Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (AVBC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 28, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Avidia Bancorp, Inc. stock $36.00, price $23.26, upside +54.8%, quality 44 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value 30%+ above price?Yes
Quality 50+?No
In an uptrend?Yes
Keep an eye on it?Free in your watchlist: 5 stocks without an account, 10 with oneYes, for free
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
15‑month range $14.23 – $23.26 · fair‑value band $23.84 – $53.69 · the $23.26 price screens below the $36.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 28, 2026.
Follow Avidia Bancorp in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Avidia Bancorp is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Avidia Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Avidia Bank that provides various financial services to individual and corporate customers.
Show moreShow less
The company offers savings and checking, certificates of deposit, individual retirement, money market, demand deposit, and interest-bearing and noninterest-bearing checking accounts.
It also provides savings, checking, debit cards, credit cards, youth accounts, veterans checking, mobile banking, internet banking, international wires, and health savings and borrowing services, including loans, home equity, mortgages, masshousing homeowner loans, and auto loans.
Additionally, the company offers e-banking services, cash management, merchant services, law firm banking, nonprofit banking, and municipal banking services and borrowing services that include commercial loans, commercial mortgage loans, land development loans, business term loans, working capital lines of credit, letters of credit, business manager, dental practice loans, condo association loans, and small business banking partnership services.
Further, it offers payments processing services; and invests in liquid assets, including U.S. Treasury securities, U.S. government agency and government-sponsored enterprise securities, mortgage-backed securities, municipal securities, certificates of deposit of federally-insured institutions, and investment grade corporate bonds.
Avidia Bancorp, Inc. was founded in 1869 and is headquartered in Hudson, Massachusetts.
Stock analysis
Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (AVBC) currently trades at $23.26, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $36.00, implying the stock looks roughly 35.4% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $36.00 per share, and 5 of the 7 models we run sit above the $23.26 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $13.75, and 2 of the 7 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $23.84 (bear) to $53.69 (bull), the price of $23.26 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Avidia Bancorp, Inc. reported revenue of $148M in FY2025 versus $87.1M in FY2021, a compound +14.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$3.3M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $432M Small · P/E ratio 15.8 · P/S ratio 3.84 · EPS (TTM) $1.47 · Dividend yield 0.7% · Net margin 24.1% · Return on equity 7.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 59 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 58% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at 55%, AVBC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$23.84Fair Value $36.00Bull$53.69
Price $23.26 · Upside +54.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.08 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.86/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
100.0% (2020) → −3.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+20.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +17.8% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1064 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score44 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+54.8% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)7.3% · Below median
Return on assets−0.1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)24.1% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)38.6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)17.1% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.7% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.13× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Avidia Bancorp, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AVBC
Frequently asked questions
Is Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (AVBC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $36.00 versus a price of $23.26, about +55% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AVBC?
Our model-based fair value for Avidia Bancorp, Inc. is $36.00 (as of Oct 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $23.26.
What is the quality score of AVBC?
Avidia Bancorp, Inc. has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (AVBC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $36.00 (as of Oct 28, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario $23.84, optimistic scenario $53.69. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Avidia Bancorp, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $36.00, about +55% upside versus a price of $23.26 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $23.84, optimistic scenario $53.69. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (AVBC)?
Avidia Bancorp, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $113M (latest available figure, as of Oct 28, 2026).
Does Avidia Bancorp, Inc. pay a dividend?
Avidia Bancorp, Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of 0.69% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (AVBC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Avidia Bancorp, Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +20.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.1 % per year. As of Oct 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AVBC use?
Our models discount Avidia Bancorp, Inc. at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Avidia Bancorp, Inc. that is +20.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (AVBC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Avidia Bancorp, Inc. grew +15.1 % a year. The price currently implies +20.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (AVBC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (+20.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (AVBC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.57 %: that much free cash flow Avidia Bancorp, Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (AVBC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Avidia Bancorp, Inc. it is $36.00 per share (as of Oct 28, 2026), against a price of $23.26. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Avidia Bancorp, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 28, 2026, AVBC trades below its calculated fair value: price $23.26, fair value $36.00, a gap of about +55% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AVBC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($23.26); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($36.00). For Avidia Bancorp, Inc. the two are $12.74 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Avidia Bancorp, Inc. worth?
The market values Avidia Bancorp, Inc. at about $432M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 28, 2026). Per share that is $23.26; our models calculate a fair value of $36.00 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AVBC?
Our models span a range for Avidia Bancorp, Inc.: cautious scenario $23.84, base $36.00, optimistic $53.69 per share (as of Oct 28, 2026, price $23.26). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AVBC?
Avidia Bancorp, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.8 (as of Oct 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $36.00 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 3.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (AVBC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (as of Oct 28, 2026): return on equity 7.3%, debt of 0.13 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AVBC from its 52-week high?
Avidia Bancorp, Inc. trades at $23.26, at its 52-week high of $23.26 and 58% above the low of $14.70 (as of Oct 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $36.00 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Avidia Bancorp, Inc.?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Avidia Bancorp, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 28, 2026: price $23.26, calculated fair value $36.00 (+55%), Quality Score 44/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AVBC calculated?
We run Avidia Bancorp, Inc. through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $36.00, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Avidia Bancorp, Inc. currently trades 35 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (AVBC)?
The closing price on Oct 28, 2026 was $23.26. Our model-based fair value is $36.00, about +55% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Avidia Bancorp, Inc. right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (44/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($23.84). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. A fairly wide model range ($23.84 to $53.69) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Avidia Bancorp, Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (AVBC)?
The market capitalisation of Avidia Bancorp, Inc. is $432M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (AVBC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Avidia Bancorp, Inc. is 3.84 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (AVBC)?
Earnings per share at Avidia Bancorp, Inc. are $1.47 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (AVBC)?
The dividend yield of Avidia Bancorp, Inc. is 0.7% (payout 10.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (AVBC)?
The net margin of Avidia Bancorp, Inc. is 24.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (AVBC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Avidia Bancorp, Inc. is 7.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (AVBC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Avidia Bancorp, Inc. is 1.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (AVBC)?
The operating margin of Avidia Bancorp, Inc. is 38.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (AVBC)?
Revenue at Avidia Bancorp, Inc. is growing +17.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +18.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (AVBC)?
Earnings per share at Avidia Bancorp, Inc. are growing +100% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Avidia Bancorp, Inc. (AVBC) carry?
The net debt of Avidia Bancorp, Inc. is $272M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 11.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Avidia Bancorp, Inc. in the live analysis
One click puts Avidia Bancorp, Inc. on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 28,000+ stock screener.
Some data
Oct 28, 2026