Verisure Plc (VSURE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Verisure Plc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
11‑month range €8.41 – €16.52 · fair‑value band €24.48 – €72.73 · the €8.57 price screens below the €24.48 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Sep 18, 2026.
Verisure plc provides security services for families and small businesses in Europe and Latin America.
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Verisure plc provides security services for families and small businesses in Europe and Latin America. It provides professional installation, 24/7 monitoring, expert verification and response, customer care, maintenance, and technical support, as well as protecting against intrusion, burglary, fire, physical attack, theft, life-threatening emergencies, and other hazards. The company was founded in 1988 and is based in London, the United Kingdom. Verisure plc operates as a subsidiary of Aegis Lux 2 Sàrl.
Stock analysis
Verisure Plc (VSURE) currently trades at €8.57, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €24.48, implying the stock looks roughly 65.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 12 models at a data quality of 91/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: €24.48 (bear) to €72.73 (bull), the price of €8.57 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Verisure Plc reported revenue of €3.7B in FY2025 versus €2.8B in FY2022, a compound +9.8%/yr. Reported net income was −€256M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap €10.7B · P/S ratio 2.78 · Net margin −6.8% · Return on equity −2.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.4% · Operating margin 12.0% · Revenue (TTM) €3.8B · Revenue growth (YoY) +10.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at 186%, VSURE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (€0.2600 to €12.66). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear €24.48Fair Value €24.48Bull €72.73
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.51/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.8%
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
4.6% (2022) → 8.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+21.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Security & Protection Services · 111 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Verisure Plc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VSURE
Frequently asked questions
Is Verisure Plc (VSURE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €24.48 versus a price of €8.57, about +186% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of VSURE?
Our model-based fair value for Verisure Plc is €24.48 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €8.57.
What is the quality score of VSURE?
Verisure Plc has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Verisure Plc (VSURE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €24.48 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario €24.48, optimistic scenario €72.73. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Verisure Plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €24.48, about +186% upside versus a price of €8.57 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €24.48, optimistic scenario €72.73. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Verisure Plc (VSURE)?
Verisure Plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €3.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
What growth is priced into Verisure Plc (VSURE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Verisure Plc would have to grow free cash flow by +21.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +9.8 % per year. As of Sep 18, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of VSURE use?
Our models discount Verisure Plc at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Verisure Plc that is +21.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Verisure Plc (VSURE) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at Verisure Plc grew +9.8 % a year. The price currently implies +21.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Verisure Plc (VSURE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Verisure Plc (+21.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Verisure Plc (VSURE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.78 %: that much free cash flow Verisure Plc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Verisure Plc (VSURE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Verisure Plc it is €24.48 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of €8.57. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Verisure Plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, VSURE trades below its calculated fair value: price €8.57, fair value €24.48, a gap of about +186% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VSURE?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€8.57); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€24.48). For Verisure Plc the two are €15.91 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Verisure Plc worth?
The market values Verisure Plc at about €10.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is €8.57; our models calculate a fair value of €24.48 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VSURE?
Our models span a range for Verisure Plc: cautious scenario €24.48, base €24.48, optimistic €72.73 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price €8.57). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Verisure Plc (VSURE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Verisure Plc (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity −2.0%, debt of 0.55 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VSURE from its 52-week high?
Verisure Plc trades at €8.57, about 48% below its 52-week high of €16.62 and 6% above the low of €8.05 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €24.48 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Verisure Plc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value ASSA ABLOY AB, Allegion plc, Securitas AB, Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Verisure Plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price €8.57, calculated fair value €24.48 (+186%), Quality Score 44/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VSURE calculated?
We run Verisure Plc through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €24.48, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Verisure Plc currently trades 186 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Verisure Plc (VSURE)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was €8.57. Our model-based fair value is €24.48, about +186% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Verisure Plc right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (44/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (€24.48). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide (€24.48 to €72.73). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Verisure Plc
How large is the market capitalisation of Verisure Plc (VSURE)?
The market capitalisation of Verisure Plc is €10.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Verisure Plc (VSURE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Verisure Plc is 2.78 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Verisure Plc (VSURE)?
The net margin of Verisure Plc is −6.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Verisure Plc (VSURE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Verisure Plc is −2.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Verisure Plc (VSURE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Verisure Plc is 1.4% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Verisure Plc (VSURE)?
The operating margin of Verisure Plc is 12.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Verisure Plc (VSURE)?
Revenue at Verisure Plc is growing +10.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Verisure Plc (VSURE) carry?
The net debt of Verisure Plc is €5.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 15.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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