Bega Cheese Ltd (BGA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of Bega Cheese Ltd A$3.66, price A$6.04, upside -39.4%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$2.37 – A$6.66 · fair‑value band A$2.18 – A$5.58 · the A$6.04 price screens above the A$3.66 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Bega Cheese Limited receives, processes, manufactures, and distributes dairy and other food-related products in Australia. It operates through two segments, Branded and Bulk. The Branded segment manufactures value added consumer products for owned and externally owned brands.
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Bega Cheese Limited receives, processes, manufactures, and distributes dairy and other food-related products in Australia. It operates through two segments, Branded and Bulk. The Branded segment manufactures value added consumer products for owned and externally owned brands. The Bulk segment manufactures bulk dairy ingredients, nutritional, and bio nutrient products. Its grocery categories include milk-based beverages, yoghurt, spreads, chilled juice and drinks, fresh white milk, and water ice under the Dare, Iced Coffee, Masters, Dairy Farmers, Big M, Farmers Union, Yoplait, VEGEMIT, Peanut Butter, Simply nuts, Daily Juice, THE JUICE BROTHERS, Mildura, Pura, Complete Dairy, Betta Milk, ZOOPER DOOPER, and Berri brands. The company sells its products through grocery, route trade, foodservice, petrol, and convenience channels, as well as food manufacturers. It also exports its products. The company was founded in 1899 and is headquartered in Bega, Australia.
Stock analysis
Bega Cheese Ltd (BGA) currently trades at A$6.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$3.66, implying the stock looks roughly 65.0% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of A$3.60 per share, and 0 of the 12 models we run sit above the A$6.04 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at A$1.19, and 12 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: A$2.18 (bear) to A$5.58 (bull), the price of A$6.04 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Bega Cheese Ltd reported revenue of A$3.6B in FY2025 versus A$2.1B in FY2021, a compound +14.4%/yr. Reported net income was −A$8.5M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap A$1.8B (≈ $1.3B) · P/E ratio 201.3 · P/S ratio 0.51 · EPS (TTM) A$0.0300 · Dividend yield 2.2% · Net margin −0.2% · Return on equity 0.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 44 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at −39%, BGA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$2.18Fair Value A$3.66Bull A$5.58
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.76/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.3% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.1%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
1.9% (2020) → −0.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+16.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +13.0% a year for the price and +1.4% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 652 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside−39.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)0.8% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets2.4% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)4.1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth5.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.25× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)201.3× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.88× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)0.51× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF26.1× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA15.0× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 33
FUTURE (revenue growth)25· sector 19
PAST (return on equity)3· sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)87· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)43· sector 58
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Bega Cheese Ltd (BGA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$3.66 versus a price of A$6.04, about −39% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BGA?
Our model-based fair value for Bega Cheese Ltd is A$3.66 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$6.04.
What is the quality score of BGA?
Bega Cheese Ltd has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Bega Cheese Ltd (BGA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$3.66 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$2.18, optimistic scenario A$5.58. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Bega Cheese Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$3.66, about −39% upside versus a price of A$6.04 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$2.18, optimistic scenario A$5.58. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Bega Cheese Ltd (BGA)?
Bega Cheese Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$3.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Bega Cheese Ltd pay a dividend?
Bega Cheese Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.15% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Bega Cheese Ltd (BGA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Bega Cheese Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +16.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +18.9 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BGA use?
Our models discount Bega Cheese Ltd at 10.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.62, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Bega Cheese Ltd that is +16.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Bega Cheese Ltd (BGA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Bega Cheese Ltd grew +18.9 % a year. The price currently implies +16.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Bega Cheese Ltd (BGA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Bega Cheese Ltd (+16.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Bega Cheese Ltd (BGA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.83 %: that much free cash flow Bega Cheese Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Bega Cheese Ltd (BGA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Bega Cheese Ltd it is A$3.66 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of A$6.04. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Bega Cheese Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, BGA trades above its calculated fair value: price A$6.04, fair value A$3.66, a gap of about −39% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BGA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$6.04); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$3.66). For Bega Cheese Ltd the two are A$2.38 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Bega Cheese Ltd worth?
The market values Bega Cheese Ltd at about A$1.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is A$6.04; our models calculate a fair value of A$3.66 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BGA?
Our models span a range for Bega Cheese Ltd: cautious scenario A$2.18, base A$3.66, optimistic A$5.58 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price A$6.04). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BGA?
Bega Cheese Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 201.3 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$3.66 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.9, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 15.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Bega Cheese Ltd (BGA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Bega Cheese Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 0.8%, debt of 0.25 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BGA from its 52-week high?
Bega Cheese Ltd trades at A$6.04, about 9% below its 52-week high of A$6.66 and 22% above the low of A$4.94 (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$3.66 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Bega Cheese Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Bega Cheese Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price A$6.04, calculated fair value A$3.66 (−39%), Quality Score 57/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BGA calculated?
We run Bega Cheese Ltd through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$3.66, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Bega Cheese Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Bega Cheese Ltd (BGA)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was A$6.04. Our model-based fair value is A$3.66, about −39% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Bega Cheese Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$5.58). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (A$2.18 to A$5.58) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Bega Cheese Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Bega Cheese Ltd (BGA)?
The market capitalisation of Bega Cheese Ltd is A$1.8B (≈ $1.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Bega Cheese Ltd (BGA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Bega Cheese Ltd is 0.51 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Bega Cheese Ltd (BGA)?
Earnings per share at Bega Cheese Ltd are A$0.0300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 201.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Bega Cheese Ltd (BGA)?
The dividend yield of Bega Cheese Ltd is 2.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Bega Cheese Ltd (BGA)?
The net margin of Bega Cheese Ltd is −0.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Bega Cheese Ltd (BGA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Bega Cheese Ltd is 0.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Bega Cheese Ltd (BGA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Bega Cheese Ltd is 1.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Bega Cheese Ltd (BGA)?
The operating margin of Bega Cheese Ltd is 4.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Bega Cheese Ltd (BGA)?
Revenue at Bega Cheese Ltd is growing +5.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Bega Cheese Ltd (BGA)?
Earnings per share at Bega Cheese Ltd are growing +56.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Bega Cheese Ltd (BGA) carry?
The net debt of Bega Cheese Ltd is A$319M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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