Bitgo Holdings (BTGO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Bitgo Holdings $3.60, price $7.36, upside -51.1%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Bitgo Holdings, Inc. operates as a digital asset infrastructure company in the United States and internationally. The company offers self-custody wallet, qualified custody, liquidity and prime, and infrastructure-as-a-service to investors, builders, and other participants in the digital asset ecosystem.
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Bitgo Holdings, Inc. operates as a digital asset infrastructure company in the United States and internationally. The company offers self-custody wallet, qualified custody, liquidity and prime, and infrastructure-as-a-service to investors, builders, and other participants in the digital asset ecosystem. Its clients range from crypto-native companies that use its self-custody wallet technology to financial services firms, digital asset ecosystem companies, technology platforms, corporations, and government agencies, as well as high net worth individuals. The company's principal markets include North America, Europe, and Asia. It serves institutional investors, trading firms, investment advisors, exchanges, and developers. Bitgo Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.
Stock analysis
Bitgo Holdings (BTGO) currently trades at $7.36, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.60, 51.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 6 models at a data quality of 87/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: $2.51 (bear) to $5.31 (bull), the price of $7.36 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Bitgo Holdings reported revenue of $16.2B in FY2025 versus $926M in FY2023, a compound +317.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$14.8M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $850M · P/S ratio 0.03 · EPS (TTM) $−0.9500 · Net margin −0.1% · Return on equity −27.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.9% · Operating margin −0.2% · Revenue (TTM) $20.1B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at −51%, BTGO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $2.51Fair Value $3.60Bull $5.31
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: only 3 usable fiscal years, at least 4 required
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+64.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+14.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +60.8% a year for the price and +11.8% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 465 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score39 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−51.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−0.2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−0.5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−0.2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth79.6% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
P/B2.70× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.04× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF177.5× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 35
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 98
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 31
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 43
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Bitgo Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BTGO
Frequently asked questions
Is Bitgo Holdings (BTGO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.60 versus a price of $7.36, about −51% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BTGO?
Our model-based fair value for Bitgo Holdings is $3.60 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $7.36.
What is the quality score of BTGO?
Bitgo Holdings has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Bitgo Holdings (BTGO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.60 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.51, optimistic scenario $5.31. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Bitgo Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.60, about −51% upside versus a price of $7.36 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.51, optimistic scenario $5.31. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Bitgo Holdings (BTGO)?
Bitgo Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $20.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Bitgo Holdings (BTGO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Bitgo Holdings would have to grow free cash flow by +64.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 2 years revenue grew +317.6 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BTGO use?
Our models discount Bitgo Holdings at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Bitgo Holdings that is +64.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Bitgo Holdings (BTGO) delivered so far?
Over the past 2 years revenue at Bitgo Holdings grew +317.6 % a year. The price currently implies +64.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Bitgo Holdings (BTGO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Bitgo Holdings (+64.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Bitgo Holdings (BTGO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.57 %: that much free cash flow Bitgo Holdings produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Bitgo Holdings (BTGO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Bitgo Holdings it is $3.60 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of $7.36. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Bitgo Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, BTGO trades above its calculated fair value: price $7.36, fair value $3.60, a gap of about −51% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BTGO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($7.36); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.60). For Bitgo Holdings the two are $3.76 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Bitgo Holdings worth?
The market values Bitgo Holdings at about $850M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is $7.36; our models calculate a fair value of $3.60 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BTGO?
Our models span a range for Bitgo Holdings: cautious scenario $2.51, base $3.60, optimistic $5.31 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price $7.36). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Bitgo Holdings (BTGO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Bitgo Holdings (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −27.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Bitgo Holdings?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company,, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Bitgo Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price $7.36, calculated fair value $3.60 (−51%), Quality Score 44/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BTGO calculated?
We run Bitgo Holdings through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $3.60, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Bitgo Holdings itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Bitgo Holdings (BTGO)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was $7.36. Our model-based fair value is $3.60, about −51% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Bitgo Holdings right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($5.31). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($2.51 to $5.31) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Bitgo Holdings
How large is the market capitalisation of Bitgo Holdings (BTGO)?
The market capitalisation of Bitgo Holdings is $850M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Bitgo Holdings (BTGO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Bitgo Holdings is 0.03 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Bitgo Holdings (BTGO)?
Earnings per share at Bitgo Holdings are $−0.9500. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Bitgo Holdings (BTGO)?
The net margin of Bitgo Holdings is −0.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Bitgo Holdings (BTGO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Bitgo Holdings is −27.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Bitgo Holdings (BTGO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Bitgo Holdings is 4.9% (avg 3y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Bitgo Holdings (BTGO)?
The operating margin of Bitgo Holdings is −0.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Bitgo Holdings (BTGO)?
Revenue at Bitgo Holdings is growing +79.6% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does Bitgo Holdings (BTGO) hold?
Bitgo Holdings holds more cash than debt, $3.4B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Sep 27, 2026