Austin Metals Ltd (AYT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Austin Metals Ltd A$0.00, price A$0.00, upside +10.0%, quality 27 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0020 – A$0.0480 · fair‑value band A$0.0020 – A$0.0022 · the A$0.0020 price screens below the A$0.0022 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
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Austin Metals Limited discovers, explores for, delineates, and develops base and precious metals in Australia. The company explores for gold, silver, copper, lead, and zinc deposits. Its flagship project consists of Austin gold project covering an area of approximately 175 square kilometres located in the Murchison greenstone, Western Australia.
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Austin Metals Limited discovers, explores for, delineates, and develops base and precious metals in Australia. The company explores for gold, silver, copper, lead, and zinc deposits. Its flagship project consists of Austin gold project covering an area of approximately 175 square kilometres located in the Murchison greenstone, Western Australia. The company was formerly known as Silver City Minerals Limited and changed its name to Austin Metals Limited in December 2021. Austin Metals Limited was incorporated in 2008 and is based in Perth, Australia.
Stock analysis
Austin Metals Ltd (AYT) currently trades at A$0.0020, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0022, implying the stock looks roughly 9.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: A$0.0020 (bear) to A$0.0022 (bull), the price of A$0.0020 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 27/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Austin Metals Ltd reported revenue of A$18.7K in FY2025 versus A$51.7K in FY2021, a compound −22.4%/yr. Reported net income was −A$6.7M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap A$6.6M (≈ $4.6M) · P/S ratio 35.5 · Return on equity −6.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −3.5% · Operating margin −117% · Revenue growth (YoY) +13.1% · Free cash flow −A$1.5M · Net cash A$71.2K.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 67% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 10%, AYT screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.0020Fair Value A$0.0022Bull A$0.0022
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.0/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −18.6% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−25.9%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−2,081.4% (2020) → −1,773.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 357 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/8 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score30 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+10.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−3.4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−117.5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth13.1% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
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Is Austin Metals Ltd (AYT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0022 versus a price of A$0.0020, about +10% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AYT?
Our model-based fair value for Austin Metals Ltd is A$0.0022 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0020.
What is the quality score of AYT?
Austin Metals Ltd has a Quality Score of 27/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Austin Metals Ltd (AYT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0022 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0020, optimistic scenario A$0.0022. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Austin Metals Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0022, about +10% upside versus a price of A$0.0020 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0020, optimistic scenario A$0.0022. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Austin Metals Ltd (AYT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Austin Metals Ltd it is A$0.0022 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of A$0.0020. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Austin Metals Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, AYT trades below its calculated fair value: price A$0.0020, fair value A$0.0022, a gap of about +10% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AYT?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0020); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0022). For Austin Metals Ltd the two are A$0.0002 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Austin Metals Ltd worth?
The market values Austin Metals Ltd at about A$6.6M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0020; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0022 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AYT?
Our models span a range for Austin Metals Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0020, base A$0.0022, optimistic A$0.0022 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price A$0.0020). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Austin Metals Ltd (AYT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Austin Metals Ltd (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity −6.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 27/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AYT from its 52-week high?
Austin Metals Ltd trades at A$0.0020, about 67% below its 52-week high of A$0.0060 and at the low of A$0.0020 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0022 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Austin Metals Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Austin Metals Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price A$0.0020, calculated fair value A$0.0022 (+10%), Quality Score 27/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AYT calculated?
We run Austin Metals Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0022, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Austin Metals Ltd currently trades 9 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Austin Metals Ltd (AYT)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was A$0.0020. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0022, about +10% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Austin Metals Ltd right now?
The models converge in a tight band (A$0.0020 to A$0.0022), unusually little disagreement for a valuation. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Austin Metals Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Austin Metals Ltd (AYT)?
The market capitalisation of Austin Metals Ltd is A$6.6M (≈ $4.6M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Austin Metals Ltd (AYT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Austin Metals Ltd is 35.5 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the return on equity of Austin Metals Ltd (AYT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Austin Metals Ltd is −6.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Austin Metals Ltd (AYT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Austin Metals Ltd is −3.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Austin Metals Ltd (AYT)?
The operating margin of Austin Metals Ltd is −117% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Austin Metals Ltd (AYT)?
Revenue at Austin Metals Ltd is growing +13.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +137%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Austin Metals Ltd (AYT) generate?
The free cash flow of Austin Metals Ltd is −A$1.5M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Austin Metals Ltd (AYT) hold?
Austin Metals Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$71.2K net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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