AXIA Energia SA (AXIA3) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · BR · Market cap R$120B
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 15, 2026, revised from R$52.22 to R$45.33 (−13.2%) since Jul 14, 2026. Share price −0.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 15% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- Our model range runs from R$33.99 (bear) to R$56.66 (bull), base R$45.33. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 61/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$24.88 – R$67.15 · fair‑value band R$33.99 – R$56.66 · the R$53.17 price screens above the R$45.33 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
AXIA Energia SA (AXIA3) currently trades at R$53.17, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$45.33, implying the stock looks roughly 14.8% overvalued today. We read business quality at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, AXIA Energia SA generated revenue of R$43.6B at a net margin of 21.9%. Revenue grew 22.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.9%. Net debt stands at R$60.8B. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from R$33.99 (bear case) to R$56.66 (bull case); at R$53.17, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 55% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -30% fair-value upside, at -15%, AXIA3 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (R$77.80) versus Earnings-Based (R$15.90). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
AXIA Energia SA, through its subsidiaries, engages in the generation, transmission, distribution, and commercialization of electricity in Brazil. The company generates electricity through hydroelectric, wind farms, and solar power plants.
Full company description
AXIA Energia SA, through its subsidiaries, engages in the generation, transmission, distribution, and commercialization of electricity in Brazil. The company generates electricity through hydroelectric, wind farms, and solar power plants. It also owns hydroelectric plants with a total capacity of 43,072.7 MW; 798.7 MW wind power plants; and 67,030.74 km of transmission lines. The company was formerly known as Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás. AXIA Energia SA was incorporated in 1962 and is headquartered in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
AXIA Energia SA reported revenue of R$41.3B in FY2025 versus R$37.6B in FY2021, a compound +2.4%/yr. Reported net income was R$6.6B in FY2025, compounding +3.8%/yr from FY2021.
AXIA3 screens 15% overvalued. Compare with China Yangtze Power Co →
Peer Group
Utilities - Renewable · 213 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Renewable stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Yangtze Power Co 600900 | ¥27.99 | ¥25.13 | -10% |
| Ørsted A/S ORSTED | kr 149.70 | kr 31.40 | -79% |
| Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc 600025 | ¥9.81 | ¥5.57 | -43% |
| Adani Green Energy Limited ADANIGREEN | ₹1,537 | ₹170.50 | -89% |
| VERBUND AG OEWA | €58.65 | €66.19 | +13% |
| BEP BEP | $32.33 | $73.35 | +127% |
| BEPUN BEPUN | C$44.56 | C$10.15 | -77% |
| Fortum Oyj FORTUM | €19.89 | €13.90 | -30% |
| China Longyuan Power Group 001289 | ¥16.21 | ¥8.23 | -49% |
| SDIC Power Holdings 600886 | ¥14.23 | ¥16.63 | +17% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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