Auren Energia S.A. (AURE3) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Auren Energia S.A. BRL 25.04, price BRL 12.57, upside +99.2%, quality 40 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
54‑month range R$7.34 – R$14.61 · fair‑value band R$6.84 – R$56.47 · the R$12.57 price screens below the R$25.04 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Auren Energia S.A. engages in the investment platform for the management, operation, acquisition, development and construction of energy generation, transmission and trading assets in Brazil. The company also operates wind, solar and hydropower generation, as well as in the sale of energy. The company was formerly known as VTRM Energia Participações S.A.
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Auren Energia S.A. engages in the investment platform for the management, operation, acquisition, development and construction of energy generation, transmission and trading assets in Brazil. The company also operates wind, solar and hydropower generation, as well as in the sale of energy. The company was formerly known as VTRM Energia Participações S.A. and changed its name to Auren Energia S.A. in March 2022. Auren Energia S.A. is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.
Stock analysis
Auren Energia S.A. (AURE3) currently trades at R$12.57, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$25.04, implying the stock looks roughly 49.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of R$30.39 per share, and 7 of the 13 models we run sit above the R$12.57 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at R$3.16, and 6 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: R$6.84 (bear) to R$56.47 (bull), the price of R$12.57 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Auren Energia S.A. reported revenue of R$13.2B in FY2025 versus R$2.6B in FY2021, a compound +49.7%/yr. Reported net income was −R$664M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap R$13.1B (≈ $2.5B) · P/S ratio 0.97 · EPS (TTM) R$−1.24 · Dividend yield 1.9% · Net margin −5.0% · Return on equity −8.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.8% · Operating margin −3.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at 99%, AURE3 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$6.84Fair Value R$25.04Bull R$56.47
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+63.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+33.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+41.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+62.5%
’18
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
39.6% (2020) → 11.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+31.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Brazil: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 5.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +27.4% a year for the price and +0.2% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Renewable · 210 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score40 · Below median
Fair Value upside+99% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−10% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth4% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.81× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Auren Energia S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AURE3
Frequently asked questions
Is Auren Energia S.A. (AURE3) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$25.04 versus a price of R$12.57, about +99% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AURE3?
Our model-based fair value for Auren Energia S.A. is R$25.04 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$12.57.
What is the quality score of AURE3?
Auren Energia S.A. has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Auren Energia S.A. (AURE3)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$25.04 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$6.84, optimistic scenario R$56.47. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Auren Energia S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$25.04, about +99% upside versus a price of R$12.57 (undervalued). Cautious scenario R$6.84, optimistic scenario R$56.47. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Auren Energia S.A. (AURE3)?
Auren Energia S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$13.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Auren Energia S.A. pay a dividend?
Auren Energia S.A. currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.88% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Auren Energia S.A. (AURE3)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Auren Energia S.A. would have to grow free cash flow by +31.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +41.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AURE3 use?
Our models discount Auren Energia S.A. at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.19, country premium for Brazil. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Auren Energia S.A. that is +31.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Auren Energia S.A. (AURE3) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Auren Energia S.A. grew +41.7 % a year. The price currently implies +31.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Auren Energia S.A. (AURE3) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +0.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Auren Energia S.A. (+31.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Auren Energia S.A. (AURE3)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.00 %: that much free cash flow Auren Energia S.A. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Auren Energia S.A. (AURE3)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Auren Energia S.A. it is R$25.04 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of R$12.57. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Auren Energia S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, AURE3 trades below its calculated fair value: price R$12.57, fair value R$25.04, a gap of about +99% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AURE3?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$12.57); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$25.04). For Auren Energia S.A. the two are R$12.47 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Auren Energia S.A. worth?
The market values Auren Energia S.A. at about R$13.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is R$12.57; our models calculate a fair value of R$25.04 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AURE3?
Our models span a range for Auren Energia S.A.: cautious scenario R$6.84, base R$25.04, optimistic R$56.47 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price R$12.57). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Auren Energia S.A. (AURE3)?
Balance-sheet figures for Auren Energia S.A. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −8.8%, debt of 1.81 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AURE3 from its 52-week high?
Auren Energia S.A. trades at R$12.57, about 14% below its 52-week high of R$14.61 and 25% above the low of R$10.05 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$25.04 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Auren Energia S.A.?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value China Yangtze Power Co, Ørsted A/S, Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc, Adani Green Energy Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Auren Energia S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price R$12.57, calculated fair value R$25.04 (+99%), Quality Score 40/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AURE3 calculated?
We run Auren Energia S.A. through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$25.04, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Auren Energia S.A. currently trades 99 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Auren Energia S.A. (AURE3)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was R$12.57. Our model-based fair value is R$25.04, about +99% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Auren Energia S.A. right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (40/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The model range is unusually wide (R$6.84 to R$56.47). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of Auren Energia S.A.
How large is the market capitalisation of Auren Energia S.A. (AURE3)?
The market capitalisation of Auren Energia S.A. is R$13.1B (≈ $2.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Auren Energia S.A. (AURE3)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Auren Energia S.A. is 0.97 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Auren Energia S.A. (AURE3)?
Earnings per share at Auren Energia S.A. are R$−1.24. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Auren Energia S.A. (AURE3)?
The dividend yield of Auren Energia S.A. is 1.9%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Auren Energia S.A. (AURE3)?
The net margin of Auren Energia S.A. is −5.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Auren Energia S.A. (AURE3)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Auren Energia S.A. is −8.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Auren Energia S.A. (AURE3)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Auren Energia S.A. is 3.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Auren Energia S.A. (AURE3)?
The operating margin of Auren Energia S.A. is −3.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Auren Energia S.A. (AURE3)?
Revenue at Auren Energia S.A. is growing +4.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +33.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Auren Energia S.A. (AURE3)?
Earnings per share at Auren Energia S.A. are growing −96.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Auren Energia S.A. (AURE3) carry?
The net debt of Auren Energia S.A. is R$20.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 31.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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