Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd (LYC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd A$12.04, price A$14.22, upside -15.3%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 26, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$5.53 – A$22.07 · fair‑value band A$7.08 – A$24.70 · the A$14.22 price screens above the A$12.04 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 26, 2026.
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Lynas Rare Earths Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, mining, extraction, and processing of rare earth minerals in Australia and Malaysia.
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Lynas Rare Earths Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, mining, extraction, and processing of rare earth minerals in Australia and Malaysia. The company holds interests in the Mt Weld rare earths mine and concentration plant near Laverton in Western Australia; a rare earths processing facility in Kalgoorlie, Western Australia; and an advanced materials plant in Gebeng, Malaysia. It also offers light rare earths, including lanthanum, cerium, praseodymium, and neodymium; and heavy rare earth, comprising of samarium, europium, gadolinium, terbium, and dysprosium. In addition, the company develops and operates advanced material processing and concentration plants, as well as offers corporate services. The company was formerly known as Lynas Corporation Limited and changed its name to Lynas Corporation Limited in November 2020. Lynas Rare Earths Limited was incorporated in 1983 and is headquartered in Perth, Australia.
Stock analysis
Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd (LYC) currently trades at A$14.22, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$12.04, implying the stock looks roughly 18.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of A$9.51 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the A$14.22 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$2.32, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$7.08 (bear) to A$24.70 (bull), the price of A$14.22 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd reported revenue of A$978M in FY2026 versus A$920M in FY2022, a compound +1.5%/yr. Reported net income was A$222M in FY2026, compounding −19.9%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$14.5B (≈ $10.2B) · P/E ratio 65.4 · P/S ratio 14.9 · EPS (TTM) A$0.2175 · Net margin 22.7% · Return on equity 7.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.0% · Operating margin 28.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at −15%, LYC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$7.08Fair Value A$12.04Bull A$24.70
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 3 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0536 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.81/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+80.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.9%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +17.7% a year
Revenue growth 31 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
−22.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−22.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.32% → 25%
2026 sits 141% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+31.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+29.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +27.8% a year for the price and +26.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 450 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−15.3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)7.6% · Above median
Return on assets4.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)22.7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)28.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth86.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.03× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
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Is Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd (LYC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 26, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$12.04 versus a price of A$14.22, about −15% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of LYC?
Our model-based fair value for Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd is A$12.04 (as of Sep 26, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$14.22.
What is the quality score of LYC?
Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd (LYC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$12.04 (as of Sep 26, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$7.08, optimistic scenario A$24.70. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$12.04, about −15% upside versus a price of A$14.22 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$7.08, optimistic scenario A$24.70. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd (LYC)?
Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$978M (latest available figure, as of Sep 26, 2026).
What growth is priced into Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd (LYC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +31.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.9 % per year. As of Sep 26, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of LYC use?
Our models discount Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.70, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd that is +31.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd (LYC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd grew +14.9 % a year. The price currently implies +31.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd (LYC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd (+31.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd (LYC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.16 %: that much free cash flow Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd (LYC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd it is A$12.04 per share (as of Sep 26, 2026), against a price of A$14.22. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 26, 2026, LYC trades above its calculated fair value: price A$14.22, fair value A$12.04, a gap of about −15% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LYC?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$14.22); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$12.04). For Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd the two are A$2.18 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd worth?
The market values Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd at about A$14.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 26, 2026). Per share that is A$14.22; our models calculate a fair value of A$12.04 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LYC?
Our models span a range for Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd: cautious scenario A$7.08, base A$12.04, optimistic A$24.70 per share (as of Sep 26, 2026, price A$14.22). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of LYC?
Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 65.4 (as of Sep 26, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$12.04 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.2, P/B 2.9, P/S 10.4, EV/EBITDA 35.2.
What is the PEG ratio of LYC?
The PEG ratio of Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd is 0.17 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 26, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd (LYC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd (as of Sep 26, 2026): return on equity 7.6%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LYC from its 52-week high?
Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd trades at A$14.22, about 36% below its 52-week high of A$22.07 and 17% above the low of A$12.19 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$12.04 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, Vale S.A, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 26, 2026: price A$14.22, calculated fair value A$12.04 (−15%), Quality Score 53/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LYC calculated?
We run Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$12.04, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd (LYC)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was A$14.22. Our model-based fair value is A$12.04, about −15% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd right now?
The model range is unusually wide (A$7.08 to A$24.70). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd (LYC)?
The market capitalisation of Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd is A$14.5B (≈ $10.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd (LYC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd is 14.9 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd (LYC)?
Earnings per share at Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd are A$0.2175 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 65.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd (LYC)?
The net margin of Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd is 22.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd (LYC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd is 7.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd (LYC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd is 9.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd (LYC)?
The operating margin of Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd is 28.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd (LYC)?
Revenue at Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd is growing +86.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd (LYC)?
Earnings per share at Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd are growing +59.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd (LYC) hold?
Lynas Rare EARTHS Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$166M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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