Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (0981) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · HK · Market cap HK$682B
Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Fair value as of: Aug 20, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated today
Share price +4.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 85% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$14.34). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$14.02 – HK$91.05 · fair‑value band HK$8.60 – HK$14.34 · the HK$73.00 price screens above the HK$11.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
Analysis
Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (0981) currently trades at HK$73.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$11.20, implying the stock looks roughly 84.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp generated revenue of HK$9.6B at a net margin of 7.3%. Revenue grew 11.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.6%. Net debt stands at HK$6.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 20, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$8.60 (bear case) to HK$14.34 (bull case); at HK$73.00, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 89% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -56% fair-value upside, at -85%, 0981 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$13.18) versus Dividend Discount (HK$0.0785). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation, an investment holding company, engages in the manufacture, testing, and sale of integrated circuits wafer and various compound semiconductors in the United States, China, and Eurasia.
Full company description
Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation, an investment holding company, engages in the manufacture, testing, and sale of integrated circuits wafer and various compound semiconductors in the United States, China, and Eurasia. The company is also involved in the manufacturing, sale, and trading of semiconductor products; and research and development activities. In addition, it offers semiconductor foundry and technology services; supporting services comprising design and IP support, photomask manufacturing, etc.; development, design, and technical services related to integrated circuits; marketing related services; and private education services. Further, the company tests and sells self-produced products, and other services. Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp reported revenue of HK$9.3B in FY2025 versus HK$5.4B in FY2021, a compound +14.4%/yr. Reported net income was HK$685M in FY2025, compounding −20.3%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +14.3 pp · buybacks/dilution −9.1 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
0981 screens 85% overvalued. Compare with NVIDIA Corporation →
Peer Group
Semiconductors · 327 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Semiconductors stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 20, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVIDIA Corporation NVDA | $225.01 | $98.98 | -56% |
| Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company TSM | $429.15 | $291.42 | -32% |
| Broadcom Inc 1AVGO | €366.85 | €121.25 | -67% |
| Micron Technology, Inc 1MU | €802.10 | €185.67 | -77% |
| SK hynix Inc 000660 | 1,504,000 KRW | 1,481,291 KRW | -2% |
| Advanced Micro Devices, Inc 1AMD | €428.20 | €56.33 | -87% |
| Intel Corporation INTC | C$54.50 | C$16.95 | -69% |
| MediaTek Inc 2454 | 3,845 TWD | 1,559 TWD | -59% |
| SK Square Co 402340 | 1,024,000 KRW | 1,204,862 KRW | +18% |
| GigaDevice Semiconductor Inc 3986 | HK$515.00 | HK$274.86 | -47% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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