ASR Nederland N.V (ASRNL) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · NL · Market cap €14.3B
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Share price +6.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 48% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€46.23). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €23.97 – €70.88 · fair‑value band €27.74 – €46.23 · the €70.84 price screens above the €36.99 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
ASR Nederland N.V (ASRNL) currently trades at €70.84, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €36.99, implying the stock looks roughly 47.8% overvalued today. We read business quality at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, ASR Nederland N.V generated revenue of €17.1B at a net margin of 3.2%. Revenue grew 9.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.7%. Net debt stands at €7.7B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €27.74 (bear case) to €46.23 (bull case); at €70.84, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -12% fair-value upside, at -48%, ASRNL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (€45.00) versus Economic Profit (€0.3600). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 26 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 77
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
ASR Nederland N.V. provides insurance, pensions, and mortgages products and services for consumers, businesses, and employers in the Netherlands. The company operates through five segments: Non-Life, Life, Asset Management, Distribution and Services, and Holding and Other.
Full company description
ASR Nederland N.V. provides insurance, pensions, and mortgages products and services for consumers, businesses, and employers in the Netherlands. The company operates through five segments: Non-Life, Life, Asset Management, Distribution and Services, and Holding and Other. It offers individual and group disability, as well as sickness leave; property and casualty, including motor, fire, liability, legal aid, travel and recreation, pet, and transport insurance; and health insurance, such as basic and supplementary health insurance. The company also provides pension products; Individual term life insurance; and funeral capital insurance. In addition, it is involved in the provision of asset management services, including investment property management, as well as managing of corporate bonds, government bonds, and equities; investment solutions; manages non-listed sector funds, which invest in retail and residential properties, offices, real estate on science parks, agricultural land, and renewable energy sources comprising wind, solar farms, and energy storage; and develops investment strategies. Further, the company operates in the residential mortgage markets under a.s.r. and Aegon brands; and specialised products for first-time buyers, customers who want to finance sustainable home modifications and senior citizens. Additionally, it engages in the provision of distribution and services; involved in the group-related activities, real estate development business, and activities relating to private investments for customers; offers expert guidance, software and advice on creating healthy and safe working environments services under the ArboNed, Mensely, HumanCapitalCare, Focus, and IT&Care brands; and health and reintegration services. The company was formerly known as Fortis Verzekeringen Nederland N.V. and changed its name to ASR Nederland N.V. in October 2008. The company was founded in 1720 and is based in Utrecht, the Netherlands.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
ASR Nederland N.V reported revenue of €19.7B in FY2025 versus €9.8B in FY2021, a compound +19.0%/yr. Reported net income was €582M in FY2025, compounding −10.2%/yr from FY2021.
ASRNL screens 48% overvalued. Compare with Berkshire Hathaway Inc →
Peer Group
Insurance - Diversified · 84 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 20/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Berkshire Hathaway Inc BRKB | 8,562 MXN | 10,844 MXN | +27% |
| Allianz SE ALV | €421.00 | €369.31 | -12% |
| Zurich Insurance Group ZURN | CHF 624.40 | CHF 619.80 | -1% |
| AXA SA AXAN | 888.28 MXN | 1,249 MXN | +41% |
| Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A G | €42.90 | €12.18 | -72% |
| Sun Life Financial Inc SLF | C$114.20 | C$87.83 | -23% |
| BB Seguridade Participações S.A BBSE3 | R$40.71 | R$60.39 | +48% |
| Tryg A/S TRYG | kr 154.00 | kr 116.45 | -24% |
| PT Sinar Mas Multiartha Tbk SMMA | 20,625 IDR | 4,176 IDR | -80% |
| Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A CXSE3 | R$21.77 | R$18.60 | -15% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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