MSA Safety Incorporated (MSA) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $6.5B
MSA Safety Incorporated
MSA · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from $118.24 to $118.51 (+0.2%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +16.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 39% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($166.81). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($76.00 to $166.81) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $104.43 – $201.92 · fair‑value band $76.00 – $166.81 · the $194.19 price screens above the $118.51 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
MSA Safety Incorporated (MSA) currently trades at $194.19, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $118.51, implying the stock looks roughly 39.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, MSA Safety Incorporated generated revenue of $1.9B at a net margin of 15.2%. Revenue grew 10.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 22.8%. Net debt stands at $462M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $76.00 (bear case) to $166.81 (bull case); at $194.19, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at -39%, MSA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($124.75) versus Asset-Based ($23.73). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
MSA Safety Incorporated develops, manufactures, and supplies safety products and technology solutions that protect workers and facility infrastructures worldwide.
Full company description
MSA Safety Incorporated develops, manufactures, and supplies safety products and technology solutions that protect workers and facility infrastructures worldwide. The company offers breathing apparatus products, including self-contained breathing apparatus; firefighter helmets and protective apparel; and fixed gas and flame detection systems, such as fixed gas detection monitoring systems, flame detectors and open-path infrared gas detectors, and refrigerant detection and identification solution, as well as hand-held portable gas detection instruments to detect the presence or absence of various gases in the air. It also provides industrial head protection and accessories; fall protection equipment, such as confined space equipment, harnesses, lanyards, and self-retracting lifelines, as well as engineered systems; and air-purifying respirators, eye and face protection products, ballistic helmets, and gas masks. The company serves fire service, energy, utility, construction, and industrial manufacturing applications, as well as heating, ventilation, air conditioning, and refrigeration industries through distributors and end-users through indirect and direct sales channels. It offers its products under the V-Gard, Cairns, and Gallet brand names. MSA Safety Incorporated was founded in 1914 and is based in Cranberry Township, Pennsylvania.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
MSA Safety Incorporated reported revenue of $1.9B in FY2025 versus $1.4B in FY2021, a compound +7.6%/yr. Reported net income was $279M in FY2025, compounding +90.1%/yr from FY2021.
MSA screens 39% overvalued. Compare with ASSA ABLOY AB →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- MSA Safety declares $0.54 dividend
- MSA Safety Declares Quarterly Dividend
- MSA Safety forecasts low double-digit 2026 revenue growth while guiding adjusted gross margin to 47.5%-48.5%
- MSA Safety Incorporporated Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
Peer Group
Security & Protection Services · 113 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Security & Protection Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Security & Protection Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASSA ABLOY AB ASSAB | kr 348.40 | kr 269.97 | -23% |
| Verisure plc VSURE | €10.26 | €12.40 | +21% |
| Allegion plc ALLE | $137.24 | $127.80 | -7% |
| Securitas AB SECUB | kr 162.10 | kr 186.34 | +15% |
| Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co 002236 | ¥16.57 | ¥23.58 | +42% |
| ADT Inc ADT | $7.06 | $17.10 | +142% |
| The Brink's Company BCO | $104.24 | $101.84 | -2% |
| Brady Corporation BRC | $90.16 | $73.43 | -19% |
| The GEO Group GEO | $29.46 | $32.36 | +10% |
| Loomis AB LOOMIS | kr 491.80 | kr 496.43 | +1% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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