Peabody Energy Corp (BTU) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Peabody Energy Corp is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $4.22 · Strongly overvalued (−85%)
!Quality 47/100(market factors 56, not scored)
!Weak Growth(revenue 5y +6.0 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -3.1% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·1.06% dividend yield
!Trails peers(4/13)
!Narrow moat13/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.62 – $39.38 · fair‑value band $4.22 – $4.24 · the $28.21 price screens above the $4.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 8, 2026.
Peabody Energy Corporation engages in the production of metallurgical and thermal coal. It operates through Seaborne Thermal, Seaborne Metallurgical, Powder River Basin, and Other U.S. Thermal segments.
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Peabody Energy Corporation engages in the production of metallurgical and thermal coal. It operates through Seaborne Thermal, Seaborne Metallurgical, Powder River Basin, and Other U.S. Thermal segments. The company operates mines in New South Wales and Queensland in Australia and in Alabama and Wyoming in the United States; mining, preparation, and sale of thermal coal, sold primarily to electric utilities; surface mining extraction processes, coal with a lower sulfur content, and Btu; and mining sub-bituminous coal deposits. It also supplies coal primarily to electricity generators, industrial facilities, and steel manufacturers. The company was founded in 1883 and is headquartered in Saint Louis, Missouri.
Stock analysis
Peabody Energy Corp (BTU) currently trades at $28.21, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.22, implying the stock looks roughly 568.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $33.07 per share, and 5 of the 15 models we run sit above the $28.21 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $2.11, and 10 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $4.22 (bear) to $4.24 (bull), the price of $28.21 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Peabody Energy Corp reported revenue of $3.9B in FY2025 versus $3.3B in FY2021, a compound +3.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$52.9M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $3.4B · P/S ratio 0.93 · EPS (TTM) $−0.9800 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin −1.4% · Return on equity −2.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.8% · Operating margin −4.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 127% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −85%, BTU screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Peabody Energy Corp reported revenue of $3.9B in FY2025 versus $3.3B in FY2021, a compound +3.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$52.9M in FY2025.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$3.9B
Latest YoY
−8.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (28Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.0%
EBIT margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−60.0% (2020) → 0.0% (2025)
Value creation/yr ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Peabody Energy Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BTU
Peer Group
Thermal Coal · 100 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Below median
Fair Value upside−85% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth4% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.09× · Below median
Valuation Multiples vs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.78× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.71× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF5.2× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA7.5× · Pricier than median
What the price implies (reverse DCF)
The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Peabody Energy Corp deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.
Implied FCF growth, 10 years-11.1 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+6.0 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+1.5 %
FCF yield on price15.38 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models8.5 %
The price demands less growth than the company recently delivered: even a weaker business would justify the price. Ranking of the largest stocks →
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE0· sector 14
FUTURE20· sector 0
PAST0· sector 23
HEALTH95· sector 93
DIVIDEND21· sector 53
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
CoalOil & gas
Similar stocks
10 more Thermal Coal stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 8, 2026).
Is Peabody Energy Corp (BTU) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.22 versus a price of $28.21, about −85% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BTU?
Our model-based fair value for Peabody Energy Corp is $4.22 (as of Sep 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $28.21.
What is the quality score of BTU?
Peabody Energy Corp has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Peabody Energy Corp (BTU)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.22 (as of Sep 8, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.22, optimistic scenario $4.24. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Peabody Energy Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.22, about −85% upside versus a price of $28.21 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $4.22, optimistic scenario $4.24. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Peabody Energy Corp (BTU)?
Peabody Energy Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 8, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of BTU?
The net profit margin of Peabody Energy Corp is about −3.1%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Peabody Energy Corp pay a dividend?
Peabody Energy Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.06% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 8, 2026).
What growth is priced into Peabody Energy Corp (BTU)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Peabody Energy Corp would have to grow free cash flow by -11.1 % per year for ten years (discount rate 8.5 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.0 % per year. As of Sep 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BTU use?
Our models discount Peabody Energy Corp at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.34, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is the intrinsic value of Peabody Energy Corp (BTU)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Peabody Energy Corp it is $4.22 per share (as of Sep 8, 2026), against a price of $28.21. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Peabody Energy Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 8, 2026, BTU trades above its calculated fair value: price $28.21, fair value $4.22, a gap of about −85% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BTU?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($28.21); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.22). For Peabody Energy Corp the two are $23.99 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Peabody Energy Corp worth?
The market values Peabody Energy Corp at about $3.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 8, 2026). Per share that is $28.21; our models calculate a fair value of $4.22 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BTU?
Our models span a range for Peabody Energy Corp: cautious scenario $4.22, base $4.22, optimistic $4.24 per share (as of Sep 8, 2026, price $28.21). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Peabody Energy Corp (BTU)?
Balance-sheet figures for Peabody Energy Corp (as of Sep 8, 2026): return on equity −2.9%, debt of 0.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BTU from its 52-week high?
Peabody Energy Corp trades at $28.21, about 31% below its 52-week high of $41.01 and 127% above the low of $12.43 (as of Sep 8, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.22 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Peabody Energy Corp?
From the same area (Energy) we also value China Shenhua Energy Company, PT Bayan Resources Tbk.,, Adani Enterprises Limited, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Peabody Energy Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 8, 2026: price $28.21, calculated fair value $4.22 (−85%), Quality Score 47/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BTU calculated?
We run Peabody Energy Corp through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $4.22, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 31.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Peabody Energy Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on <a href="/is-it-worth-investing-now/">is it worth investing now</a>.
What should I pay attention to with Peabody Energy Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($4.24). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The models converge in a tight band ($4.22 to $4.24), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
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