Axfood AB (AXFO) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · SE · Market cap 49.7B SEK
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price −10.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 23% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (kr 138.08 to kr 265.67) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 177.39 – kr 333.28 · fair‑value band kr 138.08 – kr 265.67 · the kr 239.50 price screens above the kr 184.11 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Axfood AB (AXFO) currently trades at kr 239.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 184.11, implying the stock looks roughly 23.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Axfood AB generated revenue of 89.7B SEK at a net margin of 2.7%. Revenue grew 2.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 39.5%. Net debt stands at 14.3B SEK. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from kr 138.08 (bear case) to kr 265.67 (bull case); at kr 239.50, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -31% fair-value upside, at -23%, AXFO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (kr 314.53) versus Asset-Based (kr 23.30). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Axfood AB (publ) engages in the food retail and wholesale businesses primarily in Sweden. The company operates through five segments: Willys, Hemköp, City Gross, Snabbgross, and Dagab. The company sells groceries through Willys, HANDLAR'N, Hemköp, and Eurocash, City Gross, and Tempo store chains.
Full company description
Axfood AB (publ) engages in the food retail and wholesale businesses primarily in Sweden. The company operates through five segments: Willys, Hemköp, City Gross, Snabbgross, and Dagab. The company sells groceries through Willys, HANDLAR'N, Hemköp, and Eurocash, City Gross, and Tempo store chains. It is also involved in the e-commerce business; and provision of private label products. In addition, it operates Urban Deli, a combination of restaurant, store, and market hall; Apohem, an online retail pharmacy; Matöppet, a personal grocery store and the retailer-owned mini-mart; Snabbgross, a restaurant; and Tempo, a mini-mart format of retailer-owned stores. The company serves restaurants, fast food operators, and cafés; and retailer-owned stores, mini-marts, and other convenience retailers. Axfood AB (publ) was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden. Axfood AB (publ) operates as a subsidiary of Axretail AB.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Axfood AB reported revenue of kr 89.2B in FY2025 versus kr 57.9B in FY2021, a compound +11.4%/yr. Reported net income was kr 2.3B in FY2025, compounding +2.1%/yr from FY2021.
AXFO screens 23% overvalued. Compare with Loblaw Companies Limited →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Axfood AB (AXFOF) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating Deflation and Fuel Costs with ...
- Axfood AB (LTS:0R6R) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Profit Growth Amid Market Challenges
- Axfood AB (FRA:AXL1) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Retail Sales Growth and Strategic ...
Peer Group
Grocery Stores · 83 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Grocery Stores median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Grocery Stores stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loblaw Companies Limited L | C$65.49 | C$44.44 | -32% |
| Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V AD | €36.30 | €53.50 | +47% |
| The Kroger Co KR | $58.82 | $28.19 | -52% |
| Woolworths Group WOW | A$39.20 | A$13.40 | -66% |
| George Weston Limited WN | C$100.98 | C$63.61 | -37% |
| Coles Group COL | A$23.56 | A$15.86 | -33% |
| Metro Inc MRU | C$93.64 | C$94.01 | +0% |
| Carrefour SA CA | €16.40 | €11.51 | -30% |
| CP ALL Public Company TCPD | 1.89 SGD | 2.36 SGD | +25% |
| BIM Birlesik Magazalar A.S., BIMAS | 385.75 TRY | 267.12 TRY | -31% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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