BP p.l.c (BPAQF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of BP p.l.c $2.10, price $7.34, upside -71.4%, quality 55 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.82 – $7.92 · the $7.34 price screens above the $2.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
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BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, engages in the oil and gas business worldwide. The company operates through Gas & Low Carbon Energy, Oil Production & Operations, and Customers & Products segments. It engages in the production of natural gas, marketing, and trading activities, as well as solar, wind, and hydrogen businesses.
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BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, engages in the oil and gas business worldwide. The company operates through Gas & Low Carbon Energy, Oil Production & Operations, and Customers & Products segments. It engages in the production of natural gas, marketing, and trading activities, as well as solar, wind, and hydrogen businesses. The company also offers aviation fuel products and services, such as jet fuel; aviation gasoline; UL91 aviation fuel; and sustainable aviation fuel. In addition, it engages in the convenience and retail fuel; EV charging; Castrol lubricants and fluids; B2B; midstream; crude oil production; refining and oil trading; and bioenergy businesses. The company was founded in 1908 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
BP p.l.c (BPAQF) currently trades at $7.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.10, 71.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $12.50 per share, and 10 of the 25 models we run sit above the $7.34 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $2.12, and 15 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
BP p.l.c reported revenue of $189B in FY2025 versus $158B in FY2021, a compound +4.7%/yr. Reported net income was $55.0M in FY2025, compounding −70.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $117B · P/E ratio 35.0 · P/S ratio 0.01 · EPS (TTM) $0.2100 · Dividend yield 4.5% · Net margin 0.0% · Return on equity 5.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −13% fair-value upside, at −71%, BPAQF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $2.10Fair Value $2.10Bull $2.10
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.6% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−54.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−58.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−58.6% vs −28.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.0% → 8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 4.7%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−0.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−4.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −2.8% a year for the price and −6.3% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Integrated · 45 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Below median
Fair Value upside−44.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5.8% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets4.0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)1.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)15.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth11.6% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.03× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)35.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B2.20× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)0.61× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF10.4× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA3.9× · Cheapest 25%
PEG0.04× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 11
FUTURE (revenue growth)58· sector 98
PAST (return on equity)23· sector 50
HEALTH (low debt)49· sector 86
DIVIDEND (yield)91· sector 70
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "BP p.l.c Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BPAQF
Frequently asked questions
Is BP p.l.c (BPAQF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.10 versus a price of $7.34, about −71% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BPAQF?
Our model-based fair value for BP p.l.c is $2.10 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $7.34.
What is the quality score of BPAQF?
BP p.l.c has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for BP p.l.c (BPAQF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.10 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 25 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the BP p.l.c stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.10, about −71% upside versus a price of $7.34 (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of BP p.l.c (BPAQF)?
BP p.l.c reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $193B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does BP p.l.c pay a dividend?
BP p.l.c currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.54% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into BP p.l.c (BPAQF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, BP p.l.c would have to grow free cash flow by -0.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.3 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BPAQF use?
Our models discount BP p.l.c at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For BP p.l.c that is -0.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has BP p.l.c (BPAQF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at BP p.l.c grew +12.3 % a year. The price currently implies -0.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of BP p.l.c (BPAQF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into BP p.l.c (-0.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of BP p.l.c (BPAQF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.65 %: that much free cash flow BP p.l.c produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of BP p.l.c (BPAQF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For BP p.l.c it is $2.10 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of $7.34. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is BP p.l.c stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, BPAQF trades above its calculated fair value: price $7.34, fair value $2.10, a gap of about −71% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BPAQF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($7.34); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.10). For BP p.l.c the two are $5.24 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is BP p.l.c worth?
The market values BP p.l.c at about $117B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is $7.34; our models calculate a fair value of $2.10 per share.
What is the P/E ratio of BPAQF?
BP p.l.c trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 35.0 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $2.10 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.0, P/B 2.2, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 3.9.
What is the PEG ratio of BPAQF?
The PEG ratio of BP p.l.c is 0.04 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 29, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of BP p.l.c (BPAQF)?
Balance-sheet figures for BP p.l.c (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 5.8%, debt of 1.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BPAQF from its 52-week high?
BP p.l.c trades at $7.34, about 7% below its 52-week high of $7.92 and 40% above the low of $5.25 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.10 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to BP p.l.c?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Saudi Arabian Oil Company, Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation, PetroChina Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is BP p.l.c stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price $7.34, calculated fair value $2.10 (−71%), Quality Score 55/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BPAQF calculated?
We run BP p.l.c through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.10, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. BP p.l.c itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of BP p.l.c (BPAQF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $7.34. Our model-based fair value is $2.10, about −71% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with BP p.l.c right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.10). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of BP p.l.c
How large is the market capitalisation of BP p.l.c (BPAQF)?
The market capitalisation of BP p.l.c is $117B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of BP p.l.c (BPAQF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of BP p.l.c is 0.01 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of BP p.l.c (BPAQF)?
Earnings per share at BP p.l.c are $0.2100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 35.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of BP p.l.c (BPAQF)?
The dividend yield of BP p.l.c is 4.5% (payout 159%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of BP p.l.c (BPAQF)?
The net margin of BP p.l.c is 0.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of BP p.l.c (BPAQF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of BP p.l.c is 5.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of BP p.l.c (BPAQF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of BP p.l.c is 10.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of BP p.l.c (BPAQF)?
The operating margin of BP p.l.c is 15.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at BP p.l.c (BPAQF)?
Revenue at BP p.l.c is growing +11.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at BP p.l.c (BPAQF)?
Earnings per share at BP p.l.c are growing +475% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does BP p.l.c (BPAQF) carry?
The net debt of BP p.l.c is $36.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 29, 2026