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Banco Comercial Português, S.A (BPCGF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Banco Comercial Português, S.A $0.68, price $1.33, upside -48.9%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Financial Services · US · ISIN PTBCP0AM0015

BC Banco Comercial Português, S.A logo Broad data Oct 3, 2026

Banco Comercial Português, S.A

BPCGF · US

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value $0.6800 · Strongly overvalued (−48.9%)
!Quality 57/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +15.1 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 29.3% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓2.6% dividend yield · Well covered
✓Wide moat 68/100
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$6.30 $0.0677 Fair Value $0.6800 Jul 2015 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 3, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.0677 – $6.30 · fair‑value band $0.5700 – $0.8800 · the $1.33 price screens above the $0.6800 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Oct 3, 2026.

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Company profile

Banco Comercial Português, S.A. engages in the provision of various banking and financial products and services in Portugal and internationally. The company operates through Retail Banking; Companies and Corporate; Private Banking; International Business, and Other segments.

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Banco Comercial Português, S.A. engages in the provision of various banking and financial products and services in Portugal and internationally. The company operates through Retail Banking; Companies and Corporate; Private Banking; International Business, and Other segments. It offers a range of financial products and services, including current accounts, payment systems, savings and investment products, private banking, asset management, and investment banking services, such as mortgage loans, personal loans, commercial banking, leasing, factoring, insurance, and other products. The company is also involved in the provision of investment fund and real estate management, e-commerce, web portal, leasing, consulting, brokerage, marketing, and real estate investment fund management services; and internet, telephone, and mobile banking services as well as buying and selling real estate. In addition, it offers credit, debit, and prepaid cards; personal, mortgage, car loan, and salary loan; health, car, life, travel, personal accident, home, pet, work accident, payment protection, and transportation and repatriation insurance; retirement services; structured products, discretionary management, investment funds, and other technology and services. Further, the company provides short, medium, and long term financing solutions; internacional operations financing; and treasury services. Banco Comercial Português, S.A. was incorporated in 1985 and is based in Porto, Portugal.

Stock analysis

Banco Comercial Português, S.A (BPCGF) currently trades at $1.33, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.6800, 48.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $0.8300 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $1.33 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.4000, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $0.5700 (bear) to $0.8800 (bull), the price of $1.33 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Banco Comercial Português, S.A reported revenue of €5.4B in FY2025 versus €2.6B in FY2021, a compound +19.7%/yr. Reported net income was €1.0B in FY2025, compounding +64.8%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.

Key figures

Market cap $20.5B · P/E ratio 16.6 · P/S ratio 3.13 · EPS (TTM) $0.0800 · Dividend yield 2.6% · Net margin 18.9% · Return on equity 13.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.0%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 59% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −49%, BPCGF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.5700 Fair Value $0.6800 Bull $0.8800
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0348 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $0.5700 $0.6700 $0.8700 76
Gordon GGM $0.3100 $0.4200 $0.5400 69
DDM Multi-Stage $0.3100 $0.4300 $0.5700 67
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $0.3100 $0.4200 $0.5400 69
DDM Multi-Stage $0.3100 $0.4300 $0.5700 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $0.7600 $1.01 $1.26 63
P/B Multiple $0.6200 $0.8300 $1.04 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.3000 $0.4000 $0.5900 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $0.5700 $0.6700 $0.8700 76

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 57/100

Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54

Profitability 32
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 40
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 13
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 62
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 37
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 92
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 10
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 84
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 86/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.8% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.7%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+43.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+40.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.40.4% vs 9.2%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 29%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 10.9%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.

Growth Forecast

Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−2.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−2.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −4.4% a year for the price and −4.7% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−26.8%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+5.2%
Projected 2028 (sales)+4.8%
Projected 2029 (sales)+4.4%
Projected 2030 (sales)+4.0%

BPCGF screens overvalued: fair value 49% below the price. Compare with DBS Group →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (73 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Very negative
Recent news coverage is unusually downbeat.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1053 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 57 · Above median
Fair Value upside −31.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 13.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets 1.2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 29.3% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 59.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 11.1% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.41× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 16.6× · Priciest 25%
P/B 1.99× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 4.21× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 7.4× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 13.0× · Pricier than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
DBS Group D05 78.00 SGD 40.39 SGD −48%
China Merchants Bank Co 600036 ¥40.69 ¥52.73 +30%
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €79.53 €77.12 −3%
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $11.05 $6.82 −38%
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.38 €4.06 −36%
BNP Paribas SA BNP €91.54 €105.99 +16%
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹721.20 ₹406.44 −44%
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 32.01 SGD 19.78 SGD −38%
Al Rajhi Banking and Investment Corporation 1120 63.15 SAR 36.95 SAR −41%
CaixaBank, S.A CABK €12.03 €8.46 −30%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Banco Comercial Português, S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BPCGF

Frequently asked questions

Is Banco Comercial Português, S.A (BPCGF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.6800 versus a price of $1.33, about −49% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BPCGF?
Our model-based fair value for Banco Comercial Português, S.A is $0.6800 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.33.
What is the quality score of BPCGF?
Banco Comercial Português, S.A has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Banco Comercial Português, S.A (BPCGF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.6800 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.5700, optimistic scenario $0.8800. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Banco Comercial Português, S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.6800, about −49% upside versus a price of $1.33 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.5700, optimistic scenario $0.8800. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Banco Comercial Português, S.A (BPCGF)?
Banco Comercial Português, S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €3.7B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Banco Comercial Português, S.A pay a dividend?
Banco Comercial Português, S.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.56% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Banco Comercial Português, S.A (BPCGF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Banco Comercial Português, S.A would have to grow free cash flow by -2.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.1 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BPCGF use?
Our models discount Banco Comercial Português, S.A at 8.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.83, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Banco Comercial Português, S.A that is -2.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Banco Comercial Português, S.A (BPCGF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Banco Comercial Português, S.A grew +15.1 % a year. The price currently implies -2.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Banco Comercial Português, S.A (BPCGF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Banco Comercial Português, S.A (-2.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Banco Comercial Português, S.A (BPCGF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.46 %: that much free cash flow Banco Comercial Português, S.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Banco Comercial Português, S.A (BPCGF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Banco Comercial Português, S.A it is $0.6800 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $1.33. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Banco Comercial Português, S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, BPCGF trades above its calculated fair value: price $1.33, fair value $0.6800, a gap of about −49% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BPCGF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.33); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.6800). For Banco Comercial Português, S.A the two are $0.6500 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Banco Comercial Português, S.A worth?
The market values Banco Comercial Português, S.A at about $20.5B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $1.33; our models calculate a fair value of $0.6800 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BPCGF?
Our models span a range for Banco Comercial Português, S.A: cautious scenario $0.5700, base $0.6800, optimistic $0.8800 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $1.33). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BPCGF?
Banco Comercial Português, S.A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.6 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $0.6800 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.0, P/S 4.2, EV/EBITDA 13.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Banco Comercial Português, S.A (BPCGF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Banco Comercial Português, S.A (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 13.6%, debt of 1.41 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BPCGF from its 52-week high?
Banco Comercial Português, S.A trades at $1.33, about 3% below its 52-week high of $1.37 and 59% above the low of $0.8361 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.6800 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Banco Comercial Português, S.A?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Banco Comercial Português, S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $1.33, calculated fair value $0.6800 (−49%), Quality Score 57/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BPCGF calculated?
We run Banco Comercial Português, S.A through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.6800, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Banco Comercial Português, S.A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Banco Comercial Português, S.A (BPCGF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $1.33. Our model-based fair value is $0.6800, about −49% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Banco Comercial Português, S.A right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.8800). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of Banco Comercial Português, S.A

How large is the market capitalisation of Banco Comercial Português, S.A (BPCGF)?
The market capitalisation of Banco Comercial Português, S.A is $20.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Banco Comercial Português, S.A (BPCGF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Banco Comercial Português, S.A is 3.13 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Banco Comercial Português, S.A (BPCGF)?
Earnings per share at Banco Comercial Português, S.A are $0.0800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Banco Comercial Português, S.A (BPCGF)?
The dividend yield of Banco Comercial Português, S.A is 2.6% (payout 42.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Banco Comercial Português, S.A (BPCGF)?
The net margin of Banco Comercial Português, S.A is 18.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Banco Comercial Português, S.A (BPCGF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Banco Comercial Português, S.A is 13.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Banco Comercial Português, S.A (BPCGF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Banco Comercial Português, S.A is 1.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Banco Comercial Português, S.A (BPCGF)?
The operating margin of Banco Comercial Português, S.A is 59.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Banco Comercial Português, S.A (BPCGF)?
Revenue at Banco Comercial Português, S.A is growing +11.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Banco Comercial Português, S.A (BPCGF)?
Earnings per share at Banco Comercial Português, S.A are growing +29.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Banco Comercial Português, S.A (BPCGF) carry?
The net debt of Banco Comercial Português, S.A is €2.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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