Banco Bpm SpA (BAMI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Banco Bpm SpA is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €1.53 – €17.18 · fair‑value band €9.64 – €18.39 · the €16.38 price screens above the €14.71 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 17, 2026.
Banco BPM S.p.A. provides banking and financial products and services to individual, business, and corporate customers in Italy. The company operates through six segments: Commercial; Corporate and Investment Banking; Asset Management and Insurance; Other Partnerships; Finance; and Corporate Centre.
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Banco BPM S.p.A. provides banking and financial products and services to individual, business, and corporate customers in Italy. The company operates through six segments: Commercial; Corporate and Investment Banking; Asset Management and Insurance; Other Partnerships; Finance; and Corporate Centre. It offers current account and digital services; safety deposit boxes; home, personal, property, and car and vehicle insurances; credit, telepass family, debit, payment, and prepaid cards; T3 Trading, web, and T3 mobile platforms; home and surrogacy mortgagees; long term car rental; personal loans, including salary-backed loan; calculate mortgage payments; mutual funds, insurance investment, saving, and certificate products; and supplementary pension securities comprising true life secure retirement and anima arts and crafts pension funds. The company also provides business current accounts; green and sustainable, ordinary financing, dedicated, subsidized, and condominium credit financing products; international payments and collections, trade and export finance, and digital international solutions; license plate, equipment, real estate, renewable energy, operating, and nautical leasing services; POS receipts; and RIBA, MAV and SDD collections. In addition, it offers multi-risk, personal, property, and motor vehicle insurance; corporate cards; digital services; foreign risk coverage, exchange risk hedging, and interest rate risk coverage; investment banking, including equity capital market, mergers and acquisitions, securitization, and debt capital markets; documentary box office receipts, electronic collections abroad, international guarantees, and pro-soluto assignment of export credits services; structured finances; and collection and payment services. The company was formerly known as Banco Popolare Societa Cooperativa Scarl and changed its name to Banco BPM Società per Azioni in January 2017. Banco BPM S.p.A. was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Verona, Italy.
Stock analysis
Banco Bpm SpA (BAMI) currently trades at €16.38, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €14.71, implying the stock looks roughly 11.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of €14.57 per share, and 2 of the 6 models we run sit above the €16.38 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €6.90, and 4 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €9.64 (bear) to €18.39 (bull), the price of €16.38 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Banco Bpm SpA reported revenue of €5.8B in FY2025 versus €4.4B in FY2021, a compound +7.5%/yr. Reported net income was €2.1B in FY2025, compounding +38.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €24.6B · P/E ratio 12.8 · P/S ratio 4.56 · EPS (TTM) €1.28 · Dividend yield 6.5% · Net margin 35.7% · Return on equity 12.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 39 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades near its 52-week high and 85% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −10%, BAMI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €9.64Fair Value €14.71Bull €18.39
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.2315 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.53/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.7%
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−23.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+36.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+29.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.30% vs 5%, picking up
Profit margin 2018 to 2023 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 39%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 8.2%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (93 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1073 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)13% · Above median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)35% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)55% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth15% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)6.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.63× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
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Is Banco Bpm SpA (BAMI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €14.71 versus a price of €16.38, about −10% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BAMI?
Our model-based fair value for Banco Bpm SpA is €14.71 (as of Sep 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €16.38.
What is the quality score of BAMI?
Banco Bpm SpA has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Banco Bpm SpA (BAMI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €14.71 (as of Sep 17, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario €9.64, optimistic scenario €18.39. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Banco Bpm SpA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €14.71, about −10% upside versus a price of €16.38 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €9.64, optimistic scenario €18.39. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Banco Bpm SpA (BAMI)?
Banco Bpm SpA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €5.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 17, 2026).
Does Banco Bpm SpA pay a dividend?
Banco Bpm SpA currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.47% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 17, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Banco Bpm SpA (BAMI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Banco Bpm SpA it is €14.71 per share (as of Sep 17, 2026), against a price of €16.38. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Banco Bpm SpA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 17, 2026, BAMI trades above its calculated fair value: price €16.38, fair value €14.71, a gap of about −10% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BAMI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€16.38); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€14.71). For Banco Bpm SpA the two are €1.67 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Banco Bpm SpA worth?
The market values Banco Bpm SpA at about €24.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 17, 2026). Per share that is €16.38; our models calculate a fair value of €14.71 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BAMI?
Our models span a range for Banco Bpm SpA: cautious scenario €9.64, base €14.71, optimistic €18.39 per share (as of Sep 17, 2026, price €16.38). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BAMI?
Banco Bpm SpA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.8 (as of Sep 17, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €14.71 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.8, P/B 1.9, P/S 5.3, EV/EBITDA 21.6.
What is the PEG ratio of BAMI?
The PEG ratio of Banco Bpm SpA is 1.81 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 17, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Banco Bpm SpA (BAMI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Banco Bpm SpA (as of Sep 17, 2026): return on equity 12.6%, debt of 1.63 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BAMI from its 52-week high?
Banco Bpm SpA trades at €16.38, about 9% below its 52-week high of €14.97 and 85% above the low of €8.83 (as of Sep 17, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €14.71 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Banco Bpm SpA?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Banco Bpm SpA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 17, 2026: price €16.38, calculated fair value €14.71 (−10%), Quality Score 45/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BAMI calculated?
We run Banco Bpm SpA through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €14.71, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Banco Bpm SpA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Banco Bpm SpA (BAMI)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was €16.38. Our model-based fair value is €14.71, about −10% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Banco Bpm SpA right now?
A fairly wide model range (€9.64 to €18.39) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Banco Bpm SpA
How large is the market capitalisation of Banco Bpm SpA (BAMI)?
The market capitalisation of Banco Bpm SpA is €24.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Banco Bpm SpA (BAMI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Banco Bpm SpA is 4.56 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Banco Bpm SpA (BAMI)?
Earnings per share at Banco Bpm SpA are €1.28 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Banco Bpm SpA (BAMI)?
The dividend yield of Banco Bpm SpA is 6.5% (payout 82.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Banco Bpm SpA (BAMI)?
The net margin of Banco Bpm SpA is 35.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Banco Bpm SpA (BAMI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Banco Bpm SpA is 12.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Banco Bpm SpA (BAMI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Banco Bpm SpA is 0.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Banco Bpm SpA (BAMI)?
The operating margin of Banco Bpm SpA is 55.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Banco Bpm SpA (BAMI)?
Revenue at Banco Bpm SpA is growing +15.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Banco Bpm SpA (BAMI)?
Earnings per share at Banco Bpm SpA are growing +89.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Banco Bpm SpA (BAMI) generate?
The free cash flow of Banco Bpm SpA is −€4.1B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Banco Bpm SpA (BAMI) carry?
The net debt of Banco Bpm SpA is €17.5B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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