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BHP Group (BHG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 15, 2026: fair value of BHP Group ZAR 395, price ZAR 683, upside -42.1%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Oct 16, 2026
Broad data
Oct 16, 2026
BHP Group
BHG · JSEStretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
Our calculation puts a fair price 42% below what the stock costs today.
Quality 65/100
Solidly profitable · 16.7% net margin (TTM)
Low debt
Generates free cash flow
Wide moat 87/100
Broad data
Fair value R395.26 · Strongly overvalued (−42.1%)
Weak Growth (revenue 5y −0.7 %/yr in USD)
⟳ Cyclical
Watch BHP Group for free: we tell you when fair value or trend changes.
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R244.24 – R762.03 · fair‑value band R279.52 – R520.91 · the R682.83 price screens above the R395.26 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 16, 2026.
Company profile
BHP Group Limited operates as a resources company in Australia, Europe, China, Japan, India, South Korea, rest of Asia, North America, South America, and internationally. The company operates through Copper, Iron Ore, and Coal segments.
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It also engages in the mining of copper, uranium, gold, zinc, lead, molybdenum, silver, iron ore, cobalt, and metallurgical and energy coal. In addition, the company is involved in the mining, smelting, and refining of nickel, as well as potash development activities.
Further, it provides towing, freight, marketing and trading, marketing support, finance, administrative, and other services. BHP Group Limited was founded in 1851 and is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia.
Stock analysis
BHP Group (BHG) currently trades at R682.83, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R395.26, 42.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of R499.28 per share, and 3 of the 25 models we run sit above the R682.83 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R107.50, and 22 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R279.52 (bear) to R520.91 (bull), the price of R682.83 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
BHP Group reported revenue of $58.8B in FY2026 versus $65.1B in FY2022, a compound −2.5%/yr. Reported net income was $9.8B in FY2026, compounding −24.9%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap 3.5T ZAC · P/E ratio 21.1 · P/S ratio 3.54 · EPS (TTM) R32.32 · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin 16.7% · Return on equity 24.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 23.4%.
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 56% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −42%, BHG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R279.52
Fair Value R395.26
Bull R520.91
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.16 ZAR per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF
R347.94
R508.45
R745.48
79
Growth DCF
R360.94
R513.41
R730.30
78
Owner Earnings
R278.80
R408.17
R599.20
75
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
R347.94
R508.45
R745.48
79
Owner Earnings
R278.80
R408.17
R599.20
75
5Y Revenue Exit
R208.71
R287.95
R382.10
72
5Y EBITDA Exit
R446.43
R705.70
R992.82
74
5Y P/E Exit
R347.16
R531.24
R711.88
70
10Y Revenue Exit
R251.69
R332.09
R425.34
67
10Y EBITDA Exit
R407.43
R619.17
R875.77
67
10Y P/E Exit
R344.26
R499.28
R668.56
64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
R217.08
R469.46
R597.03
66
PEG = 1.0
R73.07
R104.39
R135.71
57
EPV
R353.43
R417.29
R474.04
73
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
R159.27
R254.07
R363.48
68
DDM Multi-Stage
R159.27
R233.81
R321.95
66
Multiples
P/E Multiple
R407.02
R542.69
R678.37
63
P/S Multiple
R162.01
R216.01
R270.02
57
P/B Multiple
R361.00
R481.33
R601.66
55
EV/EBIT
R647.82
R866.57
R1,085
65
EV/EBITDA
R574.31
R768.55
R962.79
67
EV/Revenue
R142.80
R207.61
R272.41
52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
R80.22
R107.50
R160.44
53
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
R360.94
R513.41
R730.30
78
Rev-Margin DCF
R208.71
R293.81
R385.31
72
Economic Profit
Residual Income
R202.78
R246.59
R364.62
75
ROIC Compounder
R367.17
R453.37
R545.82
71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
R305.23
R436.05
R566.86
67
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
65/100
It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.
Profitability
59
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth
66
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow
79
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength
73
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment
55
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility
73
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Momentum
63
Price trend of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high
81
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares
81
Buys back shares or issues new ones?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.1%
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−2.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.3%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.48% → 43%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−0.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.0% a year for the price and −3.0% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2027 (sales)−0.6%
Forecast 2028 (sales)−1.3%
Projected 2029 (sales)−0.9%
Projected 2030 (sales)−0.5%
Projected 2031 (sales)−0.1%
BHG screens overvalued: fair value 42% below the price. Compare with Saudi Arabian Mining Company →
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 383 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Materials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value | Compare |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vedanta Limited VEDL | ₹256.30 | ₹655.92 | +156% | vs BHG |
| Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co 603799 | ¥34.08 | ¥54.86 | +61% | vs BHG |
| CMOC Group 603993 | ¥17.04 | ¥19.15 | +12% | vs BHG |
| Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 | 61.30 SAR | 67.43 SAR | +10% | vs BHG |
| Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC | ₹546.90 | ₹601.59 | +10% | vs BHG |
| Western Mining Co 601168 | ¥34.74 | ¥38.21 | +10% | vs BHG |
| Lynas Rare Earths Limited LYC | A$12.41 | A$11.82 | −5% | vs BHG |
| Korea Zinc Company 010130 | 1,009,000 KRW | 646,063 KRW | −36% | vs BHG |
| Xiamen Tungsten Co 600549 | ¥40.80 | ¥23.62 | −42% | vs BHG |
| Ivanhoe Mines Ltd IVN | C$11.60 | C$4.50 | −61% | vs BHG |
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Frequently asked questions
Is BHP Group (BHG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 16, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R395.26 versus a price of R682.83, about −42% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BHG?
Our model-based fair value for BHP Group is R395.26 (as of Oct 16, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R682.83.
What is the quality score of BHG?
BHP Group has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for BHP Group (BHG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R395.26 (as of Oct 16, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario R279.52, optimistic scenario R520.91. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the BHP Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R395.26, about −42% upside versus a price of R682.83 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R279.52, optimistic scenario R520.91. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of BHP Group (BHG)?
BHP Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $58.8B (latest available figure, as of Oct 16, 2026).
Does BHP Group pay a dividend?
BHP Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.25% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 16, 2026).
What growth is priced into BHP Group (BHG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, BHP Group would have to grow free cash flow by +12.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.7 % per year. As of Oct 16, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BHG use?
Our models discount BHP Group at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 0.82, country premium for South Africa. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For BHP Group that is +12.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has BHP Group (BHG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at BHP Group grew -0.7 % a year. The price currently implies +12.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of BHP Group (BHG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into BHP Group (+12.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of BHP Group (BHG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.68 %: that much free cash flow BHP Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of BHP Group (BHG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For BHP Group it is R395.26 per share (as of Oct 16, 2026), against a price of R682.83. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is BHP Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 16, 2026, BHG trades above its calculated fair value: price R682.83, fair value R395.26, a gap of about −42% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BHG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R682.83); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R395.26). For BHP Group the two are R287.57 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is BHP Group worth?
The market values BHP Group at about 3.5T ZAC (market capitalisation, as of Oct 16, 2026). Per share that is R682.83; our models calculate a fair value of R395.26 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BHG?
Our models span a range for BHP Group: cautious scenario R279.52, base R395.26, optimistic R520.91 per share (as of Oct 16, 2026, price R682.83). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BHG?
BHP Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.1 (as of Oct 16, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R395.26 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.6, P/S 4.0, EV/EBITDA 8.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of BHP Group (BHG)?
Balance-sheet figures for BHP Group (as of Oct 16, 2026): return on equity 24.7%, debt of 0.44 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BHG from its 52-week high?
BHP Group trades at R682.83, about 10% below its 52-week high of R762.03 and 56% above the low of R438.72 (as of Oct 15, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R395.26 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to BHP Group?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, Korea Zinc Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is BHP Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 16, 2026: price R682.83, calculated fair value R395.26 (−42%), Quality Score 65/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BHG calculated?
We run BHP Group through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R395.26, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.8 % above its aggregate fair value. BHP Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of BHP Group (BHG)?
The closing price on Oct 15, 2026 was R682.83. Our model-based fair value is R395.26, about −42% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with BHP Group right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R520.91). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (R279.52 to R520.91) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of BHP Group
How large is the market capitalisation of BHP Group (BHG)?
The market capitalisation of BHP Group is 3.5T ZAC. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of BHP Group (BHG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of BHP Group is 3.54 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of BHP Group (BHG)?
Earnings per share at BHP Group are R32.32 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of BHP Group (BHG)?
The dividend yield of BHP Group is 0.3% (payout 5.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of BHP Group (BHG)?
The net margin of BHP Group is 16.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of BHP Group (BHG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of BHP Group is 24.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of BHP Group (BHG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of BHP Group is 23.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of BHP Group (BHG)?
The operating margin of BHP Group is 43.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at BHP Group (BHG)?
Revenue at BHP Group is growing +18.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at BHP Group (BHG)?
Earnings per share at BHP Group are growing −9.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does BHP Group (BHG) carry?
The net debt of BHP Group is $4.3B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 0.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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