ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) (ASSA-B) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 15, 2026: fair value of ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) SEK 383, price SEK 356, upside +7.6%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 189.30 – kr 391.10 · fair‑value band kr 264.22 – kr 502.24 · the kr 356.30 price screens below the kr 383.24 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 13, 2026.
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ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) provides door opening and access products for the institutional, commercial, and residential markets.
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It operates through Europe, the Middle East, India, and Africa (EMEIA); North and South America (Americas); Asia and Oceania (Asia Pacific); Global Technologies; and Entrance Systems divisions.
The company offers digital access solutions, such as electronic access control ecosystem, wireless and keyed access solutions, and standalone access and electrochemical solutions; swing, revolving, and sliding doors; hinges, lever handles, mortise lockcases, euro profile cylinders, panic exit devices, door closers, floor springs, pull handles, and general hardware; wooden and steel doors; and security entrance control and loading dock equipment.
It also provides repair and maintenance, and digital services; building specification; and educational program and training services. In addition, the company's technology platforms for hi-tech door and entrance environments include Aperio, CLIQ, Hi-O, Incedo, and Seos.
Further, it provides Openings Studio, a building information modeling software that integrates with design software to create and visualize openings for door, frame, and hardware specifications.
The company offers its products under the ASSA ABLOY, Yale, ABLOY, Vachette, TESA, Kwikset, Baldwin, Weiser, Sargent, Curries, Norton Rixson, Papaiz, Odis, Philips, PanPan, Gateman, Lockwood, and HID brands. It sells its products through distributors and wholesalers.
The company serves aviation, education, distribution and logistics, entertainment and public facilities, finance and banking, government and military, healthcare, hospitality, industry and manufacturing, mining, office and enterprise, residential, retail, shipyards, and transportation, hospitality, heavy, construction, critical infrastructure, key and asset management, marine, self-storage, and senior care industries.
ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) was founded in 1881 and is based in Stockholm, Sweden.
Stock analysis
ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) (ASSA-B) currently trades at kr 356.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 383.24, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 7.0%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of kr 326.67 per share, and 4 of the 24 models we run sit above the kr 356.30 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 64.63, and 20 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 264.22 (bear) to kr 502.24 (bull), the price of kr 356.30 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) reported revenue of 152B SEK in FY2025 versus 95.0B SEK in FY2021, a compound +12.5%/yr. Reported net income was 14.7B SEK in FY2025, compounding +7.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 396B SEK (≈ $39.7B) · P/E ratio 24.2 · P/S ratio 2.33 · EPS (TTM) kr 14.74 · Dividend yield 1.8% · Net margin 9.6% · Return on equity 15.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 67 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at 8%, ASSA-B screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bearkr 264.22Fair Value kr 383.24Bullkr 502.24
Price kr 356.30 · Upside +7.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 6.58 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.4% a year
Revenue growth 29 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+9.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.8.0% vs 8.3%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 15%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.9% a year for the price and +4.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (92 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: The business maintains a moderate moat through scale and switching costs in security while limited signals elsewhere and sparse execution details remain its main weaknesses.
Main risk: Continued pace of bolt-on acquisitions risks diluting focus on organic innovation in access solutions and would hit development of keyless and IP lock integrations.
ASSA ABLOY continues its series of bolt-on acquisitions, most recently adding PACLOCK to strengthen customized padlock and hardware offerings in the US residential segment with local manufacturing. This builds on the strategy of expanding complementary products in mature markets alongside developments like keyless and IP lock integrations. Our models see it as undervalued. Will the pace of these deals create lasting scale advantages or risk diluting focus on organic innovation in access solutions?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Security & Protection Services · 109 stocks
P/B3.84× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ASSA-B
Frequently asked questions
Is ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) (ASSA-B) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 383.24 versus a price of kr 356.30, about +8% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of ASSA-B?
Our model-based fair value for ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) is kr 383.24 (as of Oct 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 356.30.
What is the quality score of ASSA-B?
ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) (ASSA-B)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 383.24 (as of Oct 13, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 264.22, optimistic scenario kr 502.24. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 383.24, about +8% upside versus a price of kr 356.30 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario kr 264.22, optimistic scenario kr 502.24. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) (ASSA-B)?
ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 151B SEK (latest available figure, as of Oct 13, 2026).
Does ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) pay a dividend?
ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.80% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) (ASSA-B)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) would have to grow free cash flow by +10.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.7 % per year. As of Oct 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ASSA-B use?
Our models discount ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) at 8.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.85, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) that is +10.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) (ASSA-B) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) grew +11.7 % a year. The price currently implies +10.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) (ASSA-B) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) (+10.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) (ASSA-B)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.75 %: that much free cash flow ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) (ASSA-B)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) it is kr 383.24 per share (as of Oct 13, 2026), against a price of kr 356.30. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 13, 2026, ASSA-B trades below its calculated fair value: price kr 356.30, fair value kr 383.24, a gap of about +8% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ASSA-B?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 356.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 383.24). For ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) the two are kr 26.94 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) worth?
The market values ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) at about 396B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Oct 13, 2026). Per share that is kr 356.30; our models calculate a fair value of kr 383.24 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ASSA-B?
Our models span a range for ASSA ABLOY AB (publ): cautious scenario kr 264.22, base kr 383.24, optimistic kr 502.24 per share (as of Oct 13, 2026, price kr 356.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ASSA-B?
ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.2 (as of Oct 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 383.24 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 24.4. Other multiples: PEG 1.5, P/B 3.8, P/S 2.6, EV/EBITDA 15.0.
What is the PEG ratio of ASSA-B?
The PEG ratio of ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) is 1.54 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 13, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) (ASSA-B)?
Balance-sheet figures for ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) (as of Oct 13, 2026): return on equity 15.6%, debt of 0.46 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ASSA-B from its 52-week high?
ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) trades at kr 356.30, about 9% below its 52-week high of kr 391.10 and 12% above the low of kr 318.16 (as of Oct 15, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 383.24 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ASSA ABLOY AB (publ)?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Allegion plc, Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co, MSA Safety Incorporated, ADT Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 13, 2026: price kr 356.30, calculated fair value kr 383.24 (+8%), Quality Score 64/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ASSA-B calculated?
We run ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 383.24, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) currently trades 7 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) (ASSA-B)?
The closing price on Oct 15, 2026 was kr 356.30. Our model-based fair value is kr 383.24, about +8% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (kr 264.22 to kr 502.24) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) (ASSA-B) come from?
Earnings per share at ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) grew +8.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.5 %, EBIT margin +0.3 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of ASSA ABLOY AB (publ)
How large is the market capitalisation of ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) (ASSA-B)?
The market capitalisation of ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) is 396B SEK (≈ $39.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) (ASSA-B)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) is 2.33 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) (ASSA-B)?
Earnings per share at ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) are kr 14.74 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 24.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) (ASSA-B)?
The dividend yield of ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) is 1.8% (payout 43.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) (ASSA-B)?
The net margin of ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) is 9.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) (ASSA-B)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) is 15.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) (ASSA-B)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) is 11.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) (ASSA-B)?
The operating margin of ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) is 16.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) (ASSA-B)?
Revenue at ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) is growing +3.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) (ASSA-B)?
Earnings per share at ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) are growing +15.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) (ASSA-B) carry?
The net debt of ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) is 68.9B SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 13, 2026