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BPM Minerals Ltd (BPM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of BPM Minerals Ltd A$0.03, price A$0.24, upside -89.4%, quality 26 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
BPM Minerals Ltd
BPM · AUWeakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value A$0.0255 · Strongly overvalued (−89%)
!Quality 26/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 3y +92.7 %/yr)
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (0/6)
!Narrow moat 10/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0260 – A$0.5500 · fair‑value band A$0.0170 – A$0.0255 · the A$0.2400 price screens above the A$0.0255 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Company profile
BPM Minerals Limited engages in the exploration and development of mineral projects in Australia. The company explores for gold, silver, lead, copper, zinc, iron, nickel, cobalt; and platinum group elements (PGE). BPM Minerals Limited was incorporated in 2020 and is based in West Perth, Australia.
Stock analysis
BPM Minerals Ltd (BPM) currently trades at A$0.2400, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0255, implying the stock looks roughly 841.6% overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: A$0.0170 (bear) to A$0.0255 (bull), the price of A$0.2400 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 26/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
BPM Minerals Ltd reported revenue of A$66.0K in FY2025 versus A$0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −A$3.4M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap A$26.6M (≈ $18.7M) · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0400 · Return on equity −66.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −29.2% · Operating margin −17,017% · Revenue (TTM) A$43.5K · Revenue growth (YoY) −56.4% · Free cash flow −A$1.9M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −89%, BPM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.0170
Fair Value A$0.0255
Bull A$0.0255
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham)
A$0.0200
A$0.0200
A$0.0300
53
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
A$0.0200
A$0.0200
A$0.0300
53
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
26/100
Of which business quality 31 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 68
Profitability
1
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
19
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
14
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
98
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
77
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
22/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−59.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+92.7%
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−19,709.1% (2022) → −4,087.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
BPM screens 842% overvalued. Compare with PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk →
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Precious Metals & Mining · 102 stocks
Beats the industry median on 0/5 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Precious Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Materials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Valuation of the Australia market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Other Precious Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk AMMN | 4,710 IDR | 875.56 IDR | −81% |
| Hecla Mining Company HL | $19.03 | $16.28 | −14% |
| Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A. BVN | $34.70 | $28.79 | −17% |
| Sibanye Stillwater Limited SBSW | $11.41 | $15.10 | +32% |
| China Gold International Resources Corp CGG | C$43.13 | C$47.44 | +10% |
| Artemis Gold Inc ARTG | C$41.59 | C$15.84 | −62% |
| Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp TFPM | $33.73 | $32.40 | −4% |
| PT Merdeka Battery Materials Tbk. MBMA | 505.00 IDR | 83.20 IDR | −84% |
| Perpetua Resources Corp PPTA | $24.76 | $6.07 | −75% |
| Sino-Platinum Metals Co 600459 | ¥19.23 | ¥13.23 | −31% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is BPM Minerals Ltd (BPM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0255 versus a price of A$0.2400, about −89% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BPM?
Our model-based fair value for BPM Minerals Ltd is A$0.0255 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.2400.
What is the quality score of BPM?
BPM Minerals Ltd has a Quality Score of 26/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for BPM Minerals Ltd (BPM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0255 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0170, optimistic scenario A$0.0255. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the BPM Minerals Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0255, about −89% upside versus a price of A$0.2400 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0170, optimistic scenario A$0.0255. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of BPM Minerals Ltd (BPM)?
BPM Minerals Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$43.5K (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of BPM Minerals Ltd (BPM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For BPM Minerals Ltd it is A$0.0255 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of A$0.2400. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is BPM Minerals Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, BPM trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.2400, fair value A$0.0255, a gap of about −89% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BPM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.2400); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0255). For BPM Minerals Ltd the two are A$0.2145 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is BPM Minerals Ltd worth?
The market values BPM Minerals Ltd at about A$26.6M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is A$0.2400; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0255 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BPM?
Our models span a range for BPM Minerals Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0170, base A$0.0255, optimistic A$0.0255 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price A$0.2400). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of BPM Minerals Ltd (BPM)?
Balance-sheet figures for BPM Minerals Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −66.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 26/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BPM from its 52-week high?
BPM Minerals Ltd trades at A$0.2400, about 38% below its 52-week high of A$0.3850 and 823% above the low of A$0.0260 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0255 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to BPM Minerals Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk, Hecla Mining Company, Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A., Sibanye Stillwater Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is BPM Minerals Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price A$0.2400, calculated fair value A$0.0255 (−89%), Quality Score 26/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BPM calculated?
We run BPM Minerals Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0255, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. BPM Minerals Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of BPM Minerals Ltd (BPM)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was A$0.2400. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0255, about −89% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with BPM Minerals Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0255). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (26/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of BPM Minerals Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of BPM Minerals Ltd (BPM)?
The market capitalisation of BPM Minerals Ltd is A$26.6M (≈ $18.7M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of BPM Minerals Ltd (BPM)?
Earnings per share at BPM Minerals Ltd are A$−0.0400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of BPM Minerals Ltd (BPM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of BPM Minerals Ltd is −66.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of BPM Minerals Ltd (BPM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of BPM Minerals Ltd is −29.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of BPM Minerals Ltd (BPM)?
The operating margin of BPM Minerals Ltd is −17,017% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at BPM Minerals Ltd (BPM)?
Revenue at BPM Minerals Ltd is growing −56.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +92.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does BPM Minerals Ltd (BPM) generate?
The free cash flow of BPM Minerals Ltd is −A$1.9M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does BPM Minerals Ltd (BPM) hold?
BPM Minerals Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$1.8M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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