Auren Energia S.A (AURE3) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · BR · Market cap R$12.9B
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Share price −7.5% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 17% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R$10.33). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The model range is unusually wide (R$1.80 to R$10.33). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (4 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
52‑month range R$7.34 – R$14.61 · fair‑value band R$1.80 – R$10.33 · the R$10.81 price screens above the R$8.99 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
Auren Energia S.A (AURE3) currently trades at R$10.81, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$8.99, implying the stock looks roughly 16.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Auren Energia S.A generated revenue of R$13.3B at a net margin of -9.7%. Revenue grew 4.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -8.8%. Net debt stands at R$20.7B. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from R$1.80 (bear case) to R$10.33 (bull case); at R$10.81, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -30% fair-value upside, at -17%, AURE3 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (R$12.00) versus Growth DCF (R$1.90). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 51
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Auren Energia S.A. engages in the investment platform for the management, operation, acquisition, development and construction of energy generation, transmission and trading assets in Brazil. The company also operates wind, solar and hydropower generation, as well as in the sale of energy. The company was formerly known as VTRM Energia Participações S.A.
Full company description
Auren Energia S.A. engages in the investment platform for the management, operation, acquisition, development and construction of energy generation, transmission and trading assets in Brazil. The company also operates wind, solar and hydropower generation, as well as in the sale of energy. The company was formerly known as VTRM Energia Participações S.A. and changed its name to Auren Energia S.A. in March 2022. Auren Energia S.A. is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Auren Energia S.A reported revenue of R$13.2B in FY2025 versus R$2.6B in FY2021, a compound +49.7%/yr. Reported net income was −R$664M in FY2025.
AURE3 screens 17% overvalued. Compare with China Yangtze Power Co →
Peer Group
Utilities - Renewable · 220 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Renewable stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Yangtze Power Co 600900 | ¥27.99 | ¥25.13 | -10% |
| Ørsted A/S ORSTED | kr 149.70 | kr 31.40 | -79% |
| Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc 600025 | ¥9.81 | ¥5.57 | -43% |
| Adani Green Energy Limited ADANIGREEN | ₹1,537 | ₹170.50 | -89% |
| AXIA Energia SA AXIAP | $10.74 | $9.65 | -10% |
| VERBUND AG OEWA | €58.65 | €66.19 | +13% |
| BEP BEP | $32.33 | $73.35 | +127% |
| BEPUN BEPUN | C$44.56 | C$10.15 | -77% |
| Fortum Oyj FORTUM | €19.89 | €13.90 | -30% |
| China Longyuan Power Group 001289 | ¥16.21 | ¥8.23 | -49% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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