BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc (BCRX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc $21.85, price $8.57, upside +155.0%, quality 74 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.13 – $19.76 · fair‑value band $9.98 – $32.74 · the $8.57 price screens below the $21.85 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biotechnology company, developing and commercializing medicines for hereditary angioedema (HAE) and other rare diseases.
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BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biotechnology company, developing and commercializing medicines for hereditary angioedema (HAE) and other rare diseases. The company markets peramivir injection, an intravenous neuraminidase inhibitor for the treatment of acute uncomplicated and seasonal influenza under the RAPIVAB, RAPIACTA, and PERAMIFLU names; and ORLADEYO, an oral serine protease inhibitor to treat HAE. It is also developing BCX17725, a protein therapeutic for netherton syndrome which is in phase 1; Avoralstat, an ocular plasma kallikrein inhibitor for diabetic macular edema that is in Phase 1; Navenibart, a monoclonal antibody plasma kallikrein inhibitor for HAE which is in Phase 3; BCX17725, an investigational protein therapeutic KLK5 inhibitor for the treatment of netherton syndrome that is in phase 1 clinical trial; STAR-0310, a monoclonal antibody OX40 antagonist for the treatment of atopic dermatitis which is in Phase 1a trial. The company has collaborations and in-license relationships with the Torii Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., Shionogi & Co., Ltd., and Green Cross Corporation; National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases; Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority; the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services; and The University of Alabama at Birmingham, as well as Albert Einstein College of Medicine of Yeshiva University and Industrial Research, Ltd. BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Durham, North Carolina.
Stock analysis
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc (BCRX) currently trades at $8.57, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $21.85, implying the stock looks roughly 60.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $47.97 per share, and 21 of the 21 models we run sit above the $8.57 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $14.22, and 0 of the 21 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $9.98 (bear) to $32.74 (bull), the price of $8.57 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc reported revenue of $875M in FY2025 versus $157M in FY2021, a compound +53.6%/yr. Reported net income was $264M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $2.5B · P/S ratio 2.67 · EPS (TTM) $−1.42 · Net margin 30.2% · Return on equity −1,925% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.3% · Operating margin 45.1% · Revenue (TTM) $941M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at 155%, BCRX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $9.98Fair Value $21.85Bull $32.74
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.82/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+94.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+47.8%
Revenue growth 31 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.9%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−981.1% (2020) → 39.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−10.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −12.6% a year for the price and −2.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (91 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Compare BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 626 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score74 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+155% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets53% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)−41% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)45% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth34% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)2.67× · Pricier than median
P/FCF7.7× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA6.6× · Cheapest 25%
PEG9.39× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100· sector 14
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 21
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 32
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
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Is BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc (BCRX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $21.85 versus a price of $8.57, about +155% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of BCRX?
Our model-based fair value for BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc is $21.85 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $8.57.
What is the quality score of BCRX?
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc has a Quality Score of 74/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc (BCRX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $21.85 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.98, optimistic scenario $32.74. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $21.85, about +155% upside versus a price of $8.57 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $9.98, optimistic scenario $32.74. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc (BCRX)?
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $941M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc (BCRX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -10.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +117.9 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BCRX use?
Our models discount BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc at 8.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.55, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc that is -10.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc (BCRX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc grew +117.9 % a year. The price currently implies -10.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc (BCRX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc (-10.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc (BCRX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.41 %: that much free cash flow BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc (BCRX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc it is $21.85 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $8.57. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, BCRX trades below its calculated fair value: price $8.57, fair value $21.85, a gap of about +155% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BCRX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($8.57); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($21.85). For BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc the two are $13.28 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc worth?
The market values BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc at about $2.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $8.57; our models calculate a fair value of $21.85 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BCRX?
Our models span a range for BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc: cautious scenario $9.98, base $21.85, optimistic $32.74 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $8.57). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of BCRX?
The PEG ratio of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc is 9.39 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc (BCRX)?
Balance-sheet figures for BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 74/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BCRX from its 52-week high?
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc trades at $8.57, about 23% below its 52-week high of $11.11 and 37% above the low of $6.24 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $21.85 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Merck KGaA, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company, Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $8.57, calculated fair value $21.85 (+155%), Quality Score 74/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BCRX calculated?
We run BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc through 21 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $21.85, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc currently trades 155 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc (BCRX)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $8.57. Our model-based fair value is $21.85, about +155% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (74/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($9.98). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide ($9.98 to $32.74). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc (BCRX)?
The market capitalisation of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc is $2.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc (BCRX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc is 2.67 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc (BCRX)?
Earnings per share at BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc are $−1.42. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc (BCRX)?
The net margin of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc is 30.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc (BCRX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc is −1,925% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc (BCRX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc is −2.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc (BCRX)?
The operating margin of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc is 45.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc (BCRX)?
Revenue at BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc is growing +33.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +47.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc (BCRX)?
Earnings per share at BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc are growing +14.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc (BCRX) carry?
The net debt of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc is $388M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 23, 2026