ADT Inc (ADT) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $5.2B
ADT Inc
ADT · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from $16.24 to $9.41 (−42.1%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +13.5% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 23% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid quality (64/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range ($6.07 to $13.28) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.68 – $10.25 · fair‑value band $6.07 – $13.28 · the $7.64 price screens below the $9.41 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
ADT Inc (ADT) currently trades at $7.64, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.41, implying the stock looks roughly 23.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, ADT Inc generated revenue of $5.1B at a net margin of 12.1%. Revenue grew 0.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.9%. Net debt stands at $7.6B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $6.07 (bear case) to $13.28 (bull case); at $7.64, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at 23%, ADT screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($19.32) versus Asset-Based ($3.73). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
ADT Inc. provides security, interactive, and smart home solutions in the United States. The company offers burglar and life safety alarms, smart security cameras, smart home automation systems, and video surveillance systems to detect intrusion; control access; sense movement, smoke, fire, carbon monoxide, leaks, temperature, and other environmental …
Full company description
ADT Inc. provides security, interactive, and smart home solutions in the United States. The company offers burglar and life safety alarms, smart security cameras, smart home automation systems, and video surveillance systems to detect intrusion; control access; sense movement, smoke, fire, carbon monoxide, leaks, temperature, and other environmental conditions and hazards; and address personal medical emergencies, such as injuries or unanticipated falls. It also provides routine maintenance and installation services for upgraded or additional equipment; and personal emergency response system products and services to sustain independent living, detect when a fall occurs, and provide protection while on the go with geolocation capability. In addition, the company offers ADT+ app, an interactive technology platform; Trusted Neighbor, which allows customers to grant access to their homes through homeowner-authorized credentials and the ADT+ app; automation and smart home solutions, which allow for the remote monitoring and managing of spaces through smartphone applications, customized web portals, and touchscreen panels; and professionally installed and DIY security and smart home solutions. Further, it operates monitoring centers that provide professional and outsourced monitoring services; and field and call centers. The company sells its products under the ADT, ADT Pulse, and ADT+ brands. It serves the residential and small business security and automation markets comprising owners and renters of single-family homes, apartments, and small businesses owners through customer referrals, door-to-door activities, lead generation partners, retail and e-commerce channels, network of field sales and service offices, third-party independent dealers, and authorized dealers. The company was formerly known as Prime Security Services Parent, Inc. and changed its name to ADT Inc. in September 2017. ADT Inc. was founded in 1874 and is headquartered in Boca Raton, Florida.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
ADT Inc reported revenue of $5.1B in FY2025 versus $5.3B in FY2021, a compound −0.9%/yr. Reported net income was $596M in FY2025.
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Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- ADT Helps Bring Communities Together for National Night Out 2026
- ADT Inc (ADT) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Free Cash Flow Surge and AI Gains ...
- ADT (NYSE:ADT) Beats Q2 CY2026 Sales Expectations
- ADT (ADT) Tops Q2 Earnings and Revenue Estimates
Peer Group
Security & Protection Services · 113 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Security & Protection Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 66/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Security & Protection Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASSA ABLOY AB ASSAB | kr 348.40 | kr 269.97 | -23% |
| Verisure plc VSURE | €10.26 | €12.40 | +21% |
| Allegion plc ALLE | $137.24 | $127.80 | -7% |
| Securitas AB SECUB | kr 162.10 | kr 186.34 | +15% |
| Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co 002236 | ¥16.57 | ¥23.58 | +42% |
| MSA Safety Incorporated MSA | $169.00 | $118.51 | -30% |
| The Brink's Company BCO | $104.24 | $101.84 | -2% |
| Brady Corporation BRC | $90.16 | $73.43 | -19% |
| The GEO Group GEO | $29.46 | $32.36 | +10% |
| Loomis AB LOOMIS | kr 491.80 | kr 496.43 | +1% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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