Ayen Enerji AS (AYEN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 28, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Ayen Enerji AS stock TRY 33.04, price TRY 23.32, upside +41.7%, quality 43 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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SpeculativeFair value well above the price, but weak quality and no uptrend.Plus: Even on cautious assumptions the value is 8% above the price (25.30 TRY).
The stock costs 29% less than our calculation considers fair.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 3.62 TRY – 45.24 TRY · fair‑value band 25.30 TRY – 47.51 TRY · the 23.32 TRY price screens below the 33.04 TRY fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 28, 2026.
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Ayen Enerji A.S., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production, distribution, and trading of electricity in Turkey and internationally. It generates electricity through hydroelectric, solar, and wind sources. The company also engages in trading activities.
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Ayen Enerji A.S. was incorporated in 1990 and is based in Ankara, Turkey. Ayen Enerji A.S. operates as a subsidiary of Aydiner Insaat AS.
Stock analysis
Ayen Enerji AS (AYEN) currently trades at 23.32 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 33.04 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 29.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 41.87 TRY per share, and 14 of the 24 models we run sit above the 23.32 TRY price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 4.27 TRY, and 10 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 25.30 TRY (bear) to 47.51 TRY (bull), the price of 23.32 TRY sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2003: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2003.
Ayen Enerji AS reported revenue of 7.9B TRL in FY2025 versus 1.6B TRL in FY2021, a compound +49.5%/yr. Reported net income was 236M TRL in FY2025, compounding +20.6%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 6.5B TRY (≈ $130M) Micro · P/E ratio 32.8 · P/S ratio 1.04 · EPS (TTM) 0.7100 TRY · Dividend yield 1.2% · Net margin 2.2% · Return on equity 1.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 29 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at 42%, AYEN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear25.30 TRYFair Value 33.04 TRYBull47.51 TRY
Price 23.32 TRY · Upside +41.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.5875 TRY per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2003: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2003.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+69.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +39.4% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−32.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+48.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+46.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.2%
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.32% → 15%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Turkey: IMF forecast 19.3% a year to 2030, 28.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −13.7% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Renewable · 200 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score43 · Above median
Fair Value upside+41.7% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)1.1% · Below median
Return on assets0.9% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)2.2% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)−1.1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−53.4% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)1.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.27× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ayen Enerji AS Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AYEN
Frequently asked questions
Is Ayen Enerji AS (AYEN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 33.04 TRY versus a price of 23.32 TRY, about +42% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AYEN?
Our model-based fair value for Ayen Enerji AS is 33.04 TRY (as of Oct 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 23.32 TRY.
What is the quality score of AYEN?
Ayen Enerji AS has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ayen Enerji AS (AYEN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 33.04 TRY (as of Oct 28, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 25.30 TRY, optimistic scenario 47.51 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ayen Enerji AS stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 33.04 TRY, about +42% upside versus a price of 23.32 TRY (undervalued). Cautious scenario 25.30 TRY, optimistic scenario 47.51 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ayen Enerji AS (AYEN)?
Ayen Enerji AS reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 6.2B TRY (latest available figure, as of Oct 28, 2026).
Does Ayen Enerji AS pay a dividend?
Ayen Enerji AS currently shows a dividend yield of 1.19% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ayen Enerji AS (AYEN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ayen Enerji AS would have to grow free cash flow by +3.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 15.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +69.2 % per year. As of Oct 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AYEN use?
Our models discount Ayen Enerji AS at 15.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.44, country premium for Turkey. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ayen Enerji AS that is +3.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (15.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ayen Enerji AS (AYEN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ayen Enerji AS grew +69.2 % a year. The price currently implies +3.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ayen Enerji AS (AYEN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ayen Enerji AS (+3.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ayen Enerji AS (AYEN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 25.12 %: that much free cash flow Ayen Enerji AS produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (15.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ayen Enerji AS (AYEN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ayen Enerji AS it is 33.04 TRY per share (as of Oct 28, 2026), against a price of 23.32 TRY. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ayen Enerji AS stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 28, 2026, AYEN trades below its calculated fair value: price 23.32 TRY, fair value 33.04 TRY, a gap of about +42% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AYEN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (23.32 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (33.04 TRY). For Ayen Enerji AS the two are 9.72 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ayen Enerji AS worth?
The market values Ayen Enerji AS at about 6.5B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Oct 28, 2026). Per share that is 23.32 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 33.04 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AYEN?
Our models span a range for Ayen Enerji AS: cautious scenario 25.30 TRY, base 33.04 TRY, optimistic 47.51 TRY per share (as of Oct 28, 2026, price 23.32 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AYEN?
Ayen Enerji AS trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 32.8 (as of Oct 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 33.04 TRY is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.4, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 5.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ayen Enerji AS (AYEN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ayen Enerji AS (as of Oct 28, 2026): return on equity 1.1%, debt of 0.27 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AYEN from its 52-week high?
Ayen Enerji AS trades at 23.32 TRY, about 48% below its 52-week high of 45.24 TRY and 1% above the low of 23.10 TRY (as of Oct 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 33.04 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ayen Enerji AS?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value China Yangtze Power Co, Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc, VERBUND AG, Ørsted A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ayen Enerji AS stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 28, 2026: price 23.32 TRY, calculated fair value 33.04 TRY (+42%), Quality Score 43/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AYEN calculated?
We run Ayen Enerji AS through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 33.04 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Ayen Enerji AS currently trades 29 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ayen Enerji AS (AYEN)?
The closing price on Oct 28, 2026 was 23.32 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 33.04 TRY, about +42% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ayen Enerji AS right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (43/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (25.30 TRY). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (25.30 TRY to 47.51 TRY) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Ayen Enerji AS
How large is the market capitalisation of Ayen Enerji AS (AYEN)?
The market capitalisation of Ayen Enerji AS is 6.5B TRY (≈ $130M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ayen Enerji AS (AYEN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ayen Enerji AS is 1.04 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ayen Enerji AS (AYEN)?
Earnings per share at Ayen Enerji AS are 0.7100 TRY (price ÷ EPS = P/E 32.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ayen Enerji AS (AYEN)?
The dividend yield of Ayen Enerji AS is 1.2% (payout 39.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ayen Enerji AS (AYEN)?
The net margin of Ayen Enerji AS is 2.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ayen Enerji AS (AYEN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ayen Enerji AS is 1.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ayen Enerji AS (AYEN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ayen Enerji AS is 9.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ayen Enerji AS (AYEN)?
The operating margin of Ayen Enerji AS is −1.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ayen Enerji AS (AYEN)?
Revenue at Ayen Enerji AS is growing −53.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ayen Enerji AS (AYEN)?
Earnings per share at Ayen Enerji AS are growing −44.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Ayen Enerji AS (AYEN) carry?
The net debt of Ayen Enerji AS is 6.2B TRY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Oct 28, 2026