Astrana Health Inc (ASTH) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Astrana Health Inc stock $37.91, price $34.50, upside +9.9%, quality 47 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 22 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $18.16 – $119.45 · fair‑value band $26.53 – $49.28 · the $34.50 price screens below the $37.91 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Astrana Health, Inc., a healthcare management company, provides medical care services in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Care Partners, Care Delivery, and Care Enablement.
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The company offers care coordination services to patients, families, primary care physicians, specialists, acute care hospitals, alternative sites of inpatient care, physician groups, and health plans.
Its physician network includes primary care physicians, specialist physicians and extenders, and hospitalists. The company serves patients primarily covered by private or public insurance, such as Medicare, Medicaid, and health maintenance organization; and non-insured patients.
The company was formerly known as Apollo Medical Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Astrana Health, Inc. in February 2024. Astrana Health, Inc. was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Alhambra, California.
Stock analysis
Astrana Health Inc (ASTH) currently trades at $34.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $37.91, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 9.0%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $37.09 per share, and 5 of the 20 models we run sit above the $34.50 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $9.68, and 15 of the 20 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $26.53 (bear) to $49.28 (bull), the price of $34.50 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Astrana Health Inc reported revenue of $3.2B in FY2025 versus $774M in FY2021, a compound +42.4%/yr. Reported net income was $22.5M in FY2025, compounding −24.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.9B Small · P/E ratio 42.1 · P/S ratio 0.50 · EPS (TTM) $0.8200 · Net margin 1.1% · Return on equity 6.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.3% (5-year average) · Operating margin 3.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 31 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 90% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at 10%, ASTH screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$26.53Fair Value $37.91Bull$49.28
Price $34.50 · Upside +9.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.7032 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$25.10$40.49$85.7773
Growth DCF$22.78$45.11$80.0273
5Y EBITDA Exit$18.58$38.51$77.4768
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$25.10$40.49$85.7773
Owner Earnings$11.14$33.69$73.9367
5Y Revenue Exit$11.36$23.95$49.9865
5Y EBITDA Exit$18.58$38.51$77.4768
5Y P/E Exit$6.09$18.32$33.4264
10Y Revenue Exit$15.79$38.62$50.4164
10Y EBITDA Exit$20.91$52.21$104.3561
10Y P/E Exit$12.91$28.68$51.1959
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$3.08$21.50$30.1761
Lynch FV$11.11$15.87$20.6359
PEG = 1.0$11.11$15.87$20.6355
EPVn/an/a$0.330068
Multiples
P/E Multiple$7.48$9.97$12.4763
P/S Multiple$5.78$7.71$9.6358
EV/EBIT$7.11$13.83$20.5663
EV/EBITDA$13.23$22.00$30.7765
EV/Revenue$1.33$7.50$13.6848
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$22.78$45.11$80.0273
Rev-Margin DCF$13.47$29.06$61.9265
Economic Profit
Residual Income$9.51$9.68$10.3668
ROIC Compoundern/an/a$0.330065
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$14.74$21.06$27.3865
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a year distorted by one-off effects.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
Plus 18 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+56.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+40.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+53.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +53.4% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+77.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−17.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−17.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 3%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+16.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +14.2% a year for the price and +9.1% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Care Facilities · 234 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Below median
Fair Value upside+9.9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)6.9% · Below median
Return on assets1.0% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)1.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)3.5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)48.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.27× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Care Facilities median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)42.1× · Priciest 25%
P/B2.48× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)0.50× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)18.5× · Pricier than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Astrana Health Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ASTH
Frequently asked questions
Is Astrana Health Inc (ASTH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $37.91 versus a price of $34.50, about +10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of ASTH?
Our model-based fair value for Astrana Health Inc is $37.91 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $34.50.
What is the quality score of ASTH?
Astrana Health Inc has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Astrana Health Inc (ASTH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $37.91 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $26.53, optimistic scenario $49.28. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Astrana Health Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $37.91, about +10% upside versus a price of $34.50 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $26.53, optimistic scenario $49.28. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Astrana Health Inc (ASTH)?
Astrana Health Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Astrana Health Inc pay a dividend?
Astrana Health Inc does not currently pay a dividend.
What growth is priced into Astrana Health Inc (ASTH)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Astrana Health Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +16.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +53.8 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ASTH use?
Our models discount Astrana Health Inc at 11.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.24, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Astrana Health Inc that is +16.9 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Astrana Health Inc (ASTH) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Astrana Health Inc grew +53.8 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +16.9 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Astrana Health Inc (ASTH) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Astrana Health Inc (+16.9 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Astrana Health Inc (ASTH)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.08 %: that much free cash flow Astrana Health Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Astrana Health Inc (ASTH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Astrana Health Inc it is $37.91 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $34.50. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Astrana Health Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, ASTH trades below its calculated fair value: price $34.50, fair value $37.91, a gap of about +10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ASTH?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($34.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($37.91). For Astrana Health Inc the two are $3.41 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Astrana Health Inc worth?
The market values Astrana Health Inc at about $1.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $34.50; our models calculate a fair value of $37.91 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ASTH?
Our models span a range for Astrana Health Inc: cautious scenario $26.53, base $37.91, optimistic $49.28 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $34.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ASTH?
Astrana Health Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 42.1 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $37.91 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 70.4 (reported for FY2025: 75.0). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), earnings ex one-offs: 28.9. Other multiples: P/B 2.5, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 14.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Astrana Health Inc (ASTH)?
Balance-sheet figures for Astrana Health Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 6.9%, debt of 1.27 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ASTH from its 52-week high?
Astrana Health Inc trades at $34.50, about 31% below its 52-week high of $49.81 and 90% above the low of $18.16 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $37.91 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Astrana Health Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value HCA Healthcare, Inc, Fresenius SE, Tenet Healthcare Corporation, Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Astrana Health Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $34.50, calculated fair value $37.91 (+10%), Quality Score 47/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ASTH calculated?
We run Astrana Health Inc through 22 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $37.91 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Astrana Health Inc currently trades 9% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Astrana Health Inc (ASTH)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $34.50. Our model-based fair value is $37.91, about +10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Astrana Health Inc right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($26.53 to $49.28) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Astrana Health Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Astrana Health Inc (ASTH)?
The market capitalisation of Astrana Health Inc is $1.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Astrana Health Inc (ASTH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Astrana Health Inc is 0.50 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Astrana Health Inc (ASTH)?
Earnings per share at Astrana Health Inc are $0.8200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 42.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Astrana Health Inc (ASTH)?
The net margin of Astrana Health Inc is 1.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Astrana Health Inc (ASTH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Astrana Health Inc is 6.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Astrana Health Inc (ASTH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Astrana Health Inc is 8.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Astrana Health Inc (ASTH)?
The operating margin of Astrana Health Inc is 3.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Astrana Health Inc (ASTH)?
Revenue at Astrana Health Inc is growing +48.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +40.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Astrana Health Inc (ASTH)?
Earnings per share at Astrana Health Inc are growing +111% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Astrana Health Inc (ASTH) carry?
The net debt of Astrana Health Inc is $649M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 6, 2026