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Banco Bpm SpA (BAMI) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Banco Bpm SpA stock €10.64, price €13.89, that is 23.4% below the price, quality 38 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services IT · ISIN IT0005218380

Broad data Nov 3, 2026

Banco Bpm SpA

BAMI · MI

Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 23% below what the stock costs today.

Highly profitable · 36.2% net margin (TTM)

Broad data

Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +7.7 %/yr in EUR)

7.6% dividend yield · Watch coverage

Mixed vs. peers (6/14)

Moderate moat 64/100 · thin data

Neutral coverage

Fair value €10.64 · Overvalued (−23.4%)

Quality 38/100

High debt

Negative free cash flow

6 models, one by oneBear €7.97 to bull €13.29 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 38/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €1.53 – €17.18 · fair‑value band €7.97 – €13.29 · the €13.89 price screens above the €10.64 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 3, 2026.

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Company profile

Banco BPM S.p.A. provides banking and financial products and services to individual, business, and corporate customers in Italy. The company operates through six segments: Commercial; Corporate and Investment Banking; Asset Management and Insurance; Other Partnerships; Finance; and Corporate Centre.

Show moreShow less

It offers current account and digital services; safety deposit boxes; home, personal, property, and car and vehicle insurances; credit, telepass family, debit, payment, and prepaid cards; T3 Trading, web, and T3 mobile platforms; home and surrogacy mortgagees; long term car rental; personal loans, including salary-backed loan; calculate mortgage payments; mutual funds, insurance investment, saving, and certificate products; and supplementary pension securities comprising true life secure retirement and anima arts and crafts pension funds.

The company also provides business current accounts; green and sustainable, ordinary financing, dedicated, subsidized, and condominium credit financing products; international payments and collections, trade and export finance, and digital international solutions; license plate, equipment, real estate, renewable energy, operating, and nautical leasing services; POS receipts; and RIBA, MAV and SDD collections.

In addition, it offers multi-risk, personal, property, and motor vehicle insurance; corporate cards; digital services; foreign risk coverage, exchange risk hedging, and interest rate risk coverage; investment banking, including equity capital market, mergers and acquisitions, securitization, and debt capital markets; documentary box office receipts, electronic collections abroad, international guarantees, and pro-soluto assignment of export credits services; structured finances; and collection and payment services.

The company was formerly known as Banco Popolare Societa Cooperativa Scarl and changed its name to Banco BPM Società per Azioni in January 2017. Banco BPM S.p.A. was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Verona, Italy.

Stock analysis

Banco Bpm SpA (BAMI) currently trades at €13.89, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €10.64, 23% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of €13.36 per share, and 2 of the 6 models we run sit above the €13.89 price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at €3.29, and 4 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: €7.97 (bear) to €13.29 (bull), the price of €13.89 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Banco Bpm SpA reported revenue of €5.8B in FY2025 versus €4.4B in FY2021, a compound +7.5%/yr. Reported net income was €2.1B in FY2025, compounding +38.3%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap €21.2B Large · P/E ratio 10.9 · P/S ratio 3.97 · EPS (TTM) €1.27 · Dividend yield 7.6% · Net margin 36.2% · Return on equity 12.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.0%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 64 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −23%, BAMI screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €7.97 Fair Value €10.64 Bull €13.29

Price €13.89 · Downside -23.4%

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.1784 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Best data coverage

Residual Income €9.64 €11.23 €14.28 76

Gordon GGM €8.92 €17.03 €24.87 67

DDM Multi-Stage €8.92 €13.36 €17.73 67

All 6 models by family

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM €8.92 €17.03 €24.87 67

DDM Multi-Stage €8.92 €13.36 €17.73 67

Multiples

P/E Multiple €13.48 €17.98 €22.47 63

P/B Multiple €2.46 €3.29 €4.11 55

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) €4.08 €5.47 €8.16 54

Economic Profit

Residual Income €9.64 €11.23 €14.28 76

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 38/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 37

How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital

Quality Growth 27

Are margins and returns getting better?

Cashflow 0

Do the profits arrive as real cash?

Financial strength 9

Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble

Investment 72

Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?

Low Volatility 87

How calm the share price moves, does not count

Price momentum 44

Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count

Near the 52-week high 51

Distance to the 52-week high, does not count

New shares 73

Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 53/100

The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Revenue growth 1 year

+5.3%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+7.8%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+7.7%

Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.2% a year

Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

−23.0%

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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.

+37.3%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend.

Earnings per share, growth per year+29.7%

Dividend (yield on the price)7.6%

Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.29.7% vs 4.6%, picking up

Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.29% → 47%

Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 8.2%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.

BAMI screens overvalued: fair value 23% below the price. Compare with China Merchants Bank Co →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (93 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Neutral

Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.

Is Banco BPM (BIT:BAMI) Below Fair Value After Bid Resistance? Yahoo Finance · Oct 22, 2026
Banco BPM (BIT:BAMI) Stock Looks Fairly Valued After Its Huge Run Yahoo Finance · Aug 22, 2026

Note from the team Oct 11, 2026

AI conclusion: The regional Italian bank draws strength from its solid franchise and Anima-driven diversification into wealth management, yet limited durable advantages plus negative cash flows in commoditized banking remain the core weakness.

Main risk: New integration risks from the completed Anima acquisition could impair operational stability and the pursued revenue diversification in domestic banking.

Banco BPM restored its risk-adjusted capital after the all-cash Anima acquisition and has integrated the business to bolster domestic wealth management and revenue diversification. S&P recently upgraded the long-term issuer rating to BBB+ with a positive outlook, citing progress on strategic targets and a solid franchise. Will these improvements deliver more lasting stability amid sector-wide consolidation moves or expose the bank to new integration risks?

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1002 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures

A mixed picture versus its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 38 · Bottom 25%

Fair Value upside −23.4% · Below median

Profitability

Return on equity (12 months) 12.6% · Above median

Return on assets 1.0% · Above median

Net margin (12 months) 36.2% · Above median

Operating margin (12 months) 61.6% · Top 25%

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −5.5% · Bottom 25%

Dividend yield (12 months) 7.6% · Top 25%

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 1.63× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 10.9× · Cheaper than median

P/B 1.37× · Pricier than median

P/S (12 months) 3.97× · Pricier than median

EV/EBITDA 15.2× · Priciest 25%

PEG 1.81× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE (fair-value potential)2 · sector 8

FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 48

PAST (return on equity)50 · sector 43

HEALTH (low debt)18 · sector 85

DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 52

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value	Compare
Postal Savings Bank of China Co 601658	¥5.52	¥7.59	+38%	vs BAMI
China Merchants Bank Co 600036	¥42.54	¥52.73	+24%	vs BAMI
BNP Paribas SA BNP	€91.94	€106.01	+15%	vs BAMI
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP	€6.27	€4.59	−27%	vs BAMI
UniCredit S.p.A UCG	€77.18	€50.44	−35%	vs BAMI
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39	27.93 SGD	18.20 SGD	−35%	vs BAMI
Mizuho Financial Group MFG	$9.80	$5.90	−40%	vs BAMI
DBS Group D05	71.20 SGD	40.39 SGD	−43%	vs BAMI
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK	₹760.00	₹406.39	−47%	vs BAMI
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK	₹1,500	₹615.63	−59%	vs BAMI

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Frequently asked questions

Is Banco Bpm SpA (BAMI) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €10.64 versus a price of €13.89, about 23% lower (overvalued).

What is the fair value of BAMI?

Our model-based fair value for Banco Bpm SpA is €10.64 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €13.89.

What is the quality score of BAMI?

Banco Bpm SpA has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Banco Bpm SpA (BAMI)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of €10.64 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario €7.97, optimistic scenario €13.29. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Banco Bpm SpA stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at €10.64, about 23% lower versus a price of €13.89 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €7.97, optimistic scenario €13.29. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Banco Bpm SpA (BAMI)?

Banco Bpm SpA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €5.3B (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).

Does Banco Bpm SpA pay a dividend?

Banco Bpm SpA currently shows a dividend yield of 7.63% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).

What is the intrinsic value of Banco Bpm SpA (BAMI)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Banco Bpm SpA it is €10.64 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of €13.89. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is Banco Bpm SpA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Nov 3, 2026, BAMI trades above its calculated fair value: price €13.89, fair value €10.64, a gap of about −23% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of BAMI?

No. The price is what the market pays today (€13.89); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€10.64). For Banco Bpm SpA the two are €3.25 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is Banco Bpm SpA worth?

The market values Banco Bpm SpA at about €21.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is €13.89; our models calculate a fair value of €10.64 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BAMI?

Our models span a range for Banco Bpm SpA: cautious scenario €7.97, base €10.64, optimistic €13.29 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price €13.89). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of BAMI?

Banco Bpm SpA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.9 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €10.64 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings: 6.6. Other multiples: PEG 1.8, P/B 1.4, P/S 4.0, EV/EBITDA 15.2.

What is the PEG ratio of BAMI?

The PEG ratio of Banco Bpm SpA is 1.81 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.

How solid is the balance sheet of Banco Bpm SpA (BAMI)?

Balance-sheet figures for Banco Bpm SpA (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 12.6%, debt of 1.63 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is BAMI from its 52-week high?

Banco Bpm SpA trades at €13.89, about 19% below its 52-week high of €17.18 and 29% above the low of €10.79 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €10.64 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to Banco Bpm SpA?

From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is Banco Bpm SpA stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price €13.89, calculated fair value €10.64 (−23%), Quality Score 38/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of BAMI calculated?

We run Banco Bpm SpA through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €10.64, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Banco Bpm SpA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of Banco Bpm SpA (BAMI)?

The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was €13.89. Our model-based fair value is €10.64, about 23% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with Banco Bpm SpA right now?

The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€13.29). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of Banco Bpm SpA

How large is the market capitalisation of Banco Bpm SpA (BAMI)?

The market capitalisation of Banco Bpm SpA is €21.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of Banco Bpm SpA (BAMI)?

The price-to-sales ratio of Banco Bpm SpA is 3.97 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of Banco Bpm SpA (BAMI)?

Earnings per share at Banco Bpm SpA are €1.27 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the dividend yield of Banco Bpm SpA (BAMI)?

The dividend yield of Banco Bpm SpA is 7.6% (payout 83.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.

What is the net margin of Banco Bpm SpA (BAMI)?

The net margin of Banco Bpm SpA is 36.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of Banco Bpm SpA (BAMI)?

The return on equity (ROE) of Banco Bpm SpA is 12.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of Banco Bpm SpA (BAMI)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Banco Bpm SpA is 1.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of Banco Bpm SpA (BAMI)?

The operating margin of Banco Bpm SpA is 61.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at Banco Bpm SpA (BAMI)?

Revenue at Banco Bpm SpA is growing −5.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at Banco Bpm SpA (BAMI)?

Earnings per share at Banco Bpm SpA are growing −18.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much free cash flow does Banco Bpm SpA (BAMI) generate?

The free cash flow of Banco Bpm SpA is −€4.1B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.

How much net debt does Banco Bpm SpA (BAMI) carry?

The net debt of Banco Bpm SpA is €17.5B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.

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