Peabody Energy Corp (BTU) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 26, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Peabody Energy Corp stock $6.32, price $22.36, upside -71.7%, quality 45 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value above price?No
Good quality?No
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 26, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.70 – $39.25 · fair‑value band $5.76 – $7.20 · the $22.36 price screens above the $6.32 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 26, 2026.
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Peabody Energy Corporation engages in the production of metallurgical and thermal coal. It operates through Seaborne Thermal, Seaborne Metallurgical, Powder River Basin, and Other U.S. Thermal segments.
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The company operates mines in New South Wales and Queensland in Australia and in Alabama and Wyoming in the United States; mining, preparation, and sale of thermal coal, sold primarily to electric utilities; surface mining extraction processes, coal with a lower sulfur content, and Btu; and mining sub-bituminous coal deposits.
It also supplies coal primarily to electricity generators, industrial facilities, and steel manufacturers. The company was founded in 1883 and is headquartered in Saint Louis, Missouri.
Stock analysis
Peabody Energy Corp (BTU) currently trades at $22.36, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.32, 71.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $34.87 per share, and 5 of the 13 models we run sit above the $22.36 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $2.11, and 8 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $5.76 (bear) to $7.20 (bull), the price of $22.36 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Peabody Energy Corp reported revenue of $3.9B in FY2025 versus $3.3B in FY2021, a compound +3.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$52.9M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $2.7B Mid · P/S ratio 0.70 · EPS (TTM) $−1.49 · Dividend yield 1.3% · Net margin −4.6% · Return on equity −4.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.8% · Operating margin −9.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 12 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −72%, BTU screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$5.76Fair Value $6.32Bull$7.20
Price $22.36 · Upside -71.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −3.7% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−60.0% (2020) → 0.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−18.8%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −20.7% a year for the price and +6.2% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Limited durable advantages in a commoditized thermal coal business facing structural demand pressure and margin volatility form the main weakness, while potential production gains at the Centurion metallurgical mine provide the key support for cash generation.
Main risk: Structurally declining thermal coal demand threatens core volumes and squeezes the thin volatile margins of the commoditized operations.
Peabody's earnings trajectory depends on whether the Centurion metallurgical coal mine sustains its recent production gains and reaches full run rates by year end after earlier commissioning shortfalls. Seaborne thermal volumes draw support from Asian demand and LNG price spreads, yet the higher-margin met segment carries the larger swing factor for cash generation. Will Centurion execution deliver the expected lift, or will operational variability continue to weigh on results?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Thermal Coal · 85 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score45 · Below median
Fair Value upside−72.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−0.9% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−4.6% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−9.5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)12.7% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.09× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper
P/B0.79× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)0.70× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow5.3× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA9.2× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 7
FUTURE (revenue growth)64· sector 62
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)95· sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)27· sector 58
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Peabody Energy Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BTU
Frequently asked questions
Is Peabody Energy Corp (BTU) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 26, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $6.32 versus a price of $22.36, about −72% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BTU?
Our model-based fair value for Peabody Energy Corp is $6.32 (as of Oct 26, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $22.36.
What is the quality score of BTU?
Peabody Energy Corp has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Peabody Energy Corp (BTU)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $6.32 (as of Oct 26, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.76, optimistic scenario $7.20. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Peabody Energy Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $6.32, about −72% upside versus a price of $22.36 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $5.76, optimistic scenario $7.20. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Peabody Energy Corp (BTU)?
Peabody Energy Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.0B (latest available figure, as of Oct 26, 2026).
Does Peabody Energy Corp pay a dividend?
Peabody Energy Corp currently shows a dividend yield of 1.34% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 26, 2026).
What growth is priced into Peabody Energy Corp (BTU)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Peabody Energy Corp would have to grow free cash flow by -18.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.0 % per year. As of Oct 26, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BTU use?
Our models discount Peabody Energy Corp at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.32, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Peabody Energy Corp that is -18.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Peabody Energy Corp (BTU) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Peabody Energy Corp grew +6.0 % a year. The price currently implies -18.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Peabody Energy Corp (BTU) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +13.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Peabody Energy Corp (-18.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Peabody Energy Corp (BTU)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 19.37 %: that much free cash flow Peabody Energy Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Peabody Energy Corp (BTU)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Peabody Energy Corp it is $6.32 per share (as of Oct 26, 2026), against a price of $22.36. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Peabody Energy Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 26, 2026, BTU trades above its calculated fair value: price $22.36, fair value $6.32, a gap of about −72% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BTU?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($22.36); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($6.32). For Peabody Energy Corp the two are $16.04 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Peabody Energy Corp worth?
The market values Peabody Energy Corp at about $2.7B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 26, 2026). Per share that is $22.36; our models calculate a fair value of $6.32 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BTU?
Our models span a range for Peabody Energy Corp: cautious scenario $5.76, base $6.32, optimistic $7.20 per share (as of Oct 26, 2026, price $22.36). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Peabody Energy Corp (BTU)?
Balance-sheet figures for Peabody Energy Corp (as of Oct 26, 2026): return on equity −4.8%, debt of 0.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BTU from its 52-week high?
Peabody Energy Corp trades at $22.36, about 43% below its 52-week high of $39.25 and 8% above the low of $20.76 (as of Oct 26, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $6.32 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Peabody Energy Corp?
From the same area (Energy) we also value China Shenhua Energy Company, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company, Adani Enterprises Limited, China Coal Energy Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Peabody Energy Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 26, 2026: price $22.36, calculated fair value $6.32 (−72%), Quality Score 45/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BTU calculated?
We run Peabody Energy Corp through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $6.32, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Peabody Energy Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Peabody Energy Corp (BTU)?
The closing price on Oct 26, 2026 was $22.36. Our model-based fair value is $6.32, about −72% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Peabody Energy Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($7.20). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Peabody Energy Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Peabody Energy Corp (BTU)?
The market capitalisation of Peabody Energy Corp is $2.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Peabody Energy Corp (BTU)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Peabody Energy Corp is 0.70 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Peabody Energy Corp (BTU)?
Earnings per share at Peabody Energy Corp are $−1.49. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Peabody Energy Corp (BTU)?
The dividend yield of Peabody Energy Corp is 1.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Peabody Energy Corp (BTU)?
The net margin of Peabody Energy Corp is −4.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Peabody Energy Corp (BTU)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Peabody Energy Corp is −4.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Peabody Energy Corp (BTU)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Peabody Energy Corp is 11.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Peabody Energy Corp (BTU)?
The operating margin of Peabody Energy Corp is −9.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Peabody Energy Corp (BTU)?
Revenue at Peabody Energy Corp is growing +12.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −8.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Peabody Energy Corp (BTU)?
Earnings per share at Peabody Energy Corp are growing −62.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Peabody Energy Corp (BTU) hold?
Peabody Energy Corp holds more cash than debt, $63.9M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Oct 26, 2026