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Archer Materials Ltd (AXE) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 5, 2026: fair value of Archer Materials Ltd A$0.04, price A$0.18, upside -77.8%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Technology · AU · ISIN AU000000AXE7

AM Thin data Oct 2, 2026

Archer Materials Ltd

AXE · AU

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

Low debt
Quality 46/100
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +53.8 %/yr in AUD)
Fair value A$0.0400 · Strongly overvalued (−77.8%)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (1/9)
Narrow moat 12/100
Thin data
⟳ Cyclical
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$2.58 A$0.1600 Fair Value A$0.0400 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.1600 – A$2.58 · fair‑value band A$0.0200 – A$0.0400 · the A$0.1800 price screens above the A$0.0400 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.

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Company profile

Archer Materials Limited, a technology company, engages in development and commercialization of semiconductor devices and sensors related to quantum computing, medical diagnostics, TMR sensors, and lab-on-a-chip medical diagnostics in Australia. It offers qubit processor chip; and graphene-based lab-on-a-chip Biochip.

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Archer Materials Limited, a technology company, engages in development and commercialization of semiconductor devices and sensors related to quantum computing, medical diagnostics, TMR sensors, and lab-on-a-chip medical diagnostics in Australia. It offers qubit processor chip; and graphene-based lab-on-a-chip Biochip. The company was formerly known as Archer Exploration Limited and changed its name to Archer Materials Limited in October 2019. Archer Materials Limited was incorporated in 2007 and is based in Adelaide, Australia.

Stock analysis

Archer Materials Ltd (AXE) currently trades at A$0.1800, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0400, 77.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: A$0.0200 (bear) to A$0.0400 (bull), the price of A$0.1800 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Archer Materials Ltd reported revenue of A$2.1M in FY2025 versus A$468K in FY2021, a compound +44.8%/yr. Reported net income was −A$6.4M in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap A$54.0M (≈ $37.5M) · P/S ratio 23.0 · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0200 · Net margin −271% · Return on equity −46.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −44.1% · Operating margin −359% · Revenue (TTM) A$2.4M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 61% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −41% fair-value upside, at −78%, AXE screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.0200 Fair Value A$0.0400 Bull A$0.0400
Price A$0.1800 · Upside -77.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0200 A$0.0300 A$0.0400 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0200 A$0.0300 A$0.0400 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 46/100

Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 18

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 16
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 7
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 6
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 3
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 79
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 38/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+53.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +29.6% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+39.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−1,225.0% (2020) → −315.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

AXE screens overvalued: fair value 78% below the price. Compare with NVIDIA Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductors · 333 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 46 · Below median
Fair Value upside −77.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −28.4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 15.3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.00× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper

P/B 3.48× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 15.94× · Priciest 25%
PEG 3.99× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)77 · sector 86
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 19

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company TSM $459.20 $505.12 +10%
Broadcom Inc AVGO $351.19 $303.10 −14%
Micron Technology, Inc MU $1,075 $151.51 −86%
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc AMD $611.76 $122.60 −80%
SK hynix Inc 000660 1,833,000 KRW 2,016,300 KRW +10%
Intel Corporation INTC $115.93 $33.67 −71%
Arm Holdings ARM $310.32 $44.44 −86%
MediaTek Inc 2454 5,285 TWD 3,142 TWD −41%
Texas Instruments Incorporated TXN $280.09 $81.75 −71%

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Archer Materials Ltd · Fair Value
A$0.0400 −78%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Archer Materials Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AXE

Frequently asked questions

Is Archer Materials Ltd (AXE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0400 versus a price of A$0.1800, about −78% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AXE?
Our model-based fair value for Archer Materials Ltd is A$0.0400 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.1800.
What is the quality score of AXE?
Archer Materials Ltd has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Archer Materials Ltd (AXE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0400 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0200, optimistic scenario A$0.0400. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Archer Materials Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0400, about −78% upside versus a price of A$0.1800 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0200, optimistic scenario A$0.0400. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Archer Materials Ltd (AXE)?
Archer Materials Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$2.4M (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Archer Materials Ltd (AXE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Archer Materials Ltd it is A$0.0400 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of A$0.1800. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Archer Materials Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, AXE trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.1800, fair value A$0.0400, a gap of about −78% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AXE?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.1800); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0400). For Archer Materials Ltd the two are A$0.1400 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Archer Materials Ltd worth?
The market values Archer Materials Ltd at about A$54.0M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is A$0.1800; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0400 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AXE?
Our models span a range for Archer Materials Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0200, base A$0.0400, optimistic A$0.0400 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price A$0.1800). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of AXE?
The PEG ratio of Archer Materials Ltd is 3.99 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 2, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Archer Materials Ltd (AXE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Archer Materials Ltd (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity −46.3%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AXE from its 52-week high?
Archer Materials Ltd trades at A$0.1800, about 61% below its 52-week high of A$0.4650 and 13% above the low of A$0.1600 (as of Oct 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0400 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Archer Materials Ltd?
From the same area (Technology) we also value NVIDIA Corporation, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Broadcom Inc, Micron Technology, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Archer Materials Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price A$0.1800, calculated fair value A$0.0400 (−78%), Quality Score 46/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AXE calculated?
We run Archer Materials Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0400, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Archer Materials Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Archer Materials Ltd (AXE)?
The closing price on Oct 5, 2026 was A$0.1800. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0400, about −78% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Archer Materials Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0400). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (A$0.0200 to A$0.0400) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Archer Materials Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Archer Materials Ltd (AXE)?
The market capitalisation of Archer Materials Ltd is A$54.0M (≈ $37.5M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Archer Materials Ltd (AXE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Archer Materials Ltd is 23.0 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Archer Materials Ltd (AXE)?
Earnings per share at Archer Materials Ltd are A$−0.0200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Archer Materials Ltd (AXE)?
The net margin of Archer Materials Ltd is −271% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Archer Materials Ltd (AXE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Archer Materials Ltd is −46.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Archer Materials Ltd (AXE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Archer Materials Ltd is −44.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Archer Materials Ltd (AXE)?
The operating margin of Archer Materials Ltd is −359% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Archer Materials Ltd (AXE)?
Revenue at Archer Materials Ltd is growing +15.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +28.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Archer Materials Ltd (AXE) generate?
The free cash flow of Archer Materials Ltd is −A$5.3M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Archer Materials Ltd (AXE) hold?
Archer Materials Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$8.4M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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