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Bicycle Therapeutics Ltd (BCYC) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Bicycle Therapeutics Ltd $7.46, price $3.73, upside +100.0%, quality 35 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Healthcare · US · ISIN US0887861088

BT Bicycle Therapeutics Ltd logo Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Bicycle Therapeutics Ltd

BCYC · US

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value $7.46 · Strongly undervalued (+100%)
!Quality 35/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +47.5 %/yr)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (3/8)
!Narrow moat 12/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

$61.14 $3.60 Fair Value $7.46 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.60 – $61.14 · fair‑value band $4.92 – $9.32 · the $3.73 price screens below the $7.46 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Bicycle Therapeutics plc, a clinical-stage pharmaceutical company, develops a class of medicines for diseases that are underserved by existing therapeutics in the United States and the United Kingdom.

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Bicycle Therapeutics plc, a clinical-stage pharmaceutical company, develops a class of medicines for diseases that are underserved by existing therapeutics in the United States and the United Kingdom. The company's products pipeline include zelenectide pevedotin, a bicycle toxin conjugate (BTC), which is in phase II clinical trials for the treatment of high nectin-4 expressing tumors; nuzefatide pevedotin (EphA2), a BTC that is in phase I/II clinical trials to treat Ephrin type A receptor 2 expressing tumor; BT7480, a Bicycle tumor-targeted immune cell agonist molecule, which is in phase I/II targeting nectin-4 and agonizing CD137; and BT1702, a theranostic BRC molecule targeting MT1-MMP for which IND-enabling activities are ongoing. In addition, it develops Novel CNS targets, which is in preclinical trial targeting CNS disease; Novel neuromuscular targets, which is in preclinical trial targeting neuromuscular disease; and programs that are in preclinical trial targeting radiopharmaceutical. Further, the company collaborates with biopharmaceutical companies and organizations to develop programs in therapeutic areas. It has collaboration and license agreement with Bayer Consumer Care AG; Novartis Pharma AG; Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; Genentech, Inc; and AstraZeneca AB. Bicycle Therapeutics plc was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Cambridge, the United Kingdom.

Stock analysis

Bicycle Therapeutics Ltd (BCYC) currently trades at $3.73, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.46, implying the stock looks roughly 50.0% undervalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $4.92 (bear) to $9.32 (bull), the price of $3.73 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Bicycle Therapeutics Ltd reported revenue of $72.6M in FY2025 versus $11.7M in FY2021, a compound +57.8%/yr. Reported net income was −$219M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $260M · P/S ratio 4.45 · EPS (TTM) $−2.73 · Return on equity −32.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −26.1% · Operating margin −8,674% · Revenue (TTM) $61.2M · Revenue growth (YoY) −78.5%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 58% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at 100%, BCYC screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $4.92 Fair Value $7.46 Bull $9.32
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $4.37 $5.85 $8.74 52
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $4.37 $5.85 $8.74 52

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 35/100

Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 14

Profitability 4
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 76
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 14
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 74
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 31
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 19
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 18
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 1
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 36
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 35/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+105.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+71.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+47.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+56.1%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−500.1% (2020) → −341.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 654 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/7 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 38 · Below median
Fair Value upside +107% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −18% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −79% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.05× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.45× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 4.45× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)98 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 23

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $522.38 $574.62 +10%
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $801.82 $1,252 +56%
argenx SE ARGX $963.79 $918.60 −5%
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,366,000 KRW 1,502,600 KRW +10%
CSL Limited CSL A$179.12 A$197.03 +10%
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY $251.65 $218.36 −13%
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $58.52 $24.22 −59%
BeOne Medicines AG 6160 HK$218.20 HK$169.72 −22%
Celltrion, Inc 068270 177,400 KRW 74,519 KRW −58%
BioNTech SE BNTX $100.87 $63.62 −37%

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Bicycle Therapeutics Ltd · Fair Value
$7.46 +50%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Bicycle Therapeutics Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BCYC

Frequently asked questions

Is Bicycle Therapeutics Ltd (BCYC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $7.46 versus a price of $3.73, about +100% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of BCYC?
Our model-based fair value for Bicycle Therapeutics Ltd is $7.46 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $3.73.
What is the quality score of BCYC?
Bicycle Therapeutics Ltd has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Bicycle Therapeutics Ltd (BCYC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $7.46 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.92, optimistic scenario $9.32. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Bicycle Therapeutics Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $7.46, about +100% upside versus a price of $3.73 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $4.92, optimistic scenario $9.32. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Bicycle Therapeutics Ltd (BCYC)?
Bicycle Therapeutics Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $61.2M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Bicycle Therapeutics Ltd (BCYC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Bicycle Therapeutics Ltd it is $7.46 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $3.73. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Bicycle Therapeutics Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, BCYC trades below its calculated fair value: price $3.73, fair value $7.46, a gap of about +100% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BCYC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.73); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($7.46). For Bicycle Therapeutics Ltd the two are $3.73 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Bicycle Therapeutics Ltd worth?
The market values Bicycle Therapeutics Ltd at about $260M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $3.73; our models calculate a fair value of $7.46 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BCYC?
Our models span a range for Bicycle Therapeutics Ltd: cautious scenario $4.92, base $7.46, optimistic $9.32 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $3.73). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Bicycle Therapeutics Ltd (BCYC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Bicycle Therapeutics Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −32.3%, debt of 0.05 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 35/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BCYC from its 52-week high?
Bicycle Therapeutics Ltd trades at $3.73, about 58% below its 52-week high of $8.87 and 4% above the low of $3.60 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $7.46 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Bicycle Therapeutics Ltd?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, Samsung Biologics Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Bicycle Therapeutics Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $3.73, calculated fair value $7.46 (+100%), Quality Score 35/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BCYC calculated?
We run Bicycle Therapeutics Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $7.46, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Bicycle Therapeutics Ltd currently trades 100 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Bicycle Therapeutics Ltd (BCYC)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $3.73. Our model-based fair value is $7.46, about +100% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Bicycle Therapeutics Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (35/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($4.92). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($4.92 to $9.32) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Bicycle Therapeutics Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Bicycle Therapeutics Ltd (BCYC)?
The market capitalisation of Bicycle Therapeutics Ltd is $260M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Bicycle Therapeutics Ltd (BCYC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Bicycle Therapeutics Ltd is 4.45 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Bicycle Therapeutics Ltd (BCYC)?
Earnings per share at Bicycle Therapeutics Ltd are $−2.73. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Bicycle Therapeutics Ltd (BCYC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Bicycle Therapeutics Ltd is −32.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Bicycle Therapeutics Ltd (BCYC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Bicycle Therapeutics Ltd is −26.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Bicycle Therapeutics Ltd (BCYC)?
The operating margin of Bicycle Therapeutics Ltd is −8,674% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Bicycle Therapeutics Ltd (BCYC)?
Revenue at Bicycle Therapeutics Ltd is growing −78.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +71.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Bicycle Therapeutics Ltd (BCYC) generate?
The free cash flow of Bicycle Therapeutics Ltd is −$253M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Bicycle Therapeutics Ltd (BCYC) hold?
Bicycle Therapeutics Ltd holds more cash than debt, $611M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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