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Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (AVBC) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Avidia Bancorp, Inc. is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Financial Services · US · ISIN US05369T1007

AB Avidia Bancorp, Inc. logo Thin data Sep 13, 2026

Avidia Bancorp, Inc.

AVBC · US

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value $19.33 · Overvalued (−11%)
!Quality 48/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +15.1 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 13.8% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·0.23% dividend yield
!Trails peers (4/13)
!Moderate moat 53/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on valuation: 18 out of 100
!Weak on past: 20 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$22.41 $14.23 Fair Value $19.33 Aug 2025 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

13‑month range $14.23 – $22.41 · fair‑value band $10.61 – $32.05 · the $21.77 price screens above the $19.33 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Sep 13, 2026.

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Company profile

Avidia Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Avidia Bank that provides various financial services to individual and corporate customers. The company offers savings and checking, certificates of deposit, individual retirement, money market, demand deposit, and interest-bearing and noninterest-bearing checking accounts.

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Avidia Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Avidia Bank that provides various financial services to individual and corporate customers. The company offers savings and checking, certificates of deposit, individual retirement, money market, demand deposit, and interest-bearing and noninterest-bearing checking accounts. It also provides savings, checking, debit cards, credit cards, youth accounts, veterans checking, mobile banking, internet banking, international wires, and health savings and borrowing services, including loans, home equity, mortgages, masshousing homeowner loans, and auto loans. Additionally, the company offers e-banking services, cash management, merchant services, law firm banking, nonprofit banking, and municipal banking services and borrowing services that include commercial loans, commercial mortgage loans, land development loans, business term loans, working capital lines of credit, letters of credit, business manager, dental practice loans, condo association loans, and small business banking partnership services. Further, it offers payments processing services; and invests in liquid assets, including U.S. Treasury securities, U.S. government agency and government-sponsored enterprise securities, mortgage-backed securities, municipal securities, certificates of deposit of federally-insured institutions, and investment grade corporate bonds. Avidia Bancorp, Inc. was founded in 1869 and is headquartered in Hudson, Massachusetts.

Stock analysis

Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (AVBC) currently trades at $21.77, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $19.33, implying the stock looks roughly 12.6% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $19.53 per share, and 1 of the 7 models we run sit above the $21.77 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $13.67, and 6 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $10.61 (bear) to $32.05 (bull), the price of $21.77 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Avidia Bancorp, Inc. reported revenue of $148M in FY2025 versus $87.1M in FY2021, a compound +14.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$3.3M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $403M · P/E ratio 28.3 · P/S ratio 3.60 · EPS (TTM) $0.7700 · Dividend yield 0.2% · Net margin −2.2% · Return on equity 5.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.7%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades near its 52-week high and 56% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −33% fair-value upside, at −11%, AVBC screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $10.61 Fair Value $19.33 Bull $32.05
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5070 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $12.64 $23.50 $40.95 77
Growth DCF $12.29 $21.54 $35.33 76
Rev-Margin DCF $10.49 $19.31 $31.13 71
All 7 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $12.64 $23.50 $40.95 77
5Y Revenue Exit $10.49 $19.53 $31.91 70
10Y Revenue Exit $10.77 $19.30 $32.64 65
Multiples
EV/Revenue $9.41 $14.18 $18.95 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $10.20 $13.67 $20.41 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $12.29 $21.54 $35.33 76
Rev-Margin DCF $10.49 $19.31 $31.13 71

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 48/100

Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 76

Profitability 8
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 25
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 75
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 2
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 58
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 79
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 66
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 90
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 86/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.1%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
100.0% (2020) → −3.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+19.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.

AVBC screens 13% overvalued. Compare with DBS Group →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1077 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 45 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −94% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 5% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 14% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 32% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 411% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.13× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 28.3× · Priciest 25%
P/B 0.99× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 3.60× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 15.5× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)18 · sector 11
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 44
PAST (return on equity)20 · sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)94 · sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)5 · sector 52

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
DBS Group DBS19 20.20 THB 6.69 THB −67%
China Merchants Bank Co 3968 HK$51.95 HK$79.50 +53%
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.83 €4.04 −41%
HDFC Bank Limited HDB $23.34 $15.75 −33%
BNP Paribas SA BNP €103.76 €105.99 +2%
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €85.17 €77.62 −9%
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $11.45 $9.68 −15%
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,379 ₹636.31 −54%
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 31.60 SGD 19.80 SGD −37%
The PNC Financial Services Group PNC $244.24 $159.52 −35%

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Avidia Bancorp, Inc. · Fair Value
$19.33 −13%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Avidia Bancorp, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AVBC

Frequently asked questions

Is Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (AVBC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $19.33 versus a price of $21.77, about −11% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AVBC?
Our model-based fair value for Avidia Bancorp, Inc. is $19.33 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $21.77.
What is the quality score of AVBC?
Avidia Bancorp, Inc. has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (AVBC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $19.33 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.61, optimistic scenario $32.05. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Avidia Bancorp, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $19.33, about −11% upside versus a price of $21.77 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $10.61, optimistic scenario $32.05. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (AVBC)?
Avidia Bancorp, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $104M (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Avidia Bancorp, Inc. pay a dividend?
Avidia Bancorp, Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.23% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (AVBC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Avidia Bancorp, Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +19.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.1 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AVBC use?
Our models discount Avidia Bancorp, Inc. at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Avidia Bancorp, Inc. that is +19.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (AVBC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Avidia Bancorp, Inc. grew +15.1 % a year. The price currently implies +19.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (AVBC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (+19.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (AVBC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.97 %: that much free cash flow Avidia Bancorp, Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (AVBC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Avidia Bancorp, Inc. it is $19.33 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of $21.77. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Avidia Bancorp, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, AVBC trades above its calculated fair value: price $21.77, fair value $19.33, a gap of about −11% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AVBC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($21.77); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($19.33). For Avidia Bancorp, Inc. the two are $2.44 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Avidia Bancorp, Inc. worth?
The market values Avidia Bancorp, Inc. at about $403M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is $21.77; our models calculate a fair value of $19.33 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AVBC?
Our models span a range for Avidia Bancorp, Inc.: cautious scenario $10.61, base $19.33, optimistic $32.05 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price $21.77). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AVBC?
Avidia Bancorp, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 28.3 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $19.33 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 3.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (AVBC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 5.0%, debt of 0.13 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AVBC from its 52-week high?
Avidia Bancorp, Inc. trades at $21.77, about 2% below its 52-week high of $21.37 and 56% above the low of $13.93 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $19.33 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Avidia Bancorp, Inc.?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Avidia Bancorp, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price $21.77, calculated fair value $19.33 (−11%), Quality Score 48/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AVBC calculated?
We run Avidia Bancorp, Inc. through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $19.33, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Avidia Bancorp, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Avidia Bancorp, Inc. right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($10.61 to $32.05). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of Avidia Bancorp, Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (AVBC)?
The market capitalisation of Avidia Bancorp, Inc. is $403M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (AVBC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Avidia Bancorp, Inc. is 3.60 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (AVBC)?
Earnings per share at Avidia Bancorp, Inc. are $0.7700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 28.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (AVBC)?
The dividend yield of Avidia Bancorp, Inc. is 0.2% (payout 6.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (AVBC)?
The net margin of Avidia Bancorp, Inc. is −2.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (AVBC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Avidia Bancorp, Inc. is 5.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (AVBC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Avidia Bancorp, Inc. is 1.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (AVBC)?
The operating margin of Avidia Bancorp, Inc. is 32.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (AVBC)?
Revenue at Avidia Bancorp, Inc. is growing +411% versus a year earlier (3y avg +18.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (AVBC) carry?
The net debt of Avidia Bancorp, Inc. is $272M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 11.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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