Bega Cheese Ltd (BGA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 13, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Bega Cheese Ltd stock A$3.04, price A$6.63, that is 54.1% below the price, quality 57 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$2.34 – A$6.76 · fair‑value band A$1.81 – A$4.15 · the A$6.63 price screens above the A$3.04 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 11, 2026.
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Bega Cheese Limited receives, processes, manufactures, and distributes dairy and other food-related products in Australia. It operates through two segments, Branded and Bulk. The Branded segment manufactures value added consumer products for owned and externally owned brands.
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The Bulk segment manufactures bulk dairy ingredients, nutritional, and bio nutrient products.
Its grocery categories include milk-based beverages, yoghurt, spreads, chilled juice and drinks, fresh white milk, and water ice under the Dare, Iced Coffee, Masters, Dairy Farmers, Big M, Farmers Union, Yoplait, VEGEMIT, Peanut Butter, Simply nuts, Daily Juice, THE JUICE BROTHERS, Mildura, Pura, Complete Dairy, Betta Milk, ZOOPER DOOPER, and Berri brands.
The company sells its products through grocery, route trade, foodservice, petrol, and convenience channels, as well as food manufacturers. It also exports its products. The company was founded in 1899 and is headquartered in Bega, Australia.
Stock analysis
Bega Cheese Ltd (BGA) currently trades at A$6.63, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$3.04, 54% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of A$3.93 per share, and 2 of the 25 models we run sit above the A$6.63 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$1.17, and 23 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$1.81 (bear) to A$4.15 (bull), the price of A$6.63 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Bega Cheese Ltd reported revenue of A$3.8B in FY2026 versus A$3.0B in FY2022, a compound +5.8%/yr. Reported net income was A$54.8M in FY2026, compounding +22.7%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$2.1B (≈ $1.4B) Small · P/E ratio 36.8 · P/S ratio 0.55 · EPS (TTM) A$0.1800 · Dividend yield 2.0% · Net margin 1.5% · Return on equity 5.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.7% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 31 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 5% fair-value upside, at −54%, BGA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$1.81Fair Value A$3.04BullA$4.15
Price A$6.63 · Downside -54.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0186 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.73/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.2% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+14.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.12.5% vs −0.7%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 3%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+39.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +35.9% a year for the price and +1.2% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 660 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside−54.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)5.5% · Below median
Return on assets2.5% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)1.5% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)2.6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)8.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.29× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
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Is Bega Cheese Ltd (BGA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 11, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$3.04 versus a price of A$6.63, about 54% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BGA?
Our model-based fair value for Bega Cheese Ltd is A$3.04 (as of Nov 11, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$6.63.
What is the quality score of BGA?
Bega Cheese Ltd has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Bega Cheese Ltd (BGA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$3.04 (as of Nov 11, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$1.81, optimistic scenario A$4.15. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Bega Cheese Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$3.04, about 54% lower versus a price of A$6.63 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$1.81, optimistic scenario A$4.15. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Bega Cheese Ltd (BGA)?
Bega Cheese Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$3.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 11, 2026).
Does Bega Cheese Ltd pay a dividend?
Bega Cheese Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 1.96% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 11, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Bega Cheese Ltd (BGA) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Bega Cheese Ltd pays a dividend of A$0.13 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.0%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 25, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2012. The payout ratio is 72.2% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.61 times. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What growth is priced into Bega Cheese Ltd (BGA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Bega Cheese Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +39.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.7 % per year. As of Nov 11, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BGA use?
Our models discount Bega Cheese Ltd at 9.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.59, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Bega Cheese Ltd that is +39.9 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Bega Cheese Ltd (BGA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Bega Cheese Ltd grew +12.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +39.9 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Bega Cheese Ltd (BGA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Bega Cheese Ltd (+39.9 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Bega Cheese Ltd (BGA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.17 %: that much free cash flow Bega Cheese Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Bega Cheese Ltd (BGA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Bega Cheese Ltd it is A$3.04 per share (as of Nov 11, 2026), against a price of A$6.63. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Bega Cheese Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 11, 2026, BGA trades above its calculated fair value: price A$6.63, fair value A$3.04, a gap of about −54% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BGA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$6.63); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$3.04). For Bega Cheese Ltd the two are A$3.59 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Bega Cheese Ltd worth?
The market values Bega Cheese Ltd at about A$2.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 11, 2026). Per share that is A$6.63; our models calculate a fair value of A$3.04 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BGA?
Our models span a range for Bega Cheese Ltd: cautious scenario A$1.81, base A$3.04, optimistic A$4.15 per share (as of Nov 11, 2026, price A$6.63). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BGA?
Bega Cheese Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 36.8 (as of Nov 11, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$3.04 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings: 43.8. Other multiples: P/B 2.1, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 12.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Bega Cheese Ltd (BGA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Bega Cheese Ltd (as of Nov 11, 2026): return on equity 5.5%, debt of 0.29 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BGA from its 52-week high?
Bega Cheese Ltd trades at A$6.63, about 2% below its 52-week high of A$6.76 and 31% above the low of A$5.06 (as of Nov 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$3.04 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Bega Cheese Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Bega Cheese Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 11, 2026: price A$6.63, calculated fair value A$3.04 (−54%), Quality Score 57/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BGA calculated?
We run Bega Cheese Ltd through 25 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$3.04 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.3% above its aggregate fair value. Bega Cheese Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Bega Cheese Ltd (BGA)?
The closing price on Nov 13, 2026 was A$6.63. Our model-based fair value is A$3.04, about 54% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Bega Cheese Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$4.15). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (A$1.81 to A$4.15) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Bega Cheese Ltd (BGA) come from?
Earnings per share at Bega Cheese Ltd grew −11.0 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.8 %, EBIT margin −4.9 %, tax rate +0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −11.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Bega Cheese Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Bega Cheese Ltd (BGA)?
The market capitalisation of Bega Cheese Ltd is A$2.1B (≈ $1.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Bega Cheese Ltd (BGA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Bega Cheese Ltd is 0.55 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Bega Cheese Ltd (BGA)?
Earnings per share at Bega Cheese Ltd are A$0.1800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 36.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Bega Cheese Ltd (BGA)?
The dividend yield of Bega Cheese Ltd is 2.0% (payout 72.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Bega Cheese Ltd (BGA)?
The net margin of Bega Cheese Ltd is 1.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Bega Cheese Ltd (BGA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Bega Cheese Ltd is 5.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Bega Cheese Ltd (BGA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Bega Cheese Ltd is 1.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Bega Cheese Ltd (BGA)?
The operating margin of Bega Cheese Ltd is 2.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Bega Cheese Ltd (BGA)?
Revenue at Bega Cheese Ltd is growing +8.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Bega Cheese Ltd (BGA)?
Earnings per share at Bega Cheese Ltd are growing +56.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Bega Cheese Ltd (BGA) carry?
The net debt of Bega Cheese Ltd is A$334M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 13.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 11, 2026