Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A (BMDPF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A $7.22, price $11.65, upside -38.0%, quality 42 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.14 – $94.73 · fair‑value band $6.11 – $9.85 · the $11.65 price screens above the $7.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
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Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking products and services in Italy and internationally. It operates through four segments: Retail Banking, Wealth Management, Corporate Banking, and Large Corporate and Investment Banking.
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Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking products and services in Italy and internationally. It operates through four segments: Retail Banking, Wealth Management, Corporate Banking, and Large Corporate and Investment Banking. The company offers savings and deposit accounts, cards, advanced payment systems, insurance products, pensions, mortgages, and loans, as well as financial advisory, electronic payment, self-service customer operations, and consultancy services. It also provides asset management, financial planning, consultancy on non-financial services, and fiduciary and trust services; and credit intermediation, collaboration with trade associations, factoring offers, and third-party custody and storage services for dairy products. In addition, the company offers corporate and structured finance, medium and long-term credit, and specialized support, as well as leasing and bancassurance. It serves private customers, corporate and large group clients, and small and medium enterprises. The company was founded in 1472 and is headquartered in Siena, Italy.
Stock analysis
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A (BMDPF) currently trades at $11.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.22, 38.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $7.18 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the $11.65 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $3.28, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $6.11 (bear) to $9.85 (bull), the price of $11.65 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A reported revenue of €7.0B in FY2025 versus €3.9B in FY2021, a compound +16.1%/yr. Reported net income was €2.7B in FY2025, compounding +72.1%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $37.6B · P/E ratio 7.3 · P/S ratio 2.82 · EPS (TTM) $1.60 · Dividend yield 7.4% · Net margin 38.7% · Return on equity 13.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 67% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −38%, BMDPF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $6.11Fair Value $7.22Bull $9.85
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5596 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.97/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.5% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−17.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−25.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−25.1% vs −43.4%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−35% → 23%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 56.2%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.9% a year for the price and +4.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
Compare Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1053 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−37.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)13.3% · Above median
Return on assets1.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)59.6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)48.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth95.9% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)7.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.35× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)7.3× · Cheapest 25%
P/B2.52× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)7.05× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF20.6× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA16.0× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 12
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 47
PAST (return on equity)53· sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)33· sector 84
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 52
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BMDPF
Frequently asked questions
Is Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A (BMDPF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $7.22 versus a price of $11.65, about −38% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BMDPF?
Our model-based fair value for Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A is $7.22 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $11.65.
What is the quality score of BMDPF?
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A (BMDPF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $7.22 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $6.11, optimistic scenario $9.85. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $7.22, about −38% upside versus a price of $11.65 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $6.11, optimistic scenario $9.85. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A (BMDPF)?
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €4.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A pay a dividend?
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.38% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A (BMDPF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A would have to grow free cash flow by +0.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.5 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BMDPF use?
Our models discount Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A at 9.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.94, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A that is +0.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A (BMDPF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A grew +12.5 % a year. The price currently implies +0.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A (BMDPF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A (+0.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A (BMDPF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.86 %: that much free cash flow Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A (BMDPF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A it is $7.22 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of $11.65. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, BMDPF trades above its calculated fair value: price $11.65, fair value $7.22, a gap of about −38% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BMDPF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($11.65); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($7.22). For Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A the two are $4.43 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A worth?
The market values Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A at about $37.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is $11.65; our models calculate a fair value of $7.22 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BMDPF?
Our models span a range for Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A: cautious scenario $6.11, base $7.22, optimistic $9.85 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price $11.65). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BMDPF?
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.3 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $7.22 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.5, P/S 7.1, EV/EBITDA 16.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A (BMDPF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 13.3%, debt of 1.35 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BMDPF from its 52-week high?
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A trades at $11.65, about 16% below its 52-week high of $13.92 and 67% above the low of $6.96 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $7.22 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price $11.65, calculated fair value $7.22 (−38%), Quality Score 42/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BMDPF calculated?
We run Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $7.22, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A (BMDPF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $11.65. Our model-based fair value is $7.22, about −38% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($9.85). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A
How large is the market capitalisation of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A (BMDPF)?
The market capitalisation of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A is $37.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A (BMDPF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A is 2.82 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A (BMDPF)?
Earnings per share at Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A are $1.60 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A (BMDPF)?
The dividend yield of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A is 7.4% (payout 53.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A (BMDPF)?
The net margin of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A is 38.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A (BMDPF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A is 13.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A (BMDPF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A is 0.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A (BMDPF)?
The operating margin of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A is 48.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A (BMDPF)?
Revenue at Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A is growing +95.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +21.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A (BMDPF)?
Earnings per share at Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A are growing −47.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A (BMDPF) hold?
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A holds more cash than debt, €3.5B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 29, 2026