Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás (AXIA3) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$24.88 – R$67.15 · fair‑value band R$23.94 – R$58.59 · the R$55.15 price screens above the R$40.28 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
AXIA Energia SA, through its subsidiaries, engages in the generation, transmission, distribution, and commercialization of electricity in Brazil. The company generates electricity through hydroelectric, wind farms, and solar power plants.
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AXIA Energia SA, through its subsidiaries, engages in the generation, transmission, distribution, and commercialization of electricity in Brazil. The company generates electricity through hydroelectric, wind farms, and solar power plants. It also owns hydroelectric plants with a total capacity of 43,072.7 MW; 798.7 MW wind power plants; and 67,030.74 km of transmission lines. The company was formerly known as Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás. AXIA Energia SA was incorporated in 1962 and is headquartered in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Stock analysis
Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás (AXIA3) currently trades at R$55.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$40.28, implying the stock looks roughly 36.9% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of R$77.80 per share, and 4 of the 26 models we run sit above the R$55.15 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at R$15.90, and 22 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R$23.94 (bear) to R$58.59 (bull), the price of R$55.15 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás reported revenue of R$41.3B in FY2025 versus R$37.6B in FY2021, a compound +2.4%/yr. Reported net income was R$6.6B in FY2025, compounding +3.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap R$124B (≈ $24.2B) · P/E ratio 12.5 · P/S ratio 1.99 · EPS (TTM) R$4.40 · Dividend yield 10.7% · Net margin 15.9% · Return on equity 7.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 61% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at −27%, AXIA3 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$23.94Fair Value R$40.28Bull R$58.59
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$3.19 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.79/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.3%
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in BRL ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in BRL: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+10.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−0.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)10.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−7% vs 2%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.21% → 35%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.4%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+9.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Compare Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Renewable · 206 stocks
Beats the industry median on 13/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−28% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8% · Above median
Return on assets2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)22% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)44% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth22% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)10.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.52× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)12.5× · Cheaper than median
P/B0.20× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.54× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF1.9× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA5.1× · Cheapest 25%
PEG2.93× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 17
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)31· sector 12
HEALTH (low debt)74· sector 69
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 46
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás (AXIA3) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$40.28 versus a price of R$55.15, about −27% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AXIA3?
Our model-based fair value for Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás is R$40.28 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$55.15.
What is the quality score of AXIA3?
Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás (AXIA3)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$40.28 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$23.94, optimistic scenario R$58.59. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$40.28, about −27% upside versus a price of R$55.15 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$23.94, optimistic scenario R$58.59. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás (AXIA3)?
Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$43.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás pay a dividend?
Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás currently shows a dividend yield of about 10.67% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What growth is priced into Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás (AXIA3)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás would have to grow free cash flow by +5.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.3 % per year. As of Sep 18, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AXIA3 use?
Our models discount Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás at 10.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.20, country premium for Brazil. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás that is +5.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás (AXIA3) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás grew +7.3 % a year. The price currently implies +5.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás (AXIA3) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +0.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás (+5.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás (AXIA3)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.93 %: that much free cash flow Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás (AXIA3)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás it is R$40.28 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of R$55.15. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, AXIA3 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$55.15, fair value R$40.28, a gap of about −27% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AXIA3?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$55.15); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$40.28). For Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás the two are R$14.87 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás worth?
The market values Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás at about R$124B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is R$55.15; our models calculate a fair value of R$40.28 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AXIA3?
Our models span a range for Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás: cautious scenario R$23.94, base R$40.28, optimistic R$58.59 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price R$55.15). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AXIA3?
Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.5 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$40.28 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.9, P/B 0.2, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 5.1.
What is the PEG ratio of AXIA3?
The PEG ratio of Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás is 2.93 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 18, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás (AXIA3)?
Balance-sheet figures for Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 7.9%, debt of 0.52 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AXIA3 from its 52-week high?
Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás trades at R$55.15, about 19% below its 52-week high of R$67.84 and 61% above the low of R$34.31 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$40.28 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value China Yangtze Power Co, Ørsted A/S, Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc, Adani Green Energy Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price R$55.15, calculated fair value R$40.28 (−27%), Quality Score 58/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AXIA3 calculated?
We run Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$40.28, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás (AXIA3)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was R$55.15. Our model-based fair value is R$40.28, about −27% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (R$23.94 to R$58.59) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás
How large is the market capitalisation of Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás (AXIA3)?
The market capitalisation of Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás is R$124B (≈ $24.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás (AXIA3)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás is 1.99 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás (AXIA3)?
Earnings per share at Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás are R$4.40 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás (AXIA3)?
The dividend yield of Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás is 10.7% (payout 134%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás (AXIA3)?
The net margin of Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás is 15.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás (AXIA3)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás is 7.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás (AXIA3)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás is 4.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás (AXIA3)?
The operating margin of Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás is 43.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás (AXIA3)?
Revenue at Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás is growing +22.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás (AXIA3)?
Earnings per share at Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás are growing +11.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás (AXIA3) carry?
The net debt of Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás is R$60.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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