Bega Cheese Limited (BGA) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · AU · Market cap A$1.9B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price +2.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 69% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$2.64). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (A$1.17 to A$2.64) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$2.37 – A$6.47 · fair‑value band A$1.17 – A$2.64 · the A$6.06 price screens above the A$1.90 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Bega Cheese Limited (BGA) currently trades at A$6.06, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$1.90, implying the stock looks roughly 68.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Bega Cheese Limited generated revenue of A$3.6B at a net margin of 0.2%. Revenue grew 5.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.8%. Net debt stands at A$319M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$1.17 (bear case) to A$2.64 (bull case); at A$6.06, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -14% fair-value upside, at -69%, BGA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (A$3.08) versus Dividend Discount (A$1.19). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Bega Cheese Limited receives, processes, manufactures, and distributes dairy and other food-related products in Australia. It operates through two segments, Branded and Bulk. The Branded segment manufactures value added consumer products for owned and externally owned brands.
Full company description
Bega Cheese Limited receives, processes, manufactures, and distributes dairy and other food-related products in Australia. It operates through two segments, Branded and Bulk. The Branded segment manufactures value added consumer products for owned and externally owned brands. The Bulk segment manufactures bulk dairy ingredients, nutritional, and bio nutrient products. Its grocery categories include milk-based beverages, yoghurt, spreads, chilled juice and drinks, fresh white milk, and water ice under the Dare, Iced Coffee, Masters, Dairy Farmers, Big M, Farmers Union, Yoplait, VEGEMIT, Peanut Butter, Simply nuts, Daily Juice, THE JUICE BROTHERS, Mildura, Pura, Complete Dairy, Betta Milk, ZOOPER DOOPER, and Berri brands. The company sells its products through grocery, route trade, foodservice, petrol, and convenience channels, as well as food manufacturers. It also exports its products. The company was founded in 1899 and is headquartered in Bega, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Bega Cheese Limited reported revenue of A$3.6B in FY2025 versus A$2.1B in FY2021, a compound +14.4%/yr. Reported net income was −A$8.5M in FY2025.
BGA screens 69% overvalued. Compare with Nestlé India Limited →
Peer Group
Packaged Foods · 652 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND | ₹1,507 | ₹362.37 | -76% |
| Britannia Industries Limited BRITANNIA | ₹5,646 | ₹1,870 | -67% |
| Tata Consumer Products Limited TATACONSUM | ₹1,062 | ₹327.27 | -69% |
| PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk ICBP | 7,550 IDR | 12,864 IDR | +70% |
| Samyang Foods Co 003230 | 1,219,000 KRW | 1,010,543 KRW | -17% |
| Patanjali Foods Limited PATANJALI | ₹352.60 | ₹144.77 | -59% |
| Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company VNM | 61,600 VND | 52,858 VND | -14% |
| PT Mayora Indah Tbk, MYOR | 1,665 IDR | 2,699 IDR | +62% |
| PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk CMRY | 4,630 IDR | 4,350 IDR | -6% |
| Nongshim Co 004370 | 389,500 KRW | 530,619 KRW | +36% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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