ADT Inc (ADT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of ADT Inc $9.17, price $6.54, upside +40.3%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.68 – $10.00 · fair‑value band $6.07 – $13.28 · the $6.54 price screens below the $9.17 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 19, 2026.
ADT Inc. provides security, interactive, and smart home solutions in the United States.
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ADT Inc. provides security, interactive, and smart home solutions in the United States. The company offers burglar and life safety alarms, smart security cameras, smart home automation systems, and video surveillance systems to detect intrusion; control access; sense movement, smoke, fire, carbon monoxide, leaks, temperature, and other environmental conditions and hazards; and address personal medical emergencies, such as injuries or unanticipated falls. It also provides routine maintenance and installation services for upgraded or additional equipment; and personal emergency response system products and services to sustain independent living, detect when a fall occurs, and provide protection while on the go with geolocation capability. In addition, the company offers ADT+ app, an interactive technology platform; Trusted Neighbor, which allows customers to grant access to their homes through homeowner-authorized credentials and the ADT+ app; automation and smart home solutions, which allow for the remote monitoring and managing of spaces through smartphone applications, customized web portals, and touchscreen panels; and professionally installed and DIY security and smart home solutions. Further, it operates monitoring centers that provide professional and outsourced monitoring services; and field and call centers. The company sells its products under the ADT, ADT Pulse, and ADT+ brands. It serves the residential and small business security and automation markets comprising owners and renters of single-family homes, apartments, and small businesses owners through customer referrals, door-to-door activities, lead generation partners, retail and e-commerce channels, network of field sales and service offices, third-party independent dealers, and authorized dealers. The company was formerly known as Prime Security Services Parent, Inc. and changed its name to ADT Inc. in September 2017. ADT Inc. was founded in 1874 and is headquartered in Boca Raton, Florida.
Stock analysis
ADT Inc (ADT) currently trades at $6.54, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.17, implying the stock looks roughly 28.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $19.32 per share, and 20 of the 25 models we run sit above the $6.54 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $3.73, and 5 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $6.07 (bear) to $13.28 (bull), the price of $6.54 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
ADT Inc reported revenue of $5.1B in FY2025 versus $5.3B in FY2021, a compound −0.9%/yr. Reported net income was $596M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $5.9B · P/E ratio 8.9 · P/S ratio 1.04 · EPS (TTM) $0.7900 · Dividend yield 3.4% · Net margin 11.6% · Return on equity 16.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at 40%, ADT screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $6.07Fair Value $9.17Bull $13.28
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3935 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +25.0% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +40.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+37.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.4%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 26%
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 60% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−2.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −4.7% a year for the price and −0.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (88 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Security & Protection Services · 110 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ADT Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ADT
Frequently asked questions
Is ADT Inc (ADT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 19, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $9.17 versus a price of $6.54, about +40% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ADT?
Our model-based fair value for ADT Inc is $9.17 (as of Sep 19, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $6.54.
What is the quality score of ADT?
ADT Inc has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ADT Inc (ADT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $9.17 (as of Sep 19, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $6.07, optimistic scenario $13.28. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ADT Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $9.17, about +40% upside versus a price of $6.54 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $6.07, optimistic scenario $13.28. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ADT Inc (ADT)?
ADT Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 19, 2026).
Does ADT Inc pay a dividend?
ADT Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.36% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 19, 2026).
What growth is priced into ADT Inc (ADT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ADT Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -2.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.7 % per year. As of Sep 19, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ADT use?
Our models discount ADT Inc at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.02, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For ADT Inc that is -2.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has ADT Inc (ADT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at ADT Inc grew -0.7 % a year. The price currently implies -2.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of ADT Inc (ADT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into ADT Inc (-2.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of ADT Inc (ADT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 22.41 %: that much free cash flow ADT Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of ADT Inc (ADT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ADT Inc it is $9.17 per share (as of Sep 19, 2026), against a price of $6.54. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ADT Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 19, 2026, ADT trades below its calculated fair value: price $6.54, fair value $9.17, a gap of about +40% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ADT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($6.54); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($9.17). For ADT Inc the two are $2.63 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ADT Inc worth?
The market values ADT Inc at about $5.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 19, 2026). Per share that is $6.54; our models calculate a fair value of $9.17 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ADT?
Our models span a range for ADT Inc: cautious scenario $6.07, base $9.17, optimistic $13.28 per share (as of Sep 19, 2026, price $6.54). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ADT?
ADT Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.9 (as of Sep 19, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $9.17 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.4, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 4.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of ADT Inc (ADT)?
Balance-sheet figures for ADT Inc (as of Sep 19, 2026): return on equity 16.9%, debt of 1.95 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ADT from its 52-week high?
ADT Inc trades at $6.54, about 26% below its 52-week high of $8.80 and 6% above the low of $6.20 (as of Sep 19, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $9.17 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ADT Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Verisure plc, Allegion plc, Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co, MSA Safety Incorporated, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ADT Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 19, 2026: price $6.54, calculated fair value $9.17 (+40%), Quality Score 62/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ADT calculated?
We run ADT Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $9.17, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.0 % above its aggregate fair value. ADT Inc currently trades 40 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ADT Inc (ADT)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was $6.54. Our model-based fair value is $9.17, about +40% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ADT Inc right now?
Solid quality (62/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($6.07 to $13.28) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of ADT Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of ADT Inc (ADT)?
The market capitalisation of ADT Inc is $5.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ADT Inc (ADT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ADT Inc is 1.04 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ADT Inc (ADT)?
Earnings per share at ADT Inc are $0.7900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of ADT Inc (ADT)?
The dividend yield of ADT Inc is 3.4% (payout 27.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of ADT Inc (ADT)?
The net margin of ADT Inc is 11.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ADT Inc (ADT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ADT Inc is 16.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ADT Inc (ADT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ADT Inc is 5.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ADT Inc (ADT)?
The operating margin of ADT Inc is 25.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ADT Inc (ADT)?
Revenue at ADT Inc is growing +0.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ADT Inc (ADT)?
Earnings per share at ADT Inc are growing +26.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does ADT Inc (ADT) carry?
The net debt of ADT Inc is $7.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 19, 2026