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Verisure plc (VSURE) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · SE · Market cap €10.7B

VP Verisure plc VSURE · ST
Price€9.95
Fair Value€12.40
Upside+24.6%
Quality35/100
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Expensive Growth
Loss-making · -3.9% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
Trails peers (4/12)
Narrow moat 29/100
Evidence: Medium Range €8.07 – €16.73 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026

From 11 valuation models · updated 27 days ago

Share price −7.0% over the past month.

Below-average quality, screening 25% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • A fairly wide model range (€8.07 to €16.73) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
  • Our model range runs from €8.07 (bear) to €16.73 (bull), base €12.40. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 35/100 (below-average quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
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Price vs Fair Value (10 months)

€16.52 €8.41 Fair Value €12.40 Oct 2025 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Jul 11, 2026.

How to read this chart

10‑month range €8.41 – €16.52 · fair‑value band €8.07 – €16.73 · the €9.95 price screens below the €12.40 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Jul 11, 2026.

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Analysis

Verisure plc (VSURE) currently trades at €9.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €12.40, implying the stock looks roughly 24.6% undervalued today. We read business quality at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Verisure plc generated revenue of €3.8B at a net margin of -3.9%. Revenue grew 10.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -2.0%. Net debt stands at €5.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €8.07 (bear case) to €16.73 (bull case); at €9.95, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at 25%, VSURE screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF €2.04 €6.46 80
Rev-Margin DCF €0.2800 €2.65 74
EV/EBITDA €8.33 €12.66 €16.98 54
All 11 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €2.17 €6.88 38
5Y Revenue Exit €0.2900 €2.80 39
5Y EBITDA Exit €4.57 €12.62 €22.58 41
10Y Revenue Exit €0.4800 €3.19 36
10Y EBITDA Exit €2.72 €9.33 €19.19 37
Multiples
EV/EBIT €0.5500 €1.85 53
EV/EBITDA €8.33 €12.66 €16.98 54
EV/Revenue €0.2300 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €4.24 €5.68 €8.48 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €2.04 €6.46 80
Rev-Margin DCF €0.2800 €2.65 74

Widest divergence: Asset-Based (€5.68) versus Growth DCF (€0.2800). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) €3.8B
Revenue growth (YoY) +10.8%
Net margin -3.9%
Return on equity -2.0%
Free cash flow €335M FY2025
Operating margin 12.0%
More key figures
Net debt €5.1B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 35/100

Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 20

Profitability 10
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 51
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 49
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 31
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 49
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 28
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 21
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 11
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 86
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Verisure plc provides security services for families and small businesses in Europe and Latin America. It provides professional installation, 24/7 monitoring, expert verification and response, customer care, maintenance, and technical support, as well as protecting against intrusion, burglary, fire, physical attack, theft, life-threatening emergencies, and …

Full company description

Verisure plc provides security services for families and small businesses in Europe and Latin America. It provides professional installation, 24/7 monitoring, expert verification and response, customer care, maintenance, and technical support, as well as protecting against intrusion, burglary, fire, physical attack, theft, life-threatening emergencies, and other hazards. The company was founded in 1988 and is based in London, the United Kingdom. Verisure plc operates as a subsidiary of Aegis Lux 2 Sàrl.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Verisure plc reported revenue of €3.7B in FY2025 versus €2.8B in FY2022, a compound +9.8%/yr. Reported net income was −€256M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 51/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€3.7B
Latest YoY
+9.9%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+9.8%
Revenue +9.8%/yr
FY22 €2.8B
FY23 €3.1B
FY24 €3.4B
FY25 €3.7B
Net income
FY22 −€237M
FY23 −€278M
FY24 −€185M
FY25 −€256M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Verisure plc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VSURE

Peer Group

Security & Protection Services · 114 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 35 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +25% · Top 25%
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) -4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 12% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 11% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.55× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Security & Protection Services median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.41× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 3.21× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 36.8× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 12.8× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 66 · sector 15
FUTURE 54 · sector 38
PAST 0 · sector 20
HEALTH 72 · sector 99
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 50

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Security & Protection Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
ASSA ABLOY AB ASSAB kr 348.40 kr 269.97 -23%
Allegion plc ALLE $137.24 $127.80 -7%
Securitas AB SECUB kr 162.10 kr 186.34 +15%
Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co 002236 ¥16.57 ¥23.58 +42%
MSA Safety Incorporated MSA $169.00 $118.51 -30%
ADT Inc ADT $7.06 $17.10 +142%
The Brink's Company BCO $104.24 $101.84 -2%
Brady Corporation BRC $90.16 $73.43 -19%
The GEO Group GEO $29.46 $32.36 +10%
Loomis AB LOOMIS kr 491.80 kr 496.43 +1%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Verisure plc (VSURE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 11, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €12.40 versus a price of €9.95, about +25% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of VSURE?
Our model-based fair value for Verisure plc is €12.40 (as of Jul 11, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is €9.95.
What is the quality score of VSURE?
Verisure plc has a Quality Score of 35/100. It combines two groups: business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength) and market factors (price momentum, distance to the 52-week high, volatility). Both subtotals are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Verisure plc (VSURE)?
Verisure plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €3.8B (latest available figure, as of Jul 11, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of VSURE?
The net profit margin of Verisure plc is about -3.9%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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