ATM Grupa S.A. (ATG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what ATM Grupa S.A. is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 2.22 PLN – 4.29 PLN · fair‑value band 4.18 PLN – 9.66 PLN · the 3.64 PLN price screens below the 7.29 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
ATM Grupa S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a television and film production company in Poland, Europe, North America, Asia, and Australia. It operates through Television and Film Production; Management of Fixed Assets; Broadcasting; Real Estate Development Activity; Production of Computer Games; and Other Activities segments.
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ATM Grupa S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a television and film production company in Poland, Europe, North America, Asia, and Australia. It operates through Television and Film Production; Management of Fixed Assets; Broadcasting; Real Estate Development Activity; Production of Computer Games; and Other Activities segments. The company produces commercial and documentaries, music and current affairs shows, comedy and game shows, reality and thriller shows, political fiction shows, and feature films; sells programming licenses; organizes events; and operates Bielany Stage, which hosts performances of Polish theatre companies. It also offers postproduction services for films, such as media storage, film and sound editing, voice over recording, colour correction, and exporting media; rental services for film studio, OB vans, and production equipment and accessories, including cameras, lenses, lightning, and grip and sound equipment; back-office support, logistics, and creative services, as well as manages sound stages, warehouses, and offices. In addition, the company leases and manages real estate properties; develops and constructs residential and non-residential buildings; broadcasts television programs; and engages in entertainment and recreational activities. Further, it develops computer games and mobile applications; and provides advertising spaces and accounting office services. The company serves broadcasters and viewers. ATM Grupa S.A. was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Bielany Wroclawskie, Poland.
Stock analysis
ATM Grupa S.A. (ATG) currently trades at 3.64 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 7.29 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 50.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 7.49 PLN per share, and 21 of the 26 models we run sit above the 3.64 PLN price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 2.30 PLN, and 5 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 4.18 PLN (bear) to 9.66 PLN (bull), the price of 3.64 PLN sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
ATM Grupa S.A. reported revenue of 323M PLN in FY2025 versus 224M PLN in FY2021, a compound +9.6%/yr. Reported net income was 37.2M PLN in FY2025, compounding +10.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 307M PLN (≈ $81.6M) · P/E ratio 7.6 · P/S ratio 0.87 · EPS (TTM) 0.4800 PLN · Dividend yield 9.6% · Net margin 11.5% · Return on equity 12.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at 100%, ATG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 4.18 PLNFair Value 7.29 PLNBull 9.66 PLN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.0355 PLN per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.74/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+32.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.8%
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+18.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)9.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9% vs 7%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 13%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+6.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Entertainment · 263 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−54% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)13% · Top 25%
Return on assets7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)12% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)10% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth21% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)9.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Entertainment median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ATM Grupa S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ATG
Frequently asked questions
Is ATM Grupa S.A. (ATG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 7.29 PLN versus a price of 3.64 PLN, about +100% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ATG?
Our model-based fair value for ATM Grupa S.A. is 7.29 PLN (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 3.64 PLN.
What is the quality score of ATG?
ATM Grupa S.A. has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ATM Grupa S.A. (ATG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 7.29 PLN (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 4.18 PLN, optimistic scenario 9.66 PLN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ATM Grupa S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 7.29 PLN, about +100% upside versus a price of 3.64 PLN (undervalued). Cautious scenario 4.18 PLN, optimistic scenario 9.66 PLN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ATM Grupa S.A. (ATG)?
ATM Grupa S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 323M PLN (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does ATM Grupa S.A. pay a dividend?
ATM Grupa S.A. currently shows a dividend yield of about 9.62% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into ATM Grupa S.A. (ATG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ATM Grupa S.A. would have to grow free cash flow by +6.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.8 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ATG use?
Our models discount ATM Grupa S.A. at 12.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.47, country premium for Poland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For ATM Grupa S.A. that is +6.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has ATM Grupa S.A. (ATG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at ATM Grupa S.A. grew +10.8 % a year. The price currently implies +6.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of ATM Grupa S.A. (ATG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into ATM Grupa S.A. (+6.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of ATM Grupa S.A. (ATG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.33 %: that much free cash flow ATM Grupa S.A. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of ATM Grupa S.A. (ATG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ATM Grupa S.A. it is 7.29 PLN per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of 3.64 PLN. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ATM Grupa S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, ATG trades below its calculated fair value: price 3.64 PLN, fair value 7.29 PLN, a gap of about +100% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ATG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (3.64 PLN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (7.29 PLN). For ATM Grupa S.A. the two are 3.65 PLN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ATM Grupa S.A. worth?
The market values ATM Grupa S.A. at about 307M PLN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is 3.64 PLN; our models calculate a fair value of 7.29 PLN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ATG?
Our models span a range for ATM Grupa S.A.: cautious scenario 4.18 PLN, base 7.29 PLN, optimistic 9.66 PLN per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price 3.64 PLN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ATG?
ATM Grupa S.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.6 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 7.29 PLN is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.3, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 0.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of ATM Grupa S.A. (ATG)?
Balance-sheet figures for ATM Grupa S.A. (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 12.6%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ATG from its 52-week high?
ATM Grupa S.A. trades at 3.64 PLN, about 12% below its 52-week high of 4.12 PLN and 6% above the low of 3.42 PLN (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 7.29 PLN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ATM Grupa S.A.?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value Netflix, Inc, The Walt Disney Company, Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc, Live Nation Entertainment, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ATM Grupa S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price 3.64 PLN, calculated fair value 7.29 PLN (+100%), Quality Score 67/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ATG calculated?
We run ATM Grupa S.A. through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 7.29 PLN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6 % above its aggregate fair value. ATM Grupa S.A. currently trades 100 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ATM Grupa S.A. (ATG)?
The closing price on Sep 15, 2026 was 3.64 PLN. Our model-based fair value is 7.29 PLN, about +100% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ATM Grupa S.A. right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (4.18 PLN). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (67/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (4.18 PLN to 9.66 PLN) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of ATM Grupa S.A. (ATG) come from?
Earnings per share at ATM Grupa S.A. grew +4.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.4 %, EBIT margin +2.1 %, tax rate −1.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of ATM Grupa S.A.
How large is the market capitalisation of ATM Grupa S.A. (ATG)?
The market capitalisation of ATM Grupa S.A. is 307M PLN (≈ $81.6M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ATM Grupa S.A. (ATG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ATM Grupa S.A. is 0.87 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ATM Grupa S.A. (ATG)?
Earnings per share at ATM Grupa S.A. are 0.4800 PLN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of ATM Grupa S.A. (ATG)?
The dividend yield of ATM Grupa S.A. is 9.6% (payout 72.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of ATM Grupa S.A. (ATG)?
The net margin of ATM Grupa S.A. is 11.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ATM Grupa S.A. (ATG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ATM Grupa S.A. is 12.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ATM Grupa S.A. (ATG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ATM Grupa S.A. is 9.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ATM Grupa S.A. (ATG)?
The operating margin of ATM Grupa S.A. is 9.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ATM Grupa S.A. (ATG)?
Revenue at ATM Grupa S.A. is growing +21.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ATM Grupa S.A. (ATG)?
Earnings per share at ATM Grupa S.A. are growing +94.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does ATM Grupa S.A. (ATG) carry?
The net debt of ATM Grupa S.A. is 384K PLN (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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