BT Group Plc (BT-A) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 19, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of BT Group Plc stock £2.40, price £2.08, upside +15.4%, quality 51 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £0.9252 – £2.40 · fair‑value band £1.27 – £3.01 · the £2.08 price screens below the £2.40 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 19, 2026.
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BT Group plc provides communications products and services in the United Kingdom, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Americas, and the Asia Pacific. The company operates through Consumer, Business, International, and Openreach segments.
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It builds, owns, and operates fixed and mobile networks; and designs, builds, markets, sells, and supports network access, connectivity, and related products.
The company also offers mobile, broadband, and landline, as well as entertainment services to individuals and households; connectivity, networking, cybersecurity, collaboration tools, cloud connectivity, and cloud services to private and public sector businesses; and managed solutions for larger businesses and public sector customers.
In addition, it provides fixed and IP voice; unified communications; mobile; fixed and networking; managed services; and security, and cloud and IoT solutions.
Further, the company develops, manages, and leases network infrastructure, including mobile cell and switch sites; and offers handsets, network equipment, consumer electronics, gaming and insurance. It provides its products and services under the BT, EE, Plusnet, and Openreach brands.
The company was formerly known as Newgate Telecommunications Limited and changed its name to BT Group plc in September 2001. BT Group plc was founded in 1846 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
BT Group Plc (BT-A) currently trades at £2.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £2.40, implying the stock looks roughly 13.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of £2.65 per share, and 11 of the 23 models we run sit above the £2.08 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at £0.8600, and 12 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: £1.27 (bear) to £3.01 (bull), the price of £2.08 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2001: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2001.
BT Group Plc reported revenue of £19.7B in FY2026 versus £20.9B in FY2022, a compound −1.5%/yr. Reported net income was £1.1B in FY2026, compounding −4.1%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap £20.7B Large · P/E ratio 19.4 · P/S ratio 1.05 · EPS (TTM) £0.1071 · Dividend yield 3.9% · Net margin 5.5% · Return on equity 8.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 44 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 37% fair-value upside, at 15%, BT-A screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear£1.27Fair Value £2.40Bull£3.01
Price £2.08 · Upside +15.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then (£0.0155 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2001: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2001.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.6%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.3% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−1.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−5.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.9%
Per share before 2001divided by the spin-off factor 1.2899
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−5.8% vs −6.7%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 18%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+6.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−0.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.2% a year for the price and −2.9% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: BT benefits from moderate organization capital via its UK network scale but suffers from weak pricing power and innovation in a regulated competitive market together with high leverage.
Main risk: SpaceX acquisition of spectrum to expand Starlink Mobile as a terrestrial competitor risks eroding market share and constraining growth in core telecom services.
BT has acquired TalkTalk out of administration to keep services running for millions of customers and protect critical infrastructure. The deal brings integration work on a business that has struggled with customer retention against stronger rivals. Our models currently see it as undervalued. Will the benefits of stabilising and combining these operations exceed the demands of the process itself?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Telecom Services · 240 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Below median
Fair Value upside+15.4% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)8.5% · Above median
Return on assets2.2% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)5.5% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)15.9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−3.9% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)3.9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.44× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Telecom Services median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "BT Group Plc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BT-A
Frequently asked questions
Is BT Group Plc (BT-A) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 19, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £2.40 versus a price of £2.08, about +15% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of BT-A?
Our model-based fair value for BT Group Plc is £2.40 (as of Oct 19, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £2.08.
What is the quality score of BT-A?
BT Group Plc has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for BT Group Plc (BT-A)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £2.40 (as of Oct 19, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario £1.27, optimistic scenario £3.01. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the BT Group Plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £2.40, about +15% upside versus a price of £2.08 (undervalued). Cautious scenario £1.27, optimistic scenario £3.01. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of BT Group Plc (BT-A)?
BT Group Plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £19.7B (latest available figure, as of Oct 19, 2026).
Does BT Group Plc pay a dividend?
BT Group Plc currently shows a dividend yield of 3.95% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 19, 2026).
What growth is priced into BT Group Plc (BT-A)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, BT Group Plc would have to grow free cash flow by +6.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.6 % per year. As of Oct 19, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BT-A use?
Our models discount BT Group Plc at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.42, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For BT Group Plc that is +6.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has BT Group Plc (BT-A) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at BT Group Plc grew -1.6 % a year. The price currently implies +6.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of BT Group Plc (BT-A) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into BT Group Plc (+6.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of BT Group Plc (BT-A)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.99 %: that much free cash flow BT Group Plc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of BT Group Plc (BT-A)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For BT Group Plc it is £2.40 per share (as of Oct 19, 2026), against a price of £2.08. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is BT Group Plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 19, 2026, BT-A trades below its calculated fair value: price £2.08, fair value £2.40, a gap of about +15% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BT-A?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£2.08); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£2.40). For BT Group Plc the two are £0.3200 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is BT Group Plc worth?
The market values BT Group Plc at about £20.7B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 19, 2026). Per share that is £2.08; our models calculate a fair value of £2.40 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BT-A?
Our models span a range for BT Group Plc: cautious scenario £1.27, base £2.40, optimistic £3.01 per share (as of Oct 19, 2026, price £2.08). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BT-A?
BT Group Plc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.4 (as of Oct 19, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £2.40 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2026 it is 11.6 (reported 19.4). Other multiples: PEG 1.2, P/B 1.7, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 5.9.
What is the PEG ratio of BT-A?
The PEG ratio of BT Group Plc is 1.24 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 19, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of BT Group Plc (BT-A)?
Balance-sheet figures for BT Group Plc (as of Oct 19, 2026): return on equity 8.5%, debt of 1.44 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BT-A from its 52-week high?
BT Group Plc trades at £2.08, about 13% below its 52-week high of £2.40 and 21% above the low of £1.72 (as of Oct 19, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £2.40 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to BT Group Plc?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value China Mobile Limited, Verizon Communications Inc, T-Mobile US, Inc, AT&T Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is BT Group Plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 19, 2026: price £2.08, calculated fair value £2.40 (+15%), Quality Score 51/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BT-A calculated?
We run BT Group Plc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £2.40, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. BT Group Plc currently trades 13 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of BT Group Plc (BT-A)?
The closing price on Oct 19, 2026 was £2.08. Our model-based fair value is £2.40, about +15% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with BT Group Plc right now?
A fairly wide model range (£1.27 to £3.01) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of BT Group Plc (BT-A) come from?
Earnings per share at BT Group Plc grew −8.5 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −0.1 %, EBIT margin −2.5 %, tax rate −1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −5.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of BT Group Plc
How large is the market capitalisation of BT Group Plc (BT-A)?
The market capitalisation of BT Group Plc is £20.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of BT Group Plc (BT-A)?
The price-to-sales ratio of BT Group Plc is 1.05 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of BT Group Plc (BT-A)?
Earnings per share at BT Group Plc are £0.1071 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of BT Group Plc (BT-A)?
The dividend yield of BT Group Plc is 3.9% (payout 44.4%, on adjusted earnings, reported 74.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of BT Group Plc (BT-A)?
The net margin of BT Group Plc is 5.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of BT Group Plc (BT-A)?
The return on equity (ROE) of BT Group Plc is 8.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of BT Group Plc (BT-A)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of BT Group Plc is 5.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of BT Group Plc (BT-A)?
The operating margin of BT Group Plc is 15.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at BT Group Plc (BT-A)?
Revenue at BT Group Plc is growing −3.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at BT Group Plc (BT-A)?
Earnings per share at BT Group Plc are growing +40.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does BT Group Plc (BT-A) carry?
The net debt of BT Group Plc is £22.5B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 12.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 19, 2026