ASSA ABLOY AB (ASSA-B) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · SE · Market cap 387B SEK (≈ $40.4B) · ISIN SE0007100581
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 17 days ago
Share price +1.5% over the past month.
A solid business, but trading 32% above our fair value.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (kr 180.23 to kr 353.80) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 189.30 – kr 391.10 · fair‑value band kr 180.23 – kr 353.80 · the kr 357.20 price screens above the kr 269.97 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
ASSA ABLOY AB (ASSA-B) currently trades at kr 357.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 269.97, implying the stock looks roughly 24.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, ASSA ABLOY AB generated revenue of 150B SEK at a net margin of 10.5%. Revenue declined 5.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.1%. Net debt stands at 68.9B SEK. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from kr 180.23 (bear case) to kr 353.80 (bull case); at kr 357.20, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 7% fair-value upside, at -24%, ASSA-B screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly 5.21 SEK per share, which is 1.9 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (kr 322.66) versus Asset-Based (kr 64.63). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) provides door opening and access products for the institutional, commercial, and residential markets. It operates through Europe, the Middle East, India, and Africa (EMEIA); North and South America (Americas); Asia and Oceania (Asia Pacific); Global Technologies; and Entrance Systems divisions.
Full company description
ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) provides door opening and access products for the institutional, commercial, and residential markets. It operates through Europe, the Middle East, India, and Africa (EMEIA); North and South America (Americas); Asia and Oceania (Asia Pacific); Global Technologies; and Entrance Systems divisions. The company offers digital access solutions, such as electronic access control ecosystem, wireless and keyed access solutions, and standalone access and electrochemical solutions; swing, revolving, and sliding doors; hinges, lever handles, mortise lockcases, euro profile cylinders, panic exit devices, door closers, floor springs, pull handles, and general hardware; wooden and steel doors; and security entrance control and loading dock equipment. It also provides repair and maintenance, and digital services; building specification; and educational program and training services. In addition, the company's technology platforms for hi-tech door and entrance environments include Aperio, CLIQ, Hi-O, Incedo, and Seos. Further, it provides Openings Studio, a building information modeling software that integrates with design software to create and visualize openings for door, frame, and hardware specifications. The company offers its products under the ASSA ABLOY, Yale, ABLOY, Vachette, TESA, Kwikset, Baldwin, Weiser, Sargent, Curries, Norton Rixson, Papaiz, Odis, Philips, PanPan, Gateman, Lockwood, and HID brands. It sells its products through distributors and wholesalers. The company serves aviation, education, distribution and logistics, entertainment and public facilities, finance and banking, government and military, healthcare, hospitality, industry and manufacturing, mining, office and enterprise, residential, retail, shipyards, and transportation, hospitality, heavy, construction, critical infrastructure, key and asset management, marine, self-storage, and senior care industries. ASSA ABLOY AB (publ) was founded in 1881 and is based in Stockholm, Sweden.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
ASSA ABLOY AB reported revenue of kr 152B in FY2025 versus kr 95.0B in FY2021, a compound +12.5%/yr. Reported net income was kr 14.7B in FY2025, compounding +7.8%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +9.5 % · buybacks/dilution +0.0 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
ASSA-B screens 32% overvalued. Compare with Verisure plc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- ASSA ABLOY to acquire Gunnebo Entrance Control
- ASSA ABLOY acquires Classic Brass in the US
- ASSA ABLOY: Quarterly Report Q2 2026
- ASSA ABLOY acquires Sentinel Dock & Door in Canada
Peer Group
Security & Protection Services · 113 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Security & Protection Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Security & Protection Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Verisure plc VSURE | €9.33 | €12.40 | +33% |
| Allegion plc ALLE | $166.11 | $127.80 | -23% |
| Securitas AB SECUB | kr 147.90 | kr 186.34 | +26% |
| Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co 002236 | ¥16.46 | ¥31.47 | +91% |
| MSA Safety Incorporated MSA | $190.34 | $116.42 | -39% |
| ADT Inc ADT | $7.44 | $16.68 | +124% |
| The Brink's Company BCO | $113.12 | $121.18 | +7% |
| Brady Corporation BRC | $93.25 | $72.32 | -22% |
| The GEO Group GEO | $32.77 | $25.50 | -22% |
| Loomis AB LOOMIS | kr 533.00 | kr 496.43 | -7% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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