Banco BTG Pactual SA (BPAC3) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Banco BTG Pactual SA BRL 15.21, price BRL 24.42, upside -37.7%, quality 23 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$9.09 – R$45.29 · fair‑value band R$11.41 – R$45.71 · the R$24.42 price screens above the R$15.21 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Banco BTG Pactual S.A. provides financial products and services regarding commercial, investments, credit, financing, capital lease, insurance, and foreign exchange portfolios in Brazil and internationally.
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Banco BTG Pactual S.A. provides financial products and services regarding commercial, investments, credit, financing, capital lease, insurance, and foreign exchange portfolios in Brazil and internationally. The company also offers personal investment services for a customized investment portfolio; international banking account services, including debit card, transfer, payment and receipt, and customer support services. It also provides wealth management services, such as execution, market research, educational resources and analytics, and relationship management; family wealth management; checking and savings accounts, certificates of deposit, retirement accounts, and money market accounts; real estate financing; as well as corporate loans, term loans, lines of credit, and lender financing. Banco BTG Pactual S.A. was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Banco BTG Pactual S.A. operates as a subsidiary of BTG Pactual Holding Financeira Ltda.
Stock analysis
Banco BTG Pactual SA (BPAC3) currently trades at R$24.42, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$15.21, implying the stock looks roughly 60.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of R$48.17 per share, and 3 of the 9 models we run sit above the R$24.42 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R$4.05, and 6 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: R$11.41 (bear) to R$45.71 (bull), the price of R$24.42 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 23/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Banco BTG Pactual SA reported revenue of R$115B in FY2025 versus R$16.9B in FY2021, a compound +61.4%/yr. Reported net income was R$15.9B in FY2025, compounding +25.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap R$283B (≈ $55.0B) · P/E ratio 14.7 · P/S ratio 2.05 · EPS (TTM) R$1.51 · Dividend yield 1.4% · Net margin 13.9% · Return on equity 24.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at −38%, BPAC3 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$11.41Fair Value R$15.21Bull R$45.71
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$0.8500 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.60/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+42.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+57.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+64.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in BRL ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in BRL: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+10.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9% vs 22%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.66% → 17%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 463 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score25 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−37% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)25% · Top 25%
Return on assets2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)39% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)51% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth32% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.00× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)14.7× · Cheaper than median
P/B4.02× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)6.30× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA13.1× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 32
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 91
PAST (return on equity)99· sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)50· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)29· sector 41
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Banco BTG Pactual SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BPAC3
Frequently asked questions
Is Banco BTG Pactual SA (BPAC3) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$15.21 versus a price of R$24.42, about −38% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BPAC3?
Our model-based fair value for Banco BTG Pactual SA is R$15.21 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$24.42.
What is the quality score of BPAC3?
Banco BTG Pactual SA has a Quality Score of 23/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Banco BTG Pactual SA (BPAC3)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$15.21 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$11.41, optimistic scenario R$45.71. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Banco BTG Pactual SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$15.21, about −38% upside versus a price of R$24.42 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$11.41, optimistic scenario R$45.71. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Banco BTG Pactual SA (BPAC3)?
Banco BTG Pactual SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$44.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Banco BTG Pactual SA pay a dividend?
Banco BTG Pactual SA currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.43% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Banco BTG Pactual SA (BPAC3)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Banco BTG Pactual SA it is R$15.21 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of R$24.42. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Banco BTG Pactual SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, BPAC3 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$24.42, fair value R$15.21, a gap of about −38% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BPAC3?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$24.42); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$15.21). For Banco BTG Pactual SA the two are R$9.21 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Banco BTG Pactual SA worth?
The market values Banco BTG Pactual SA at about R$283B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is R$24.42; our models calculate a fair value of R$15.21 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BPAC3?
Our models span a range for Banco BTG Pactual SA: cautious scenario R$11.41, base R$15.21, optimistic R$45.71 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price R$24.42). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BPAC3?
Banco BTG Pactual SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$15.21 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.0, P/S 6.3, EV/EBITDA 13.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Banco BTG Pactual SA (BPAC3)?
Balance-sheet figures for Banco BTG Pactual SA (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 24.8%, debt of 1.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 23/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BPAC3 from its 52-week high?
Banco BTG Pactual SA trades at R$24.42, about 46% below its 52-week high of R$45.29 and 19% above the low of R$20.56 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$15.21 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Banco BTG Pactual SA?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company,, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Banco BTG Pactual SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price R$24.42, calculated fair value R$15.21 (−38%), Quality Score 23/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BPAC3 calculated?
We run Banco BTG Pactual SA through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$15.21, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Banco BTG Pactual SA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Banco BTG Pactual SA (BPAC3)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was R$24.42. Our model-based fair value is R$15.21, about −38% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Banco BTG Pactual SA right now?
Weak quality (23/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (R$11.41 to R$45.71). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Banco BTG Pactual SA (BPAC3) come from?
Earnings per share at Banco BTG Pactual SA grew +13.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +28.2 %, EBIT margin −9.2 %, tax rate −1.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Banco BTG Pactual SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Banco BTG Pactual SA (BPAC3)?
The market capitalisation of Banco BTG Pactual SA is R$283B (≈ $55.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Banco BTG Pactual SA (BPAC3)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Banco BTG Pactual SA is 2.05 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Banco BTG Pactual SA (BPAC3)?
Earnings per share at Banco BTG Pactual SA are R$1.51 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Banco BTG Pactual SA (BPAC3)?
The dividend yield of Banco BTG Pactual SA is 1.4% (payout 23.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Banco BTG Pactual SA (BPAC3)?
The net margin of Banco BTG Pactual SA is 13.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Banco BTG Pactual SA (BPAC3)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Banco BTG Pactual SA is 24.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Banco BTG Pactual SA (BPAC3)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Banco BTG Pactual SA is 2.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Banco BTG Pactual SA (BPAC3)?
The operating margin of Banco BTG Pactual SA is 51.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Banco BTG Pactual SA (BPAC3)?
Revenue at Banco BTG Pactual SA is growing +31.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +57.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Banco BTG Pactual SA (BPAC3)?
Earnings per share at Banco BTG Pactual SA are growing +39.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Banco BTG Pactual SA (BPAC3) generate?
The free cash flow of Banco BTG Pactual SA is −R$26.5B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Banco BTG Pactual SA (BPAC3) carry?
The net debt of Banco BTG Pactual SA is R$23.0B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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