV is growing +17.7% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ASR Nederland NV (ASRNL)?
Earnings per share at ASR Nederland NV are growing +648% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does ASR Nederland NV (ASRNL) generate?
The free cash flow of ASR Nederland NV is −€587M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does ASR Nederland NV (ASRNL) carry?
The net debt of ASR Nederland NV is €7.7B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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